Film Room Preview: Week 17
The final week of the NFL season usually brings meaningless contests that are difficult to predict, as teams with nothing left to play for face the harsh reality that even their best effort won’t result in anything more than a higher number under “wins” in the record books, buried a few pages behind the tales of Super Bowl glory for the eventual champions. But that doesn’t mean every player is going to roll over and surrender in Week 17.
Any player not on the Peyton Manning level of job security will be playing for a job next season, and for recognition in the film room as the teams begin to make their plans for the offseason and determine which players are worth committing to, and which ones should be let go. And any player on the Manning-level of job security will still want to play for pride and out of the competitive nature that inspires them to play this violent, crazy game every week for the fall and winter months of every year.
But there’s no denying that the motivation, playing time, and performances of players in more meaningful games are more reliable during Week 17, and no game has quite as much meaning in the NFC as the showdown between the Packers and the Lions. Home games in the playoffs and a possible bye with homefield advantage are all on the line in this contest, giving no reason to doubt how inspired the players will be on the Detroit and Green Bay sidelines.
So we’ll take a look at both sides of the equation for this game, and consider which players you should build your lineups around in Week 17.
When the Lions Have the Ball
Here’s a hot take: Calvin Johnson is really good at football. And despite his team’s lack of recent success against the Packers in Green Bay (Johnson has never played in a Lions win at the Packers), he’s rarely been the one to blame for the failure of his squad. In his last three games at Lambeau Field, Johnson has three touchdowns and over 400 yards. But those games were all at least two years ago, meaning we’ll need to consider some more recent data…
This is from this season’s previous matchup between these NFC North rivals. Calvin is going to be covered man-to-man at the line by Sam Shields.
Shields doesn’t get physical with Megatron at all. This is his (or his playcaller’s) first mistake.
His second mistake was to mistime his jump, but really, when competing for a jump ball against Calvin Johnson, a defender has to root for a bad throw, because there are no athletes the size and caliber of Megatron on the defensive side in the NFL.
How do you defend this? And why is it not the only play in the Detroit playbook?
Here’s an example as to why “throw it up to Calvin” isn’t the only play the Lions run, and why it shouldn’t be.
Again, the Lions are going to get Johnson lined up with no one who will knock him off his route at the line of scrimmage. And while there are no defensive backs who can get physical with Johnson at the line and then follow him up the field (except for maybe Darrelle Revis), a combination of a physical presence at the line and a defender downfield in help can throw off the rhythm of the Lions passing attack and maybe force Matthew Stafford into a bad throw.
But in certain instances, you don’t need to force Stafford into a bad throw. He’ll just make one on his own.
Johnson is going to run a double move here, getting outside of the numbers before heading upfield, but this portion of the route doesn’t mean quite as much with the Packers playing off of him, inviting him to catch a short pass in a 10-yards-to-go scenario.
That gives the defender leverage up the field from Johnson, and allows the safety to come across and take care of any inside moves from the talented receiver. Since the Lions are attacking so far downfield, they’ve brought extra defenders into the equation, and Stafford’s throw seems to ignore them altogether.
Johnson could have competed for a back shoulder throw, but this ball traveled too far to expect any sort of back-shoulder level precision. Instead, Stafford just aired it out, but put it too far for his receiver to catch up.
Here’s what Stafford saw right before he threw. He had a couple of short options, but considering the down and distance, it’s not the end of the world to try to stretch the field. But to try to throw the ball deep to a receiver who is covered with downfield leverage and with a safety within range is just silly.
The problem is that it often works, as a combination of Stafford’s arm strength and Johnson’s ridiculous athleticism leads to touchdowns that no other tandem in the league could create.
On this play, Johnson will start off trending outside toward the numbers before cutting upfield to run up the seam. Again, the defense won’t pressure him at the line, and in fact, the defender in front of him is in a short zone, and will simply hand him off into the empty space behind.
As Johnson gets past the defender at the line, the safety reacts, and moves toward the seam where Johnson is headed.
At this point, all three Chicago defenders in the area know where the ball is going, and start to chase down the Georgia Tech product as he strides toward the end zone.
But Stafford fires a laser well above the heads of the defenders and expects that his franchise wideout will go get it. And he does. And Johnson is able to land and stumble into the end zone for a score.
I have a hard time trusting even a motivated Stafford in DFS, as he’s been far too streaky this season, and he’s playing against a pretty good defense who have been very solid at home this season. Part of the reason for the defensive success of the Packers has been the play of Clay Matthews, who you’ve likely heard discussed during broadcasts due to his “change” to the middle linebacker position in the defense.
And while he certainly is lining up as a middle linebacker from time to time, he’s doing so just to give defenses another look, and to confuse them as to where he’ll attack from. He’s still doing the typical Clay Matthews things he did as an edge rusher, getting up the field and attacking whoever has the ball. He’s just doing it from new places, making it more difficult to block.
Here’s Matthews lined up in the middle of the defense on third and long. He was always going to blitz. You don’t put a pass rush specialist on the field on third-and-long and drop him into a short zone coverage.
But the way he blitzes is less predictable, and the Bills are unable to dedicate a tight end or back to Matthews as they don’t know his intended path to Kyle Orton.
Matthews gets to his intended target fairly easily as Orton scans the field in attempt of picking up the big gain needed to move the chains.
This move off the ball (away from the line of scrimmage) helps Matthews against the run, as well, as blockers will struggle to match up with him when he’s not starting off at his normal position on the line of scrimmage outside of the tackle.
The Bucs aren’t very good at blocking for the run, as it is, but when a top-tier defensive player like Matthews is on the other side of the ball, things can get ugly.
On this play, Matthews is again off the ball, but will attack the play and get a tackle for loss despite his four-yard cushion to the line of scrimmage.
Matthews’ immediate instinct is to flow toward the offense’s left, outside of the tackle. He’s not going to be dropping back into coverage on this play, he’ll either track down a running back or turn on the jets and pursue Josh McCown.
It’s a handoff, so Matthews’ patience is rewarded, as he’s able to crash down on the back and make sure the play goes nowhere.
A disruptor on defense like Matthews is enough of a reason to shy away from Matthew Stafford’s inconsistency in cash games, but his cannon arm and Calvin Johnson’s ability and historic dominance of the Packers are good enough reasons to roll out the duo in tournaments.
The running game for Detroit is impossible to trust or predict in cash games, and this game could get out of hand and force the Lions into plenty of throws. Joique Bell is a PPR-option (assuming he’s not suspended for the first quarter again), but otherwise, I’ll be avoiding the Lions backfield altogether.
When the Packers Have the Ball
But the real attraction in this game is the Green Bay offense, which has been scorching hot at home this season, led by Aaron Rodgers and his MVP-caliber statistics. His Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt lead the league by a healthy margin, and his QB Rating is second to only Tony Romo’s.
Also, he can make throws like this…
How do you defend that? Andrew Quarless simply had to reach up and put his hands out, and this perfect spiral throw simply lodged itself into his grasp despite blanket coverage by the Lions. Matchups don’t matter to Rodgers. Defenders don’t matter to Rodgers. He has one of the best arms and one of the best brains of any quarterback in the league, and he’s capable of making the play against even the most talented defenses.
Here’s an example from the previous meeting between these two teams.
Rodgers is flushed out of the pocket because al of his receivers are well-covered. The throw into the flat isn’t an option, since his throwing lane is cut off by the pass rusher. You’ll notice that Jordy Nelson has an arrow pointing toward the sideline. He’s going to follow his quarterback and be on the receiving end of a great throw.
Here’s a closer look at what Rodgers saw in the pocket…
He waits until the right moment to duck out to his left, letting the pass rusher get into a position to be walled off by his blocker…
… and keeps his eyes downfield to find the big play.
Rodgers then drops in a perfect pass for a big gain.
But you’ll notice that Rodgers was forced out of the pocket. That’s because, like Green Bay, Detroit has impact players on defense who can get after the quarterback and disrupt plays. Rodgers is usually very good under pressure, but the Lions can provide pass rush that makes it impossible for even the best pocket passers to flourish.
Rodgers senses that he’ll be under fire on this play, and without a receiver to throw to immediately, he’ll step up, keep his eyes downfield, and look for another option.
The problem on this play is that the interior linemen for Detroit have surged upfield, pushing the center back into Rodgers’ path, forcing him to take his eyes down to consider a path of escape.
That doesn’t end well for Rodgers.
On this play, Rodgers can already tell he doesn’t have room to step up in the pocket, but knows he has to get out of the way from the two edge rushers closing in on him.
He stumbles away from the initial attempt to get away and run for the first down, but is caught and tackled before he can progress any further. Were it not for the holding called on the defensive back circled at the bottom of the image, this would have been a big stop for Detroit.
Rodgers usually isn’t pressured, as he’s more than capable of getting rid of the ball quickly, and the offense supports that with plays designed to keep Rodgers clean with quickly developed route combinations. But like any other quarterback, he does struggle when pressured, which means his floor is a bit lower when considering the pass rushers Detroit brings to the table.
But his ceiling is as high as ever, because he’s an elite player, and matchups simply don’t matter for him. And I believe that he’s as safe of a cash game option as you’ll find due to his dominance at home, even with a tough opponent across the ball from him.
As for the Green Bay running game? The same players who create havoc for the passing game also disrupt the run game, with Ndamukong Suh leading the way.
Teams have a choice when they run the ball against the Lions: double team Suh, or run away from him. There is no third option. Here’s an example.
Looks like a good start for the Bears, right? Two blockers have picked up Suh, and are walling him off at the point of attack.
Wait… what happened? Rather than a true double team, the Bears tried to chip Suh with a second blocker before sending a lineman to the second level to block a linebacker. That was a bad choice, as Suh shrugged off the other Chicago player, and was all alone in the running lane.
So what about when the Bears actually double teamed Suh?
There are seven other Detroit defenders in the image, and four Chicago blockers not currently occupied with the defensive tackle. That’s not a good sign for the Bears.
As a result, I wouldn’t count on a big rushing day for Eddie Lacy, but his role as the lead back in one of the league’s best offenses gives him value in tournaments in which you want a piece of the Green Bay offense, but want to be contrarian and fade the passing game.
I won’t be doing a lot of that, as I believe the Packers will lean on Rodgers and his top receivers to move the ball in this critical game. It’s not the best matchup in the world, but I think the floor is high enough to trust Rodgers, Nelson and company in cash games, and I think they have a chance to get into a shootout with Calvin Johnson to make for a nice stacked lineup in a GPP with players from both sides.