Find Your Edge: Week 13 - How to Breakdown a Showdown Slate

Director of Data and Analytics, Kevin Cole, returns with a look at how past DFS slates can yield valuable insights to roster construction, decision making, and winning strategies for the coming slate of games. This is a big deal. We’ve collected a massive amount of data on past DFS slates, and Kevin is going to help you “find the edge” buried deep within them.

Week 13

This week we’re going to jump back into Showdown analysis, but focus instead on how to bring together all the information we have in our Showdown Hub to find potential +EV plays.

In this article I’m going to walk through the Week 13 TNF Showdown numbers that include three main elements we can bring together:

  • Optimal lineup allocations (CPT and total roster) for both team based on the results of similar historical matchups.
  • Player ownership projections for FLEX and CPT produced by a model trained on 2018 Showdown contest results.
  • Year-to-date Showdown contest positional allocations for winning (top 0.1%) entries and the field.

The numbers in our Showdown Hub focus on Captain (CPT) and total roster allocations (CPT plus FLEX). In this article, we’ll focus on CPT selection, but the same process can be applied to FLEX allocation.

The overarching key is to compare optimal allocations from historical similar matchups and see what options give you leverage over the field according to ownership projections.

Looking into historical results

Below is an example of the CPT optimal allocation charts available in the Showdown Hub. This specifically looks at 100 historical matchups are most similar to the Week 13 TNF game between the Saints and Cowboys.

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About the Author

  • Kevin Cole (colekev)

  • Kevin Cole previously worked on Wall Street as an equity and credit analyst before transitioning to data-related sports analysis. For a number of years, Kevin has specialized in creating predictive sports models that includes published work at Pro Football Focus, Rotoworld, numberFire, and RotoViz. He is now the Director of Data and Analytics at RotoGrinders.

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