Film Room Preview: Week 16
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers started off the season giving up tons of fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, which earned them a reputation as a team to play quarterbacks against in daily fantasy football. But after Week 6, which saw them give up five touchdowns to Joe Flacco, the Bucs only allowed more than one touchdown to an opposing quarterback three times in nine games. So what changed?
The Bucs began rushing the passer better, finding edge rushers who could beat offensive tackles and take pressure off of superstar defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, who dominated from his interior line position all season. McCoy played for most of the year with a broken hand, and spent Week 15 playing on a “bruised knee” that would hyperextend and sprain, leaving him out for the team’s final two contests.
Why Gerald McCoy’s Absence Makes the Packers Passing Game a Must-Play
So just how good is McCoy, and how will it impact the Bucs defense this week against Green Bay? Let’s take a look at some of the pockets Derek Anderson had to throw from on Sunday to see just how big of a deal McCoy’s absence will be.
Anderson is hitting the back of his drop in this image, and I’ve circled the time on the clock.
Two seconds have elapsed, and Anderson had that much time to survey the field, step up, and fire a pass. There’s no one in his face, and no one pursuing him from the edge.
This was the second play after McCoy left the game. There is no coincidence here. The Bucs cannot rush the passer without McCoy in the lineup.
As a fan of the Bucs as a resident of central Florida, I watch this team more often than any other. I see what McCoy brings to the pass rush on a weekly basis, and know that his absence impacts the Bucs the same way losing JJ Watt would hamper the Texans, or losing Richard Sherman would change the dynamic of the Seattle defense.
That was proven over the final three quarters against the Panthers, as Derek Anderson threw from pockets like these.
You’ll notice in the last one that Da’Quan Bowers, 91, actually got up the field a bit but the inability of any other lineman to break away from a blocker meant all Anderson had to do was sidestep just a bit and find plenty of room to throw.
According to Pro Football Focus, Gerald McCoy’s pass rush grade is more than double the next closest defensive tackle, and that’s with McCoy missing one game already due to injury, and sitting out most of this past game against Carolina. He’s a dominant player who does things like this, that will be missed against Green Bay.
On this play, McCoy is supposed to be running a stunt with the other defensive tackle, getting up the field and attracting attention so his teammate can loop around and get to the quarterback.
But McCoy had a better idea.
McCoy’s first step is quicker than anyone else’s on the field, as he’s halfway to the center before he’s even out of his snapping stance and focused on blocking.
McCoy’s second and third step put him right in the center’s face, and the poor Cleveland lineman’s feet are in no position to block an All-Pro pass rusher.
The end result is a sack for McCoy and a highlight worthy of Vines, GIFS and other viral sharing across the Internet.
But it’s a bit unfair to judge how McCoy does against Brian Hoyer, because the Browns are a mess, and that doesn’t help us prepare for a Bucs game against the Packers.
So let’s look at how he impacted Drew Brees.
McCoy single-handedly pressured Brees all day in the two team’s matchup earlier this season, including this high-effort play that led to a turnover.
Notice in these images how McCoy is pushing into the pocket, rather than being walled off or led upfield and out of the way. Compare this to the images of Anderson’s pockets above, and consider the difference. It’s staggering.
But McCoy doesn’t stop at simply disrupting the pocket. He dives and stretches to get a hand on Brees as he attempts to throw on the run, and in doing so disrupts the QB’s momentum and leverage on what is a pretty ill-advised pass attempt.
The result is a wobbly pass that is intercepted by the Bucs, and McCoy did most of the heavy lifting to induce such a poor throw from a future Hall of Famer.
The Packers are already the best pass blocking team in the NFL, giving Aaron Rodgers all the time he needs to break defenses apart and find holes in coverage. That will be especially true this week, as the Bucs will be unable to pressure the best quarterback in the NFL at all, leading to a huge day for the Pack.
Fire up Rodgers in all formats, because his job became a lot easier when the Bucs placed Gerald McCoy on IR. He was truly the only player capable of slowing down the Green Bay passing game.
Can We Trust The Dallas Running Game Without DeMarco Murray?
(Thanks to @thezachp1 on Twitter for suggesting this topic!)
DeMarco Murray has a broken hand, and his status for this week’s game against the Colts is still up in the air. He appears to be on track to play, but he may sit out or be limited in snaps. That opens the door for Joseph Randle and Lance Dunbar, but can we trust those players to perform anywhere near as well as Murray?
Yes. And It’s because of the dominance of the Dallas offensive line.
According to Football Outsiders, the Cowboys lead the league in Adjusted Line yards, and are top-five in success rate in power situations. Pro Football Focus grades them as the third-best run-blocking team in the league. And Joseph Randle specifically has proven he can run behind this line with a lot of success.
So far this season, DeMarco Murray has rushed for 0 or negative yards on 64 of his 351 carries. Randle has been held to 0 or fewer yards only three times on his 34 attempts, while also breaking off some nice runs. The sample size is small, and he’d likely face tougher competition were he to play more often, but it’s pretty clear that Randle is capable of finding space to run behind this incredible line.
On this play, Randle is going to counter right and then run to the left, following his pulling linemen. You’ll notice that in this early snapshot of the down, the Dallas linemen are already surging forward and getting key blocks in, while the pulling linemen are set to pick up the only Eagles left unblocked on the left side of the play.
Randle follows his blocking outside rather than cutting up the field into the hole in front of him, allowing his pulling guard to pick up the linebacker at the second level. The linemen on the right side of the formation have walled off every defender in that area, leaving the pulling linemen in one-on-one situations. This is just how the Cowboys drew the play up.
Number 70 gets to the linebacker, and Randle just has to follow his lead and run into open space.
So we’ve seen a counter run succeed without Murray, how about a zone run?
Here the Cowboys will attack the loaded side of the Chicago defense with a zone blocking scheme, and it will work to perfection.
You can already see how the linemen are targeting the players in front of them and getting off the line quickly to create space for Randle to run. That becomes very clear in the next image…
The back is just getting the ball as multiple Chicago defenders are getting pushed upfield, including a linebacker who’s about to get shut out of the play by a lineman moving to the second level.
Randle reads his blocks well and sees that his linemen have inside leverage to his left, meaning he should cut upfield inside of his guard. He does the rest, making a couple of men miss in the open field and ending up in the end zone on a great run. But even if he weren’t capable of breaking any tackles, this would have still been a solid gain.
This play will feature a missed block from a Dallas lineman, but the rest of the line does such a good job that his mistake is negated by the other players’ dominance.
You can see the missed cut block on the left side, but thanks to a great surge from the center and the right side of the line, Randle just has to outrun the defensive tackle who wasn’t cut to get a big gain.
And while Randle isn’t a great athlete, he’s certainly good enough athletically to get away from a pursuing tackle.
You’ll notice in the second image that receivers are blocking downfield for Randle, as well. This is crucial when good running plays hit the second level, as it can create more room to turn a 10-yard gain into a 40-yard gain.
The Cowboys wideouts do their job, as well, and Randle goes 20 yards without being touched thanks to great blocking.
But none of these run defenses we’ve featured have been particularly good. Let’s take one final look at how good the Dallas line can be by watching them go up against the league’s best defense.
This play is a bit of a fluke, I’ll admit, as the Cowboys get away with a false start and partially benefit from Bobby Wagner’s insistence upon pointing out the false start.
But even if we don’t consider Wagner’s late start to the play, we still see a line group that dominates the point of attack for Randle.
Both of the blockers in front of Randle have inside leverage and the linemen on the backside of the play have sealed off the defenders there, leaving a great cutback lane for the running back.
A quick cut upfield nets the Cowboys a big gain on the ground, but again, it’s a bit fluky due to the false start. So let’s consider another example…
This play is going to unfold like it was on the chalk board in the meeting room. The Cowboys are going to open up a hole between the center and the guard to the offense’s left, and Randle is going to get a nice chunk of yards as a result.
Dallas’ linemen never seem to lose at the point of attack, and are great at moving up the field to block second-level defenders as well. They prove that again on this run.
Even a slow, unskilled back could get five or six yards on this play, which is great for fantasy purposes, as it keeps the chains moving and allows the offense to keep the running game in play.
DeMarco Murray may start at running back for Dallas, and that would take away a chance to use some truly cheap options at running back in a matchup against a bottom-10 run defense from a fantasy points allowed perspective. But no matter who starts in the backfield for Dallas, trust that the line will pave the way for a solid rushing day, and that means big value if Murray is ruled inactive ahead of the game.
Why Fred Jackson is a Cash Game Option against Oakland
Fred Jackson is old. Fred Jackson seems boring. Fred Jackson plays for the Bills, who aren’t very good on offense. But none of these facts should stop you from using the veteran runner in cash game lineups this week in a great matchup with Oakland.
Jackson is a do-it-all tailback who earns his fantasy living by getting all of the best opportunities for the Bills. He’s a runner, but also spends plenty of time catching passes, and is featured in the red zone (when the Bills get to the red zone) as well.
Against Cleveland, he carried the ball 21 times, and had four targets. Against Denver, the Bills were chasing the game, and he only received eight rushing attempts, but made up for it with 14 targets. In a competitive game against Green Bay, he saw 20 carries and six targets as the Bills hung on for a win.
His recent workload suggests that game script doesn’t take him out of the running for fantasy points, and that’s great news with a road game against a heavy underdog on the schedule this week. So what can we expect from Jackson?
Here’s the Bills’ attempt at taking a shot down the field, as Kyle Orton will fake a handoff and have only two receiving options down the field.
It doesn’t go so well, as Denver isn’t fooled by the fake, and one of the receivers slips when trying to make a break. Orton is left with no other options but Jackson, who has worked his way into open space just to the right of his quarterback.
He takes the short pass and picks up a short gain. This is a point on FanDuel, and 1.5 points on DraftKings. Don’t take that for granted, since it happens all the time for Buffalo.
But not all of his points come as a result of dumpoff passes from a mediocre quarterback. Jackson is a capable runner with great vision, and a good sense of balance to shrug off tacklers.
You can see the design of this play intending for Jackson to cut back from his left to right, as a Buffalo player has moved across the formation to block the backside defender and allow Jackson room to work should he move from left to right behind the line of scrimmage.
But Jackson doesn’t like how the play unfolds, and chooses another path…
He puts a nice stiff arm on the first lineman to challenge him…
…and then high steps away into open space.
He quickly cuts up field and makes something out of nothing, picking up a nice chunk of yards on a play that he improvised from the start.
He’ll be doing this against Oakland, who we’ve previously featured in these breakdowns as being the defense that allowed this play to happen:
A look at the All-22 film still doesn’t explain what the heck Sio Moore was trying to do on this particular play…
The Rams do a great job of disguising the play at first, with fullback Cory Harkey delaying his movement from left to right to further sell the possibility of a run to the left.
And again, here’s Moore, running away from the play (tracking Shaun Hill as a runner? Maybe? That’s the only possible explanation.) Harkey has no one to block on his initial trip through the first and second level, so he continues down the field, and delivers one of the latest “lead blocks” in NFL history.
That’s Harkey to Tre Mason’s right, finally finding someone to block on the play. This is the kind of breakdown Oakland is prone to, and that is good news for the Bills, who will likely be running a good amount against their underdog opponents.
But no matter the game flow, Jackson will be involved in the gameplan. He’s been targeted six or more times in six games this season, and he’s carried the ball 10 or more times six times this season as well. His recent usage has been trending up, and he has a game against a team that struggles to defend running backs.
This is a perfect spot to roll out Jackson in cash games, but he may not have a ton of upside for tournaments. The Bills only have seven runs of 20 or more yards this season, and Jackson is responsible for only two of those plays. Big plays aren’t really the strong suit of the Kyle Orton-led Bills, but plenty of touches for Jackson will still lead to fantasy points this week, creating a safe floor at a decent price in DFS.