FantasyDraft PGA: THE PLAYERS Championship
What’s up, Grinders? We have a big golf tournament this week at TPC Sawgrass, a tournament that is often known as the season’s “fifth major.” As I always enjoy writing about golf, we figured this was a good time to knock out another FantasyDraft-focused picks article. The best part is that the article is completely free for you to read as you set your lineups!
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This week’s course is a relatively short Par 72 course that measures right around 7,200 yards. The 12th hole has been completely re-designed into a drive-able par 4 of 302 yards, and the back nine holes will contain plenty of drama. Of course, this is the event which features the famous “island green” on the 17th hole, where many golf balls perish in the water surrounding said green. This is very much a course where good shots are rewarded and poor shots are punished. It’s a second shot golf course, as the shorter nature of the course takes the driver out of the golfers’ hands on a lot of holes. Ball striking and approach play are key stats to target here.
With the housekeeping out of the way, let’s take a look at some golfers to consider on FantasyDraft this week!
Green Light — “All Systems Go” Plays
Rory McIlroy – $18,400 – You might notice that one Dustin Johnson is not leading off these picks. While Johnson has been on fire with three wins and a 2nd place finish in his last four events, he’s not my pick to win this tournament. McIlroy is healthy again and playing like one of the best players in the world. He has consistently been finishing in the top ten and does not have a weakness in his game outside of the putter. If he can putt it reasonably well in this event, he’s my pick to win. His course history is much better than DJ’s, and McIlroy has finished 12th or better in each of the last four events here.
Sergio Garcia – $17,400 – All the signs with Garcia are positive. He’s the all time money leader at this event, and he’s about as perfect a fit for TPC Sawgrass as you could imagine. He leads the PGA Tour in ball striking. He should be playing with extreme confidence after winning his first major. The only concern is a potential letdown/hangover/whatever you want to call it after that big win, but it’s a very mild concern. I am comfortable playing Garcia in both cash games and tournaments on FantasyDraft this weekend.
Francesco Molinari – $15,000 – The discounted price is very friendly here, and Molinari is one of my favorite plays of the week. He’s another solid ball striker that has found his groove this season. He was in contention a week ago before fading on Sunday, and he has logged top ten finishes at THE PLAYERS each of the last two times he has teed it up. While he will never be a massive, dynamic birdie-maker, he is going to play from the fairway a lot. That has huge value here, especially if the wind happens to kick up. Enjoy being able to take him at a salary that is right around the average you need to spend per player.
Kyle Stanley – $12,500 – If you haven’t played fantasy golf on FantasyDraft that much, make sure you are aware of the new rule that they put in place last week. Only six of the seven golfers that you pick end up counting toward your final score. That makes it easier to stomach some value plays or some risk/reward plays. Stanley is one of the safer values on the board this week. Like many of the others you will find in this article, he is yet another ball striker who has been playing some solid golf. He has only missed one cut all season, and his recent finishes have been solid. He has made two of three cuts in his career at this event, and he’s a better golfer now than he used to be. I am definitely comfortable using Stanley at an affordable $12,500 price tag on FantasyDraft.
Yellow Light — “GPP Only” Plays
Adam Scott – $16,100 – For a player of his caliber, his recent form has been a bit off. While he did finish 9th at The Masters, that currently represents his only top ten finish of the year. He’s not in the ball striking class of a guy like Garcia, but Scott has always had a fantastic tee-to-green game. He will go under-owned in this price range given his mediocre recent form, so I will bite for some shares in tournament formats. He has made ten of the last twelve cuts here while playing each year since 2005. He’s going to pop for a surprise win at some point, and though it will be a tough task in this field, it would surprise nobody if Scott was in contention on Sunday.
Patrick Cantlay – $14,000 – If you are a casual golf fan, you might be asking yourself, “Who is this?” Yeah, Cantlay has come out of nowhere. He has a great story that I would encourage you to search and read up on if you have a few minutes and aren’t familiar with it. He had a golf setback thanks to a back injury and some personal tragedy a few years ago, but he has returned and is ready to shine. He has done nothing to slow the momentum down with finishes of 2nd, 39th, and 3rd in his last three events. We simply don’t have enough data points on him to know how safe he truly is, but that will also keep his ownership down. Give him a look on some GPP rosters.
Gary Woodland – $12,800 – Speaking of tragedy, the Woodland family has gone through their share of trauma lately. Gary’s wife lost one of the twins that she was pregnant with a couple of months ago, and that shifted Gary’s focus away from the game of golf — and understandably so. Assuming his mental focus is there, he’s a nice fit for TPC Sawgrass. While he is a bomber, he’s also a smart player. He ranks 15th in ball striking and 24th in strokes gained on approach this year. Those are fantastic numbers for a guy who is normally known simply as a big hitter. He gets the GPP-only tag because of the personal uncertainty. If he’s ready to go, this price tag is far, far too cheap for his talent.
David Hearn – $11,300 – If you are looking for a total punt play, this is as cheap as I will go. Hearn is not having a great season, but his lack of distance off the tee doesn’t really hurt him at TPC Sawgrass. He also likes it here, as he has played this event five times without missing a cut. Three of those five trips have gone for top 30 finishes. He tends to hit a lot of fairways (though he hasn’t been as consistent this year), and he is about the best play you are going to come up with in this mega value price range. Remember, you can afford to take a few more risks with the new dropped score feature on FantasyDraft.
Red Light — “Avoid These” Plays
Jon Rahm – $17,000 – This is all relative to the rest of the field and the likely ownership that he will have. In cash games, I prefer pivoting away from players who are playing this event for the first time. This course presents a very unique test, and Rahm will have to learn on the fly. He will also lose his biggest benefit (the driver) on a lot of holes. I’d rather play it safe with other options in cash games, and Rahm’s ownership is going to be too high for me to hop on board. Again, I don’t “hate” him, but I just won’t be playing him this week. Since I’ll have no exposure, I’m rooting for a missed cut this week. (Just this once, Jon).
Phil Mickelson – $15,000 – Don’t get sucked in by an affordable price tag. Although Mickelson is a past champion here, he joked that he cannot even believe that he won it. This is simply not the course for his game, as Phil tends to spray the ball all over the place. Those shots get punished at TPC Sawgrass. Mickelson’s last four results here have all been missed cuts. He will likely get some popularity because of his name recognition, but he is a pass for me in all formats.
Zach Johnson – $13,300 – On the opposite side of Mickelson, we have Zach Johnson. His course history here is incredibly good with 11 cuts made in the last 12 editions, including two top tens. However, his current form has really been slipping. His 18th place finish a week ago was his first top 25 finish since Super Bowl Sunday (February 2nd). He’s also a player who tends to not make a lot of birdies. I’ll search for upside with other golfers in this price range.
That’s all for this week. Good luck out there!