FantasyDraft PGA: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Good day, Grinders! We have a fun golf tournament this week at Pebble Beach, and the overlords have asked if I would be willing to put out a FantasyDraft-specific picks article for this week. Of course, I am always happy to talk about golf, so I agreed to do just that.
We have a strange format this week with yet another pro-am event. This time, a lot of sports stars and celebrities get the crack at being the amateurs. Some fun and levity is going to be needed, as the weather looks particularly bad for the first two days of the tournament. Rain is going to be a factor, with moderately strong winds posing their own set of challenges on top of the rain. The good news is that, because this is a pro-am, the course setup usually isn’t terribly difficult. The rough is not going to be super thick, and wet fairways and greens will help the golfers go flag hunting.
One of the unique aspects of this tournament is that it is played over three different courses – Pebble Beach Golf Links, Monterey Peninsula Country Club, and Spyglass Hill. Each golfer will rotate among the three courses on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, and the cut will not hit until the end of the third round. At that point, the top 60 and ties (NOT top 70 and ties) will play on Sunday on the “host” Pebble Beach course. If you played golf a few weeks ago during the Career Builder Challenge, this is a very similar format. If this format isn’t your favorite (it’s not mine), don’t worry, as this is the last multi-course event of the year! We can rejoice in that fact, but for now, we must play the cards we are dealt.
With the housekeeping out of the way, let’s take a look at some golfers to consider on FantasyDraft this week. I will be targeting the bigger hitters thanks to the weather and the course setup this week.
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Green Light — “All Systems Go” Plays
Dustin Johnson – $22,300 – He’s my pick of the litter at the top this week. Johnson loves this format, and it certainly doesn’t hurt that his amateur partner is father-in-law Wayne Gretzky. That’s not a bad gig, is it? Can you imagine how athletic his children are going to be? In any case, Johnson has found the confines of Pebble Beach very comfortable, as he has two wins and four other top ten finishes at this event in his career. A wet golf course will cater even more to the big hitters, and Johnson is one of the longest drivers of the golf ball on the PGA Tour. This is all setting up quite well for him, as he should rebound nicely from a missed cut at Torrey Pines a couple of weeks ago. The good news is that he won’t be paired with Tiger Woods this week.
Jon Rahm – $18,200 – In case you are new to golf, take notice that this young Arizona State alum is #good at the golf. He won two weeks ago and followed it up with a relatively quiet 16th place finish last week at the Waste Management. There really isn’t a weakness in his game. He can blister the ball 315+ off the tee and can dial in approach shots with the best of them. When his putter clicks, he is going to be in contention to win a lot of golf tournaments. Take advantage of the relatively discounted price while you can still get it.
Phil Mickelson – $17,900 – Phil apparently ages about as well as Tom Brady. The guy just keeps on keeping on, and he is playing with impressive gusto just months after surgery. He has logged three straight top 25 finishes since the calendar flipped to 2017, and he nearly won this event a year ago before blowing a fairly sizable lead on Sunday. When Phil gets his game firing on all cylinders, he is capable of winning any golf tournament, and that is certainly the case this week. His laid-back personality will help with the longer rounds that a pro-am necessiates and the bad weather that is in the forecast.
Justin Rose – $17,500 – Why is Justin Rose over $5,000 cheaper than Jordan Spieth on FantasyDraft? This price tag is far too cheap for a golfer of his talent level, especially considering that Rose has played great golf in his last two events with back-to-back top five finishes. Oh, and he also happened to finish in 6th place here last year. Yes, please! Rose should be a staple of your cash game lineups this week.
Shane Lowry – $13,500 – Here is one of my favorite plays on the dollar of the entire slate. Lowry is an experienced links golfer who has a great European Tour track record when playing in the wind and rain. He logged a top 20 finish last week in Arizona, and he has made the cut here in the last two editions. Lowry checks a lot of boxes this week, and the cheap price tag is quite the cherry on top of the cake. Give him a look as a value play in all formats this week.
Yellow Light — “GPP Only” Plays
Jason Day – $21,900 – It’s much safer to take Dustin Johnson in cash games, but I don’t mind Day in some tournament lineups. He was awful at Torrey Pines two weeks ago, but he was in that lost cause group with Tiger Woods and the aforementioned Johnson. I worry quite often about Day’s back, especially since this tournament will be played in cool, rainy conditions for the first few days. That is primarily why I will limit my exposure to GPPs. Otherwise, he fits all the statistical profiles you would want at Torrey Pines. He can hit the ball a long way, and he is normally a great putter (though he was the exact opposite of that his last time out).
Brandt Snedeker – $18,900 – He could probably be considered in the green light section, but I don’t like Snedeker’s relative price point compared to some of the other top end players. As such, he finds himself in this section. Snedeker has played well in his own right at this event, and he loves putting on Poa Annua greens, which we have in play this week. While he’s not the longest hitter on Tour, Snedeker is capable of holding his own with the driver, and his putting is among the best out there — especially on this surface. While he doesn’t come at a relative discount, it would come as no surprise if he was in contention to win this tournament come Sunday afternoon.
Jimmy Walker – $16,800 – His inconsistency over the last year lands him in the GPP category, as does the fact that I never seem to get him right. His recent form isn’t the greatest, but he did reveal that he was dealing with a nasty illness back in January. He has made the cut in six straight appearances at this event, with five of those going for 11th place or better. That’s a pretty impressive track record, and if you value course history, Walker should be on your radar this week. He’s another guy who has the personality to tackle a pro-am format with the best of them.
Roberto Castro – $15,200 – He is a very steady golfer and has made the cut in 18 of the last 20 tournaments he has played. Don’t be scared off by the missed cut last week, as he literally missed the cut by one INCH. Yes, that’s right, his putt on the final hole on Friday stayed out by one INCH, and he missed the cut on the number. You will be able to get Castro at a low ownership this week because of that missed cut, and this is a guy who finished in the top ten at this very event last year. I’ll gladly take this confluence of circumstances in my GPP lineups this weekend!
Red Light — “Avoid These” Plays
Happy Gilmore – $99,999 – Unfortunately, the greatest golfer of all time will not be partaking in the tournament this week. That’s right, Happy Gilmore is better than Tiger Woods.
Patrick Reed – $16,900 – For all intents and purposes, Reed was terrible last week. He slid his way through the cut line and labored around over the weekend on his way to a 68th place finish. That’s not the kind of finish you want from a player of his price, and he has already pulled out of a February overseas event because of a mysterious illness. The recent signs are not encouraging, and I will be spending my salary cap on other options this week.
Pat Perez – $14,000 – Perez was around 10% owned in a lot of contests a week ago, and he burned his owners by withdrawing in the first round with a back injury. Perez is a talented golfer, but he has a long injury history, and I want no part of a guy who is dealing with a back injury. That is especially true given the damp, cool conditions that are expected here at Pebble Beach. There’s no reason to take on the added risk.
Adam Hadwin – $14,000 – Hadwin is bound to be a chalky play in all formats this week, and I must admit that the price tag is very nice for the way that he has been playing. However, there is some volatility to his game, and we saw it a couple weeks ago when he quickly faded from contention over the weekend at Torrey Pines. Hadwin is not the biggest name on Tour, and he’s not a big hitter, either. In addition, he has never played a competitive PGA Tour event at Pebble Beach. I think he is a trap this week and will be avoiding him in all formats.
Vaughn Taylor – $13,300 – He arrives in this section because he is the defending champion of this event, and the defending champion will likely garner some interest. Like Hadwin, I will downgrade Taylor based on the anticipated weather for the week and the fact that he generally doesn’t hit the ball a long way. Now, this is not to say that short hitters can’t succeed at Pebble Beach, because they clearly can, but the wet course is definitely a factor in my analysis here. Drop Taylor down a few notches because of that, and he’s also a guy who plays a relatively limited schedule. We might see some rust here, on top of the usual pressure of being a defending tournament champion. There’s too much risk to take on in my opinion, especially with plenty of other viable value plays out there.