Fantasy Golf: Valero Texas Open Expert Picks
The PGA Tour heads to Texas this week.
Event Preview
Course: TPC San Antonio
Description: Par 72 (10 Par 4’s, 4 Par 5’s, 4 Par 3’s)
Length: 7,435 yards
Key Statistics for the Week
1) Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
2) Strokes Gained: Putting
3) Greens or Fringe in Regulation
Editor’s Note: This article is a free preview, and will soon be a part of our DraftKings PGA Incentives. Check out the official announcement on our forums for all the details about this new offering.
Jimmy Walker: $10800
Odds to Win: 21/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 26
Strokes Gained: Putting: 10
Greens or Fringe in Regulation: 25
Analysis: I was back and forth between Jimmy Walker and Jim Furyk this week, but eventually settled on Walker because he wins tournaments. Furyk is a top-ten machine, but he has a knack of falling apart on Sundays. Walker’s statistics match this course beautifully, as he is ranked in the top 30 in strokes gained: tee to green, strokes gained: putting, and greens or fringe in regulation. Walker is a local resident that should have the equivalent of a home game this week. He has had mixed results at this tournament, but he is a different player than he was years ago. Expect nothing short of a top-ten finish this week.
Matt Kuchar: $10300
Odds to Win: 23/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 34
Strokes Gained: Putting: 18
Greens or Fringe in Regulation: 59
Analysis: This is a great week to target Kuchar when his ownership percentage will likely be lower than it should be on DraftKings. Kuchar has made each of his last 18 cuts, but is in a mini-slump by his standards. He has finished outside of the top 20 in each of his last three events. We can expect a strong bounce back performance from Kuchar this week against a relatively weak field. Kuchar is 3/3 on this course, with all three finished in the top 25. This course should fit Kuchar’s game perfectly, as it penalizes those that aren’t accurate, both off the tee and with their approach shots.
Harris English: $9200
Odds to Win: 38/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 36
Strokes Gained: Putting: 67
Greens or Fringe in Regulation: 30
Analysis: English is coming into this event in great form. He has posted four top 30 finishes in his last five events, including top-ten finishes at the Farmers Insurance Open and the Valspar Championship. English hasn’t been terrific at this event, but he has made the cut here in both attempts. This is a course that should set up well for English, as he is one of the better tee to green players on tour.
Charley Hoffman: $8300
Odds to Win: 47/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 45
Strokes Gained: Putting: 112
Greens or Fringe in Regulation: 69
Analysis: Hoffman is coming into this event in bad form, but course history trumps all in this case. He has made the cut here every year since the event moved to this course, posting top 13 finishes in all five tries. It’s hard to pass on a golfer with that kind of success on a given course. His price this week is a little higher than I was hoping it would be, but Hoffman should be in for a strong bounce back week at the TPC San Antonio.
Daniel Summerhays: $7900
Odds to Win: 56/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 85
Strokes Gained: Putting: 15
Greens or Fringe in Regulation: 44
Analysis: Summerhays is having a terrific 2014-15 campaign. He has made 11/13 cuts and is currently riding a streak of five consecutive cuts made. He is a decent ball striker and a very good putter. He also has a nice track record at this course, finishing inside the top 30 in each of the last three years. He was a runner-up here last season and will look to build on his impressive resume with another strong finish this week.
Will Mackenzie: $7300
Odds to Win: 70/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 59
Strokes Gained: Putting: 79
Greens or Fringe in Regulation: 60
Analysis: Willie-Mack is my dark-horse pick to win the tournament this week. He has posted three top-ten finishes in his last six events and he is one of those players that always seems to feast on weaker field events. Mackenzie is ranked in the top 80 in all of the key statistics this week and he had a great showing here last season, finishing T-2nd with Daniel Summerhays (listed above).
Fredrik Jacobson: $7100
Odds to Win: 81/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 161
Strokes Gained: Putting: 5
Greens or Fringe in Regulation: 167
Analysis: Freddy-Yaks is one of the best putters on tour. Year after year, he is ranked in the top-ten in strokes gained: putting. His ball striking could certainly use some work, but when you putt the way he does, he is a threat to win anytime he is striking the ball well. Jacobson has the second best history at this event (Hoffman takes the cake). He is 5/5 in cuts made with all five finishes in the top 20. He should go overlooked this week, but he will be a staple in my lineups.
Cameron Tringale: $6800
Odds to Win: 95/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 59
Strokes Gained: Putting: 100
Greens or Fringe in Regulation: 115
Analysis: Tringale is not a player that you expect to be in contention on Sunday, but you can expect him to make the cut. He has made each of his last five cuts, posting progressively better finishes in each: 69, 47, 44, 38, 17. He is also 4/5 in cuts made at this event, with two top-ten finishes. At his price point, all we need is for him to make it to the weekend. Anything above that is just icing on the cake.
Author’s Note: The stats listed above are an average of the 2013-14 & 2014-15 seasons.