(Finding An) NBA Edge - Week 1
Hey, look! – it’s me. It’s NBA. I’m here…
You may (or may not) recall that I wrote an NBA article a few months ago. It was supposed to be a weekly Friday article, designed to help those of you who are transitioning from NFL to NBA (or those of you who are simply looking to become more profitable in your NBA play). The article was part of this grand idea I had, that my RotoAcademy course on Transitioning from NFL to NBA would provide a strong foundation of knowledge for you as you began to master this new DFS focus, and that the Friday article would then give you additional thoughts and insights to help you build upon that foundation.
Then, I realized that it was still the middle of NFL, and my bank account would thank me if I kept my focus confined to one area during the second half of the NFL season. That “first article” was “the only article” for a while, as I didn’t even play NBA after Thanksgiving, all the way through the end of the NFL regular season.
But now, I’m back. I’m here. Yes – for NBA.
Of course, if you have read enough of my content, you know that my exact approach is likely to vary from article to article. You also probably know that I am a proven MLB and NFL player…and that last year, during my first year of NBA, I threw away most of my 2014 MLB and NFL profit as I made the mistake of playing NBA at the same buy-in levels at which I had been playing MLB and NFL.
At this point – nearly a year after the conclusion of my 2015 NBA fiasco – I’m pretty much a break-even NBA player. I guess that’s not fully accurate, as I am enjoying some meager profit on the season at the moment. But I’m not much above break-even – certainly not far enough above break-even to call myself anything other than that.
What I am doing, however, is studying the sport obsessively. Why? Well…as I talk about in my Transitioning from NFL to NBA course, those who “get” NBA really, really get it. The ROI in NBA DFS is more reliably consistent than in any other sport.
The flip side of that, however, is this: If NBA is more reliably consistent for those who “get it” than any other sport, this also means that those who “don’t get it” are losing money more reliably than they are in any other sport.
Let me say that again:
If you are not one of those who “gets it,” NBA is going to be more consistently and predictably negative for your bankroll than any other sport. The very nature of NBA scoring and roster construction dictates that it is far more difficult in NBA to “get lucky” and have a big night without truly understanding the sport. As such, it is far more difficult to compete unless you work to become one of those who “gets it” yourself.
And so, that is where this Friday article comes from: each week, I will detail things I have learned throughout the week, or elements that my experience has taught me. Each week, I will dig into thoughts and information you can apply yourself as you strive to improve as an NBA DFSer.
Here’s the cool thing about all this: You may not have the time to put in 30 or 40 hours each week studying the NBA and studying NBA game theory and studying to discover what it takes to really improve and compete at a high, consistent level in NBA. But I do have the time for that – and I will be using my time for that. And each week, in this article, I’ll pass along more of what I am learning. As I continue to become a more profitable NBA player (moving, as I have since the start of my journey, from “NBA whale” to “NBA minnow” to “break-even” to “just barely above break-even,” and hopefully moving over the next few months to “consistently and reliably profitable NBA player”), you will continue to become more profitable as well.
That’s the point of this article.
Now, if you remember the first offering of that article, you probably recall that I broke down some of my lineups from the previous week – along with my wins/losses from those lineups, and my overall profit on the season. I may pick up with that next week (or the week after), as breaking down my thinking on each lineup (and exploring any solid calls or missteps I made) is one of the best ways to organically share the knowledge I am gaining myself. But this week, I won’t be doing that.
I’ll tell you why: I have bubbled the last four NBA slates in cash games. If you aren’t familiar with the term “bubbling”: it means, essentially, to just barely miss the cut. The last four slates I have played, the little circle on the DraftKings app that represents my entries has overlapped with the cashing line…but each night, I finished just outside of the money.
Each night, I also made some key mistakes. And sure, I took some licks on some unlucky breaks…but you don’t learn anything from figuring out places where you got unlucky. You learn from identifying the places where you could have done better. But four consecutive slates going that way? Yeah – I don’t want to relive that. Not right now. I’m looking forward. That’s why I’m not getting into any roster breakdowns this week.
Speaking of “looking forward,” though: it’s probably time I went ahead and gave you something specific that you can use, huh?
Here are two things I want to encourage you to study every single night…
It’s one thing to play NBA DFS every night.
It’s another thing to study NBA DFS every night.
Again: I know that you do not have unlimited time to dedicate to NBA DFS, but there are a couple things I try to do every night that help me quite a bit. These are things that will help you as well; these are things that also do not take up a massive amount of time.
1) Study ownership percentages each night.
2) Study the lineups of top players each night.
On point 1) Do not go into your “study of ownership percentages” with a particular agenda. What I mean by that is this: Don’t go into a night saying, “I want to see which players were under-owned tonight,” or “I want to see who ended up going way over where I would have expected them to be owned.” Instead, simply start picking through lineups and looking at the ownership percentages of as many NBA players as you can find. As you start to do this each night, there are a lot of things you will begin to learn. You will learn which matchups people tend to stay away from; you will find which players people tend to overlook far more often than not, and which players people tend to gravitate toward far more than they should. You will start to spot trends in the ownership percentage of various players, which will help you to understand more fully how your opponents, as a whole, are processing and valuing (correctly or incorrectly) the recent performance of players. You will start to see which types of late-breaking news have a heavy impact on ownership and which types of late-breaking news go overlooked. You will notice the players people seem to fade because they’re “afraid of rostering this guy,” and you will notice the players people seem to roster out of “fear of missing out on a big game.” You will start to get inside the thoughts of your opponents – and this can go a long way toward helping you understand how you can improve your own thinking as well.
On point 2) One of the most important things to note here is that “studying the lineups of the top NBA DFS players” does not mean “studying the lineups of whichever players won tournaments that night.” The top NBA DFSers are not going to win the tournaments every night…but there are certain individuals who win far more often than others. These are the individuals whose cash game lineups I always try to find, and these are the individuals whose tourney lineups I always like to explore. It should go without saying that this is one of the most valuable ways to learn how you should approach your NBA DFS thinking – and yet, this is one of the most overlooked and underutilized tactics for improvement.
There are lots of NBA DFSers whose lineups I like to explore, but I am going to “pick three names out of a hat,” so to speak, and list three of the guys whose lineups I always seek out:
Notorious
Makisupa
Pianoclub
In my opinion, those are three of the best NBA DFSers.
Who else would you add to the list? Are there any players whose lineups you look to as often as you can, in order to see how they are approaching roster construction each night? If so, let us know in the comments who those guys are.
Finally, I want to leave you with this thought:
If you are learning NBA DFS – if you are not yet a consistently and reliably profitable player – realize that you do not have to play every slate, and realize that you do not have to play at the types of stakes you hope to eventually be playing at once you are winning money in this sport.
Of course, when I tell someone they should tighten up bankroll and play with a much smaller buy-in until they are proving themselves to be consistently profitable, the most common retort I receive is this: “But what if I have a huge night? That would suck to put up a monster score and win less than I would have because I’m playing at smaller stakes.”
My response? – Basically, I feel that type of thinking indicates a belief that the “huge night” and the “monster score” in question are not something that can be duplicated; it indicates a belief that the “huge night” was a lucky outlier and will not happen again. If this is still how you are thinking, you should not yet be playing at more aggressive stakes! Until you reach a point where you feel confident that you can put up big scores on a consistent basis, you should not be expanding your bankroll to an aggressive extent.
If you’re using this week or this month or this season to learn, then learn! Focus on that, and don’t even worry about the pursuit of profit. After all, as long as you put in the time, you will keep learning. You will keep improving. You will continually become more profitable.
If you can’t put in the time? Well, then stop by each Friday! I’m sure I’ll be sharing some of my lineups with you next week, and I’ll walk through the positive and negative decisions I made. I’ll be improving; you may as well join me.
In the meantime:
Study ownership percentages and the lineups of top NBA DFS players each night.
And let us know in the comments some of the NBA DFSers whose lineups you like to seek out and study!
Go learn this week. Improve. And I’ll see you next week, when we can talk about all the progress we made over the seven days in between.