2023 Farmer's Insurance Open Odds: Golf Betting Preview & Picks

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2023-01-30 13:32:50

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down golf betting tips for the 2023 Farmer’s Insurance Open. Use the PrizePicks promo code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf props today!

Jon Rahm added another victory at the 2023 American Express making that four wins in his last six tournament. Rahm will tee it up at another course where he has found success at Torrey Pines for the Farmer’s Insurance Open this week. Rahm highlights a strong field as an overwhelming favorite ahead of a few of golf’s brightest stars. The South Course at Torrey Pines will be a test. Will the top of the board reign supreme again? Let’s break down the field and course before building our betting card.

Farmer’s Insurance Open at BetMGM Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – January 23rd – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of the Farmer’s Insurance Open:

• 2022 – Luke List (-15)
• 2021 – Patrick Reed (-15)
• 2020 – Marc Leishman (-15)
• 2019 – Justin Rose (-21)
• 2018 – Jason Day (-20)
• 2017 – Jon Rahm (-13)

What a field, am I right? Jon Rahm is the headliner, but Morikawa, JT, Xander, Tony Finau, and Will Zalatoris? Early golf is paying dividends for viewers even if Jon Rahm has won both events he has played in. Will he make it three-for-three?

Five of the world’s top ten players are in the field this week. In total, 156 players will tee it up — playing one round at each of the North and South courses on Wednesday and Thursday. The top 65 and ties will make the weekend with both rounds to be played at the South course. Jason Day and Justin Rose will play in the field as past champions. Luke List will return to defend his championship from last year when he ousted Will Zalatoris in a one-hole playoff. Taylor Montgomery continues to move up the odds board with his recent form. Montgomery is the tenth of ten players at 25/1 or shorter in the field.

2023 Farmer’s Insurance Open Betting Preview

• Course: Torrey Pines GC (North and South)
• Date: January 25 – 28
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,765 yards (South) 7,258 yards (North)
• Greens: Poa (South) Bentgrass (North)

The South Course will be one of the toughest tests players see this season. Stretched out at 7,765 yards, driving distance and accuracy will matter, as players will face longer approach shots than they have thus far in 2023. The North Course is the players’ opportunity to score. If you are considering some FRL bets, consider players that play the North Course on Wednesday.

The average green size at the South Course is 5,000 square feet. At the North Course, the greens are bentgrass and far larger — measuring at about 6,000 square feet per green.

With kakuya grass all over, around-the-green proficiency will finally play a role as players will be playing from a very long range often at the South Course. Proximity from 200 yards will be important, but when players miss, they will need to get up and down to keep away the red figures.

Speaking of proximity, seven of the eight Par 3s are 200 yards or longer. Break out the long irons, gentlemen. In cooler temperatures on a coastal course, these holes will play very long and will likely be holes where players are ecstatic about making par.

Seven of the Par 4s fall in the 450-500 yard range. The course will demand a lot with the driver and positioning. Longer hitters will be at an advantage here, especially if they keep the ball in the fairway.

Players must make birdies on the Par 5s. This is crucial. On the South course, all four holes are the easiest holes on the course with birdie rates north of 30%.

I will be taking a look at SG: Approach, SG: ARG, SG: Putting, Par 4: 450-500, Proximity > 200, and Driving Distance. Let’s see what our model is pointing us to for this week’s betting card.

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2023 Farmer’s Insurance Open Betting Picks

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Will Zalatoris +1800 (PointsBet)

Willy Z makes his return to Torrey Pines after two impressive showings over the last couple of season. In his last trip, Zalatoris lost in a playoff to Luke List after just missing a birdie putt after List stuck his approach in tight to put the pressure on. At the time, Zalatoris was considered on the verge of a breakthrough victory. Since, Zalatoris has won on tour and established himself as a threat each week.

Zalatoris has a reputation for playing well on the tougher courses because of stellar approach play and plenty of length. While putting seems to be a question mark, he tends to have no trouble getting up and down or two-putting on more challenging courses.

Zalatoris leads the field in SG: Approach, ball striking, and comes in second in SG: T2G over his last 50 rounds. Over his last 36 rounds, he is 5th in Par 4: 450-500. With his play being solid since injury, I am pretty confident in his form at this course and his skillset. We are going to bet 1.25 units on PointsBet.

Taylor Montgomery +3000 (PointsBet)

I will not relent. Taylor Montgomery is on my card until he breaks through. The putting guru comes into the Farmer’s in top form. Last season, Montgomery finished 11th at this event.

While the field is stronger, Montgomery’s putter leads the field in strokes gained. He is excellent off the tee, ranking 9th in strokes gained. While the price is definitely short because of his recent form, I am in until we get the win. And for those with access to only DFS sites, the line for Montgomery’s Round 1 score is 71 strokes at PrizePicks.

We add Montgomery to our card for 3/4 units on PointsBet, again, coming in with the best price.

Taylor Pendrith +8000 (BetMGM)

We jump to another Taylor with plenty to offer out of the tee box. Taylor Pendrith is 80/1 on BetMGM, and we are very much interested.

Pendrith finished 16th at this event last year. He ranks 2nd in SG: OTT and 7th in driving distance. With the length of the South Course, Pendrith’s length will surely help. He ranks in the top ten in Par 4: 450-500, very likely due to his length off the tee. He might be a player with less shots from 200 yards and above giving him a better chance to approach the green. We’d like to see more out of the putter but at 80/1 we are happy with the rest of his skillset.

We include Pendrith for 1/4 unit.

Luke List +9000 (DraftKings)

Finally, while Luke List isn’t coming in with immaculate form, he returns to a familiar course with plenty of history.

List has made 5 of his last 5 cuts at this event with his last two finishes being a victory and a 10th place. List’s game fits the course with plenty of strokes gained off the tee and plenty of length. At this price, he feels like a bit of a bargain. List’s putter is a disaster but we must remember how much more important SG: ARG will be this week.

List doesn’t have to make a ton of long putts if he is chipping in close and taking care of business at the Par 5’s. I think List should be priced a bit shorter so I am buying for course history alone. Let’s add him for another 1/4 unit.

2023 Farmer’s Insurance Open Betting Card

Farmer’s Insurance Open Total Units in Play – 2.5 units

2023 Net Units: -5.6

Good luck with all of your golf betting picks and DFS lineups this week.

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.

Image Credit: Imagn