FAQ, Glossary, and Tutorial: Fantasy Pick'em Tool
The Fantasy Pick’em Tool is designed to help you make strategic picks and increase your chances of winning on sites like PrizePicks, Underdog Fantasy, and DraftKings Pick6.
Each sport has an underlying picks model that is based on projections and the sports marketplace. The methods may vary slightly from sport to sport, but the end game is the same: determine the most likely side (More/Less, Higher/Lower, etc.) to win and the expected win percentage.
Also, each site has payouts associated with their games. This implies that a pick must win a certain percentage of the time in order to be profitable. In many game types, we will attempt to express your advantage using the “EDGE” metric. See below for a glossary of terms.
We currently offer picks for NFL, MLB, PGA, NHL, NBA, College Football, College Basketball, UFL (spring football), and Cricket. Additional sports will soon be available: you can expect to see MMA, Esports, WNBA, and many others in the near future.
Glossary
TYPE: The statistic or category being offered by a Fantasy Pick’em site. This could include simple stats like yards, touchdowns, and more. It could also include complex categories like “1st round leaderboard position,” “runs allowed in first 5 innings,” and many others.
PROJ: Short for projection. The projection is the number each Fantasy Pick’em site sets as the mark for “Less/More” (or Higher/Lower). This is the number you must cross (or fail to cross) in order for your pick to be graded as a win.
PICK: This is the side of the projection we think is more likely to win, based on the calculations of our picks model.
WINPCT: This stands for win percentage. This is the expected rate that our picks model thinks the selected side will win.
EDGE: This is the conservative percentage above the “break-even” line we expect for this pick. Every pick has an implied break-even point based on the payouts from the Fantasy Pick’em sites. We estimate that break-even point and attempt to show you which selections are more likely than others to be profitable. Note: we use strict payout odds (e.g., 2-Pick). Often times, the Fantasy Pick’em sites will imply a less strict break-even point when the overall win percentage of the lineup card is lower (e.g., 3-Pick, 5-Pick). Lastly, it is important to note that more picks could be profitable than the EDGE% implies based on the sites’ variable payout structures…but the general ranking of which selections the tool thinks is best will typically remain the same.
FAQ
- How do you determine which picks to grade?
The top 3 picks listed at a set time each day for each sport are selected for grading, which is usually 30 minutes prior to the lock of the first contest in a game set.
- How do you determine what the best picks are?
For each sport, we have a projections model and/or simulation that helps us determine an expected pick win percentage. In addition, we use current market data to help assess expected value. We use a combination of our own projections and the implied wisdom of the sports marketplace to determine which picks we like and do not like. Our individual models for each sport and market type are leveraged and applied to determine the expected win rates displayed.
- How often does this tool update?
Currently, at least once every 10 minutes as soon as sports are activated for the day, which typically occurs no later than 10:00 AM ET. Updates presently continue until 11:00 PM ET. Hours and frequency will only expand and improve in the future.
- Should I expect to win easily by just selecting the top picks in this tool daily?
No. Fantasy Pick’em sites rely on multiple picks per lineup card, and it is increasingly more difficult to win as the number of picks per card increases. They do make the payouts more attractive as more picks are added, but generally speaking, your odds of winning are fairly low on any given multi-pick card. You ARE NOT that likely to win the 20x payout promised.
Here is an example: If the implied odds of any pick on a 5-Pick are roughly 55% each leg, that means the overall selection is (55% * 55% * 55% * 55% * 55%) = 5.03%.
This tool is designed to help show you picks that could show a modest edge against those odds, but ultimately, the expectation should be that you will not win 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6-pick entries as often as you will lose them…even with the best possible pick options at your disposal.
This does not mean you cannot succeed in the long run, but it does mean you may have to carry an appropriate bankroll for the game type in order to survive long enough to realize your expected win rate. Your expectation should not include Fantasy Pick’em sites as a “get rich quick” scenario. Winning is a grind.
- Will more sports and sites be added to this tool?
It is expected that the marketplace and appetite for Fantasy Pick’em games will increase. It is fair to expect this tool to expand along side the marketplace. As of now, we do plan to expand sports and offerings as quickly as possible.