Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Odds, Prediction, and Betting Tips
Indiana vs. New York Odds
| Indiana Odds | +14.5 |
| New York Odds | -14.5 |
| Over/Under | 168.5 |
| Date | Sat, May 18 |
| Time | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Saturday’s WNBA slate features 4 games, beginning with an exciting matchup between the Indiana Fever and New York Liberty at 1:00 p.m. ET on ABC.
Ahead of the action this afternoon, New York is listed as a 14.5-point favorite over Indiana. The total for this contest is set at over/under 168.5 points.
Below, we break down the matchup for both teams and offer a free pick for the betting community!
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Indiana has lost each of their first two games to begin 2024, losing by 21 points to Connecticut on Tuesday and by 36 points to New York on Thursday. New York, coming off of last season’s trip to the WNBA Finals, is a perfect 2-0 after wins against Washington and Indiana.
Indiana Fever
Caitlin Clark off to a slow start
Caitlin Clark is off to a slow start in her rookie season for the Fever. In 2 games, she has made only 7 of 23 (30.4%) shots from the field, including only 5 of 18 (27.8%) from beyond the arc. She’s turned the ball over 13 times and has been in foul trouble against both Connecticut and New York.
After dominating at Iowa and averaging 31.6 points per game, Clark is going through an adjustment period in the WNBA, playing against much tougher competition on a nightly basis. She has extremely high-end potential, but her efficiency and overall production are lacking at the moment.
Ball security problem?
Last season, only Seattle and Phoenix had a higher turnover rate than Indiana. Through 2 games in 2024, Indiana has a higher turnover rate than every other team in the WNBA. As a result, Indiana ranks 11th out of 12 teams in offensive rating despite the fact that they added shot-making ability to their roster this past offseason.
Entering play on Saturday, only Seattle and Indiana have committed more turnovers than they have team assists. Even with good shot selection, the Fever are going to struggle to score efficiently if they cannot take better care of the basketball.
New York Liberty
Liberty rolling to begin 2024
Every early-season comment about a team must come with a caveat that everything is a small sample size, but New York has looked very impressive to begin 2024 – ranking 1st in offensive rating and 2nd in defensive rating through 2 games.
New York is a tough matchup for any opponent, combining good shot selection with good rebounding and a strong defensive effort on a nightly basis. This is a team that has all the tools to make it back to the WNBA Finals again this year.
New York dominant on their home floor
In 2023, New York had the 2nd-best home record of any team in the WNBA, finishing 15-5 with a +10.1 Net Rating. Elite ball movement led to them ranking 2nd in both eFG% and TS%, allowing them to score 110.6 points per 100 possessions.
This afternoon, they get a favorable matchup against a weak Indiana defense that just allowed them to score 102 points on the road two days ago. Last season, only Seattle and Phoenix allowed more points per 100 possessions than Indiana on the road.
This is another great spot for the Liberty as they look to improve to 3-0.
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Prediction
UNDER 168.5 (-110), BetMGM
We have played the under in each of Indiana’s first 2 games to begin this season and we see no reason to stop now. When a team commits as many turnovers as the Fever, it’s incredibly difficult to sustain any type of efficient offense – especially against a tough Liberty defense.
New York scored 102 points against Indiana earlier this week, but that also included 35 points in the 4th quarter. In that game, the Liberty also shot 22 for 23 from the foul line.
In theory, we should see some negative regression in free throw percentage from New York on Saturday. The fact that these teams are seeing each other for the second time in three days should also allow Indiana to put together a better defensive effort than what we saw on Thursday.
The under makes sense once again.
Image Credit: Getty Images