FantasyDraft PGA: Honda Classic
What’s up, Grinders? I know a lot of you are itching to get back to the daily fantasy grind, so much so that I have seen some people talking about BASEBALL over the last few days. Ah yes, the time draws near. Of course, if you are looking to satisfy your thirst for some DFS action, you can certainly get that with golf this week, as the PGA Tour heads to Florida for The Honda Classic. There will be a lot of newer players giving golf a try here, so perhaps this is the week to give it a look with a softer playing field.
This event is being played at the PGA National Golf Club, and this course almost always represents one of the most difficult challenges of the year. Water hazards are in play on 12 of the 18 holes that will be contested. The “Bear Trap” stretch (named after Jack Nicklaus) on holes 15, 16, and 17 is one of the toughest three-hole stretches on Tour. In eight of the last ten years, the winning score has been in the single-digits under par. You are not going to be seeing a birdie-fest this week. Par is a great score on this golf course. In addition to the difficult nature of the course, we also have several changes with the transition from the West Coast swing to the Florida swing. This week’s course features Bermuda grass on the greens, which is quite different from the Poa Annua we have seen in recent weeks. In other words, don’t be afraid to target guys who didn’t play well in California, as a lot of those players simply don’t like putting on Poa.
With the housekeeping out of the way, let’s take a look at some golfers to consider on FantasyDraft this week. This is a shorter par 70 course with a lot of water (as I mentioned above), so accuracy and scrambling stand out as stats to keep an eye on here.
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Green Light — “All Systems Go” Plays
Adam Scott – $24,800 – There’s no doubt that Scott is your top overall play of the week. No matter where you look, you will likely see Scott listed as the top overall option of the week. There certainly is merit to possibly fading him due to high ownership in tournaments, but he’s a cash game lock. Scott has played here twice, he has played every single round at par or better (which is incredible on this course), and he is the defending champion. He can check every box statistically, and though it’s early, he actually leads the Tour in strokes gained putting so far this season. I have no problem riding the wave, especially on a course that presents a lot of challenges. This is also a relatively weak field at the top (especially compared to last week), which adds some value to a guy like Scott.
Daniel Berger – $16,400 – Daniel Berger is a Florida boy who loves Bermuda greens and hates everything else. Daniel Berger is returning home to Florida, so it’s time to hop aboard. In his last start on Bermuda greens in Arizona, he finished inside the top ten. He has a playoff loss on his resume at this very event from a couple years ago. Don’t sleep on him right now, as this is the time where he could start a torrid stretch of golf leading up to the first big events of the year. He should also be rested after a couple weeks off, which is a valid point to consider when you factor in the west to east travel that the golfers who played last week had to endure. That is especially true after all of them who made the cut logged between 30 and 36 holes of golf on Sunday. While that isn’t the largest consideration, it’s certainly a check mark in Berger’s favor. When you add in his love for Bermuda and this course, it makes a lot of sense to target him in all formats here.
Gary Woodland – $16,100 – Yes, I’m a sucker for Gary Woodland. Yes, I can probably think of a reason to target him almost every week. He’s not the most accurate hitter off the tee, which is very worrisome at a course like this. However, the other factors are all in his favor. He ranks a respectable 23rd in scrambling this season, his low ball flight works well in the Florida wind (which will be a factor this week), and he has made the cut all four times he has played at this event. Woodland is also coming off a fifth place finish at Pebble Beach his last time out, so the form is still trending in the right direction. Despite the sometimes erratic tee shots, there are enough positives to get me to bite once again.
Brendan Steele – $16,100 – If it’s not broken, why fix it? Steele is riding a streak of twelve consecutive cuts made, and he has made the cut all six times he has teed it up at this event in the past. He is in the best form of his career, and he should be priced higher than he is right now. While he had a nondescript 39th place finish last week, that was actually his worst finish of the 2016-2017 wrap-around season. Don’t fret about that finish, and simply hope that it causes more of your opponents to hop off the bandwagon. Steele ranks 3rd on Tour in scrambling this year, so that’s another feather in his already loaded cap.
Wesley Bryan – $13,500 – I wrestled with whether or not to put him in this section or the next one, but he landed here. Bryan is a mega talented golfer that has struggled to put things together at the PGA Tour level, but we are finally starting to see the rewards of his hard work. He has made back-to-back cuts and fired up a fourth place finish last week at Riviera. He also has experience at this course through his time on “The Big Break” television program (his season was filmed here), and he backed that up with a ninth place finish here in an event that qualified him for the Web.com Tour. It’s safe to say that he has more experience at this venue than most younger players. He’s capable of dialing it in with his irons, which could come in handy on a second shot golf course, too. Everything adds up to make Bryan a great value option in this event.
Yellow Light — “GPP Only” Plays
Justin Thomas – $22,800 – After back-to-back wins in January, everyone started playing Justin Thomas. He backed that up with a sputtering missed cut in Arizona and an uninspiring 39th place finish last week. However, he did close with an encouraging 68 in the final round at Riviera, so perhaps he worked out some of the flaws. Thomas played every round of this event under par last season on his way to a third place finish, and he will look to get back on track in this event. His erratic form and high price tag make him tough to trust for cash games, but with everyone on guys like Scott and Garcia, Thomas makes for a high-upside target that will likely go under-owned in tournaments.
Thomas Pieters – $15,500 – This is simply a pick based on his ability to put a white golf ball in a round cup. Pieters is a phenomenal talent, as he opened eyes at the 2016 Ryder Cup and last week at the Genesis Open where he walked away with a second place finish. While his penchant for falling off the rails and putting up double bogeys (see: Fowler, Rickie) is always a concern, there’s no denying the talent here. Pieters is capable of winning a golf tournament, especially one with a relatively weak field like this one. While he might not check the accurate/short hitter boxes like some of the other guys in this article, he’s a cut above some of the other golfers in this range in terms of ability. That can help make up for some of the statistical deficiencies.
Kevin Kisner – $15,000 – The stars are aligning nicely for Kisner this week. Like the aforementioned Daniel Berger, he’s a guy that prefers playing on Bermuda greens. Even though he’s not the biggest fan of Poa Annua, he still managed to hang up a top ten finish at Pebble Beach a couple weeks ago. Each of his last three starts on Tour have gone for a top 25. He has been precise off the tee with a driving accuracy ranking of 23rd this year. He has long been on my radar as a potential breakout player, and this could be the year where he finally starts to put everything together to get into that upper-middle class of golfers.
Luke Donald – $14,600 – Every time people start to take a look at Luke Donald, it seems like he comes crashing down. That interest will likely start to stir this week, as Donald has posted top 25 finishes in his last two tournaments. When you throw in his penchant as an accurate hitter who loves short courses, it would stand to reason that he could have success here. As such, he has a sparkling six-for-six record here that includes four straight top ten finishes. It wasn’t long ago when the entire DFS golf community was ready to write Donald off completely. There is some risk of him imploding and missing the cut, but the upside is undeniable, especially at a very affordable $14,600 price tag on Fantasy Draft. Donald is tough to trust in cash games, but he’s a fine GPP play with top ten upside.
Red Light — “Avoid These” Plays
Zach Johnson – $17,800 – When people see a short course with just two par fives, you instantly see some love for Zach Johnson. After all, he’s one of the best iron/wedge players in the world. I just don’t love his history at this event, which includes nothing better than a tie for 30th place with a pair of missed cuts the last two times he has teed it up. There are tons of mid-range options out there for this event, so I will look for someone that checks a few more boxes and has some better history playing here.
Paul Casey – $16,900 – Casey draws some attention because of his name value, but he just isn’t firing right now. His finishes on the PGA Tour since the calendar flipped to 2017 are a missed cut, 58th, 28th, and 39th. Meh. He has slipped to 83rd on Tour in driving accuracy and has really struggled off the tee the last few weeks. That’s not something you want to see out of a guy heading into a tournament where finding the fairway off the tee is absolutely critical. The rough is very penal on this golf course, and I will be fading Casey until he figures things out with the driver.
Brooks Koepka – $16,800 – Speaking of struggling with the driver, I present Brooks Koepka to you. He somehow ranks an appalling 187th in driving accuracy out of just 213 qualified golfers, and he has flat out been awful of late. Whether it’s his balky ankle or his equipment change or simply a slump, this is not the time to play him. The DFS community as a whole loves this guy for some reason, and he was fairly heavily owned a week ago. While that will undoubtedly dip this week, I still can’t hop aboard the train. There are too many red flags, especially as we head into an event with lots of hazards and trouble at every turn.