Fantasy Golf: WGC-Cadillac Championship Expert Picks
It was one of the strangest weeks that we’ve ever had in weekly fantasy golf last week at the Honda Classic. The week was full of rain delays and we saw quite a few notables miss the cut. In the end, Padraig Harrington came out on top, besting Daniel Berger in a playoff. The PGA Tour will stay in Florida for this week’s WGC-Cadillac Championship.
Event Preview
Patrick Reed is back to defend his title at the WGC-Cadillac Championship at Trump National Doral. There are only 74 players in the field this week and there will not be a cut. The field includes the top 50 ranked players in the world, as well as the top money-winners from other tours around the world. This event used to be a birdie-fest, but after some major renovation to the course, that’s no longer the case.
Prior to the event last year, the TPC Blue Monster course was renovated to add both length and water. The Par 72 course now measures 7,528 yards and features water hazards that are directly in play on 10 of the 18 holes. It’s no surprise that the course played much tougher last season and Patrick Reed’s winning score was at only four-under par. That score was a far cry from the 16-20 under range that we had seen previously at this event.
Strokes gained (tee to green and putting) are always great indicators of success. Both are important stats to target this week. Total driving is another key statistic to look at. While driving distance really helps on this course, players need to stay away from the hazards. A combination of length and accuracy is preferred off the tee.
Key Statistics for the Week
1) Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
2) Strokes Gained: Putting
3) Total Driving
4) All-Around
Dustin Johnson: $11300
Odds to Win: 18/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 8
Strokes Gained: Putting: 130
Total Driving: 73
All-Around: 31
Analysis: Johnson fell apart at last week’s Honda Classic, but there were many notable players that missed the cut. The extra rest on the weekend may be just what Johnson needed. Prior to last week, he had posted back-to-back top five finishes at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am and the Northern Trust Open. Johnson should be in for another solid start this week at Trump National Doral. He has posted three top-12 finishes here in the last four years and his stats match the course perfectly.
Justin Rose: $9000
Odds to Win: 33/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 4
Strokes Gained: Putting: 108
Total Driving: 65
All-Around: 6
Analysis: Rose has had mixed results at this event in the past. In the last four years, he has had two top-ten finishes (including a win here in 2012) along with finishes of T-34th and T-42nd. Rose is one of the best tee to green players in the world (4th in strokes gained) and he’s also ranked sixth in the all-around. The fact that he has missed back-to-back cuts will throw many gamers off his trail this week, but for $9,000 on DraftKings, he will be a staple in my main cash game lineup.
Sergio Garcia: $8900
Odds to Win: 33/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 11
Strokes Gained: Putting: 32
Total Driving: 64
All-Around: 48
Analysis: By his own admission, Sergio has not played all that well recently, even though he has posted respectable finishes of T-4th and T-31st at the Northern Trust Open and the Honda Classic. Just imagine what will happen when he starts to get his confidence back. It could come as early as this week, as this is his third tournament in the last three weeks. Sergio is one of the best tee to green players in the world and his past success at this event bodes well for a top-ten finish this week.
Brooks Koepka: $8300
Odds to Win: 32/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 24
Strokes Gained: Putting: 38
Total Driving: 47
All-Around: 17
Analysis: Koepka almost gave gamers a heart attack last week with his opening 8-over on Thursday. He bounced back nicely with a 6-under on Friday to make the cut. Koepka is one of the best players in the world and it’s only a matter of time before he starts to get the recognition that he deserves here in the U.S. This will be his first time playing this course, but that’s hasn’t slowed him down at other events. He is ranked in the top-40 in all of the important stats this week.
Paul Casey: $7900
Odds to Win: 38/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 19
Strokes Gained: Putting: 29
Total Driving: 61
All-Around: 18
Analysis: Casey played his way into the field this week. His top-three finishes at the Northern Trust Open and the Honda Classic propelled his ranking to the top 50 in the world. Casey is a very good golfer and was once ranked as high as third in the world. This is a case of targeting a golfer in great form and a great price point. His Vegas odds to win this week are better than the likes of Jim Furyk, Brandt Snedeker, and Martin Kaymer and he’s considerably cheaper than all three.
Graeme McDowell: $7800
Odds to Win: 45/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 61
Strokes Gained: Putting: 1
Total Driving: 88
All-Around: 17
Analysis: G-Mac let us down last week by missing the cut by one shot. Once again, we should give him a pass, as it was a week of bad weather where a ton of big names missed the cut. McDowell should bounce back nicely this week at a venue where he has experienced some great success. He has posted four top-13 finishes in his last five tries here. He’s one of the best putters in the world and my dark horse to be in contention come Sunday afternoon.
Jamie Donaldson: $7100
Odds to Win: 40/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 85
Strokes Gained: Putting: 1
Total Driving: 183
All-Around: 99
Analysis: Donaldson is going to be the shiny play that a lot of people will gravitate to this week. Trends are converging nicely for him and he is sitting at a very attractive price point of $7,100. Donaldson finished with a solo-sixth at last week’s Honda Classic and he finished second at this event last season. Cheap price? Check! Current form? Check! History at the event? Check! Donaldson will be a popular target this week and who am I to argue against it?
Hunter Mahan: $6600
Odds to Win: 65/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 66
Strokes Gained: Putting: 36
Total Driving: 10
All-Around: 46
Analysis: In terms of value, Mahan is my favorite on the board this week. Mahan is a consistent golfer that is one of the best drivers of the ball. He is ranked tenth in total driving. He is also ranked in the top-70 in the other three important stats this week. Mahan has gotten off to a slow start in 2015, but I’m expecting a strong finish from him this week. He has posted a top-30 finish or better in each of his last five trips to Trump National Doral.
Author’s Note: The stats listed above are an average of the 2013-14 & 2014-15 seasons.