FanDuel NFL Single-Game Strategy: Packers/49ers DFS Preview
Hello Grinders. FanDuel has a nice single-game contest going on for the Sunday Night game featuring the Packers and 49ers for this Conference Championships Weekend. Let’s quickly look at some of the game factors and touch on some possible roster construction options for our daily fantasy football lineups.
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The Game Environment
The 49ers enter this game as solid 7.5 point home favorites. With an over/under of just 46.5, this game is projected to be under by nearly a full touchdown compared to the Titans/Chiefs game that sports a 52.5 over/under. It makes some sense, considering both teams ranked among the top half of the league in defense.
The biggest injury news to monitor from this game is the status of George Kittle, who missed Wednesday’s practice with an ankle injury. Kittle returned to practice on Thursday as a full participant and appears good to go. On the Packers side, Geronimo Allison (illness) and Allen Lazard (ankle) missed Wednesday’s practice but return on Thursday for limited practice. Ryan Grant also returned from a personal matter as a full participant. My guess here is that both Allison and Lazard will be fine for Sunday so I’m treating them as more probable than questionable, but I’ll update the article at top if we get more news before kickoff that suggests their statuses are in doubt.
Before diving into the plays, it’s worth noting that when these two teams played back in November, the 49ers pounded the Packers 37-8. Aaron Rodgers was held to just 104 yards and a touchdown, while Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones were held to just 83 rushing yards combined on 24 carries. On the other side, the 49ers ran all over the Packers with both Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman finding the end zone while Jimmy Garoppolo found George Kittle and Deebo Samuel for touchdowns. I only bring this up because it was such a dominant performance by the 49ers. The Packers will obviously make adjustments, but so will the 49ers, so it’ll be interesting to see if the 49ers can continue their success here against Rodgers and the Packers. Let’s look at a few possible stack options that we can consider:
In this stack, I’d use Kittle as my MVP and hope he and Jimmy G connect for a big game, while I’d bring it back with Adams as I’m hoping for a negative game script for the Packers. In this stack I also wouldn’t bring it back with Adams and Aaron Rodgers, but just Adams, so you’re thinking Adams can either rack up heavy yardage or finds the end zone while in comeback mode. We’ve seen the 49ers defense be tough on non-mobile quarterbacks this season like Rodgers, so the hope is that exposure to Adams captures most of the Packers’ passing game. The correlation here is in-line with the game script Vegas is predicting, and you get exposure to both centerpieces of the passing game.
I’m really curious how the industry treats Coleman and Mostert this week as Mostert had been the clear 1A going into last week before giving way to Coleman’s hot hand. Coleman is coming off a 22.5 FD point game but is also priced at $12,000, compared to Mostert’s $10,500 salary. I think pairing both of them and soaking up close to 100% of the running back work is a viable strategy, given both should see heavy work in a possible positive game script. We also saw both have success in their first game against the Packers, so it’s not crazy to think both can find the end zone and that Coach Shanahan uses a timeshare here.
3. Robbie Gould
Neither kicker in this game (Robbie Gould or Mason Crosby) are projecting for much ownership per LineupHQ, which makes me think just playing one of them already makes your lineup a bit different. Of the two, I much prefer Gould as the 49ers have the higher implied team total and are more likely to be kicking field goals in positive game script scenarios, whereas the Packers would be more prone to go for it on 4th downs if playing from behind.
Thanks for reading, and good luck on Sunday. May variance be on your side.