(Finding An) NBA Edge - Week 5

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This will not be a long article, but I believe it will be extremely valuable to those of you who read it.

Over the last few weeks, in the comments on my (Finding An) NBA Edge articles, many of you have asked what my “research” entails.

This is a fair question. After all, there are plenty of times when I mention that “my research led me to…” – which, naturally, gives rise to curiosity over what constitutes “my research.”

The answer?

I’m still trying to figure that out. And just the other day, I realized how far I still have to go in solidifying my research process for NBA.

In my article last week, I announced to you that I am going to be taking a larger role in RotoGrinders Premium moving forward, and that one of my first orders of business was to recruit @Jumpahoo to write an in-depth NBA article for us each weekday the rest of the season.

I am writing this in the pre-dawn hours of Friday morning, and in a few hours, Jumpahoo’s first article will go up in the Premium section of the site (if you are a Premium member, and you are reading this article on a weekday, you can find a new offering from Jumpahoo; if you are not a Premium member, keep an eye on the home page of RotoGrinders, as we’re going to make that article available to all readers a few times over the next few weeks). And when I sat down to write this article, and to talk about my “what my daily research entails,” the first thought that came to mind was not anything I have done myself in terms of research over the last few weeks, but was instead the introduction to Jumpahoo’s first article going up today.

That intro has some really valuable thoughts that, frankly, deserve a larger audience than can be attained from an article that is only posted for one day in the Premium section of the site, so I am going to scrape that intro and make it available for all of you below:

Begin Intro:

Grinders, welcome to the first of hopefully many “Jump Shot” articles. Each day, there are several sites, especially RotoGrinders, which offer incredible content. Many articles written provide surface-level picks, giving you quality recommendations without detailing how they came about their conclusions. In my opinion, the more information I can acquire from reliable sources, the better. However, if I do not understand why the author selects a particular player, then that information only remains valuable for that day’s slate. To me, there is only one goal in DFS: make profit. Nevertheless, it becomes damn near impossible to consistently win using other players’ picks and recommendations; essentially, your nightly DFS fate rests in the hands of someone else’s research. Furthermore, let’s say you win a nice GPP using that process. Will you be able to replicate that success again? Will you be able to consistently start winning nightly?

This is where I was when I first began. I started off playing relatively low limits ($3 – $10 entry fees), and I got absolutely destroyed the first week. This humbling experience fueled me to learn what I was missing that everyone else knew. The next few weeks I spent the majority of my free time perusing all relevant NBA DFS info Google could offer. After finding RotoGrinders and a few other credible sites, I began analyzing my lineups each night while also studying the highest scoring lineups of the night, and I would ask myself a few simple questions: why did player X crush it; why did player Y suck; and what themes do the top lineups have in common? So, each following day, I would go through the players that performed well and poorly and compare their results to certain advanced stats and metrics, looking for trends. It was at this point where I began to create my own process, and, sure enough, the money followed.

My hope in writing these articles is to provide grinders with a more in-depth look at each day’s slate, touching on certain advanced metrics, value, and roster construction. The overall goal, however, is to help each individual learn to create their own process because winning consistently requires one to develop their own dependable system. Additionally, I believe one’s process or system needs to constantly evolve and adapt to the ever-changing DFS landscape (i.e., DraftKings pricing changed dramatically this year to last). So, how does one learn to develop their own, reliable system? Easy. Well, it’s not actually easy; hard work is the cornerstone of success, but it is 100% achievable, and it revolves around one thing: constant critical thinking. When you make each lineup, take five minutes aside, and write down why you chose each player and constructed your lineup in that particular fashion. Then, that night or the following day, go through your lineups, the winning lineups, and the worst lineups and ask yourself why from many different angles. It is extremely important to set aside a brief period each day to investigate your reasoning (I understand many have time constraints, but try and do this if possible). The results will not happen overnight; however, within weeks, your understanding of NBA DFS will dramatically grow. The reason I believe this to be so important is because, for the most part, we all have similar access to the same information, yet there are a select few that are significantly better at analyzing the same information and applying it nightly to make eye-popping profit. Remember, our goal is for y’all to get to this point, and I encourage as many as possible to employ the scientific method to your DFS game.

End Intro

After reading that intro, then looking at some of the advanced statistics Jumpahoo uses in breaking down matchups (not to mention his ability to watch games and understand what he should be looking for in order to remain a step ahead of his DFS competition), I realized how far behind I still am in terms of “succeeding on my own in NBA.” This distance between “where I am now” and “where I want to go” was made to feel smaller than it actually is when I went 8-3 in cash games over a two week stretch, while cashing in tourneys six of those 11 slates. The last week before the All Star Break (detailed in last week’s article), when I went 1-4 in cash games and didn’t cash in tourneys once, was a sharp reminder that I still have some ground to cover.

And honestly, I may never cover this ground as much as I would like. I truly love studying and watching baseball; I truly love studying and watching football. Basketball is fun; I enjoy it; but I don’t love studying or watching it. This is important for me to realize.

Furthermore, I probably won’t ever play NBA heavily while football season is still in full swing, as NFL is where I make my most money each year, and I truly use most of the week to prepare for each slate. Taking a couple hours out of each day to play NBA – when that time could otherwise be focused on NFL – is just plain counterproductive.

So really, I have about two-and-a-half to three months each year during which NBA is my focus. And frankly, I’m so busy during MLB and NFL, I don’t even mind that NBA consumes less of my energy, attention, enthusiasm, and time.

With that said, however: I like to win. If I am going to do something, I want to go all-out. If I am going to try to succeed in a particular area, I want to do my best to succeed.

As far as I knew, before reading Jumpahoo’s first article, I had been “doing my best to succeed.” Now, however, I realize there are still lots of improvements I can make. And you know what? This is a good thing. It’s encouraging. Because it means that I’ve been just a bit above break-even this NBA season (stretching back to the few times I played in November and December), and yet, I am nowhere close to where I can be.

Last year at this time – when I was about a month into my first experience with NBA DFS – I would have been thrilled to know I could be a consistently “just a bit above break-even player.”

A year from now, I’ll be a lot better than I am at the moment, and I’ll look back and chuckle about the time when I was “just a bit above break-even.”

I’ll probably never be an elite NBA guy. I don’t have the passion required for that.

But also, I can improve. And I’ll continue to improve.

How?

Well, let’s take a look.

How Have I Improved?

(And how will that continue?)

(& how can u do the same?)

Did I get too clever there? – with the ampersand and the “u”? I was trying to convey that those three bold headings were sort of tiered. I guess, like most forms of cleverness, it’s no good if you have to explain it. Let’s just move on…

There are not many DFS players I would categorize as “knowing more about” or “understanding more about” MLB DFS than me. I’m sure there are others who feel the same way, of course. I’m sure there are others who believe their knowledge outstrips mine. And that’s great – that’s the way a top MLB DFS player should feel. But that’s also how I feel. Take CheeseIsGood out of the equation, and I would put my understanding of advanced statistics – and the underlying value of each individual statistic as a predictive tool – up against anyone else’s knowledge.

Why do I bring that up?

Because the path that led to me reaching that point is the same path I am attempting to follow in NBA.

If you remember back to my MLB articles last year, or if you ever purchased one of my MLB courses on RotoAcademy, you probably recall that I frequently talked about “doing research that is not specifically for that slate.” You see, my goal in MLB research is always to study the bigger picture of things. Where do certain players excel? Where do certain players fall short? In what types of matchups would you expect this player to do better than most expect? What are the statistical misconceptions that lead to elevated or depressed ownership percentages for various players?

And so on.

I studied each slate of games, of course. Always. But in my study, I aimed to focus as much on the “big picture” as on the day-to-day minutiae. Because of this, I can usually eyeball a slate and know which matchups I like, which players I am likeliest to target, where I am most likely to uncover market inefficiencies, and where I am likeliest to be able to take a road less traveled while outperforming my opponents along the way. Some of my best days in MLB, in fact, were days on which I did not have time to research. I eyeballed a slate and threw together a team and had a tremendous day.

But that was only possible because I had reached a point where I knew the teams, the players, the matchups, and the misconceptions so well that I could confidently dive in and build a solid team off the knowledge I already possessed. When people ask me what I study each day in MLB, my answer is usually some variation of: “Everything.”

You see?

There is no “one stat” or “one set of numbers” I look at for MLB. Instead, I aim to get to know all the players, inside and out. I aim to aggressively study the various advanced statistics that can be employed for MLB DFS, and in this study, I seek out my own interpretation of these numbers in order to identify places where others fall short in their algorithmic or hands-on approach. On days when I have time, I’ll try to learn about strengths and weaknesses of specific players I am considering that day. I’ll commit to memory (and to my notes) the circumstances in which various players are likeliest to succeed or are likeliest to fall short. I study trends. I watch games. I constantly challenge my assumptions, my thinking. In short, I aim to always gather knowledge and information that will not only help me “that day,” but will also help me in the future. My goal is to “truly know the sport” better than any of my opponents. By accomplishing this, I can gain a continual edge that can never be achieved by simply looking at a handful of specific stats for that specific day, or from simply reading the picks others offer up for consumption.

And in a bit of a half-hearted way, that is what I have attempted to do in NBA as well. That is what my “daily research” entails.

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Each day that I play NBA, I look at the games taking place that day and break down the fundamental elements: basic stuff like the Vegas line, DVP numbers, recent adjustments to playing time or responsibilities, and so on. But then, I also try to commit extra time and attention each day to learning a few extra things about some of the players I am considering: in what situations are these players most likely to succeed, and in what situations are they likeliest to fall short? – or, how do opposing players perform against them, and why? What are the tendencies of this team’s coach? What are the tendencies of other coaches in this matchup (and where is the coach in question likely to fall in line with what other coaches have done)? How are certain players affected by playing back-to-back slates? How are they affected by playing four games in five days? Does it make a difference if they are playing lots of games on the road versus at home? Does it make a difference, in general, if they are playing on the road versus at home? What are the strengths of the players I am looking at, and how do these strengths match up with the weakness(es) of the opponent likeliest to guard them?

The list goes on.

These are the types of things I try to look at, explore, and examine, each day.

On a large slate, I may only have time to pick up one or two pieces of information that will help me down the road. On a short slate, I may have a good hour or more to dig into various elements that do not necessarily apply directly to that day’s slate, but that will help me at some point in the future.

I don’t watch NBA games. I’ve told you that before. I don’t watch because I wouldn’t know what to look for. But I try to read recaps of the night’s games; I keep up with beat writers; I keep up with news about players, about coaches, about teams.

I may never be a top NBA DFS player – and I’m okay with that, honestly, because I’ll also never be a guy who gets excited about watching six hours of basketball each night. And putting in that type of time and that level of commitment is probably necessary in order to truly join the elite.

But also, I’m a lot better than I was at this point last year (a lot better!). And I’ll be a lot better at this point next year than I am right now.

And that’s how I’ve done it. When I study, I always try to study for more than “just that day’s slate.” I always try to study in such a way that what I am learning will help me down the road. I always try to look at the big picture, and to improve in an “overall” sense, and to find ways to uncover knowledge that goes beyond just what I need that day.

So, what does my research look like?

I don’t know, exactly. It changes every day. It changes as I learn more; it changes as I find more things to look at or pay attention to. As I improve, my research improves as well. I’m able to look at less basic metrics and statistics, because I know those metrics and statistics already. Each day, I know more about the NBA as a whole – its players, its coaches, its intricacies, etc. – than I knew the day before, and that means that each day I am able to dig in deeper.

“Do what you can do each day.”

That’s one of my favorite aphorisms (it also just so happens to be one I came up with myself).

In fact, I’ll tell you a quick story, then I’ll release you from captivity:

As many of you know, I’m a novelist. My first novel, ‘The Great Lenore,’ was published in 2011 (which means I actually finished the final edits in 2010). It’s now 2016. I do not yet have a second novel.

For a couple years (seriously, a couple years), I struggled to write at all. Not writer’s block (you’ve read me enough to know that I don’t have a problem pounding out a pile of words!), but it was just that I couldn’t write anything I was happy with – anything about which I was satisfied.

In 2013, I finally finished the first draft of a new novel – a story I had been working on for years and had not yet been able to capture onto paper. I wrote the entire first draft in nine days, committing to locking myself in my office and doing nothing but writing until the book was finished. Naturally, it wasn’t all that good. But at least it was there – written, something with shape, something concrete.

Over the next year or so, I spent a bunch of time editing that version of the book. Then, I realized it needed to be rewritten, which I did, using that original version as a framework.

About a month ago, I started rewriting this book a third time. I’m not even using the first two versions as a framework. (I mean…it’s the same characters. The same story. But I’m not referencing the first two versions as I write; all the writing, this time around, is essentially from scratch.) I am realizing that this version could not have been written without those first two versions having been written first. I’m thrilled with the way this book is coming together right now, and I certainly wish this had happened sooner, but without all the work I put in before, the work that is coming together now would not have come together.

“Do what you can do each day.”

As I write this “final first draft,” I am marking down the word count at the end of each day. Some days, I sit at my desk for two or three hours and only write 300 words (for comparison: this article is over 3000 words). Most days, I write 500 or 600 words. Some days, I write as many as 1000 words, 1200 words, 1500 words. No matter how many words I write on a given day, however, I can look at my “word count list” and see how much the word count has grown over the last month. And each time I look at that, I am reminded of the importance of that thought I try to live by:

“Do what you can do each day.”

What does my NBA research look like?

I do what I can do each day.

Care to join me?

About the Author

JMToWin
JM Tohline (JMToWin)

JM Tohline (Tuh-lean) – DFS alias JMToWin – is a novelist and a DFS player who specializes in high-stakes MLB and NFL tourneys, with a strategy geared toward single-entry play in multi-entry tourneys. He joined the DFS scene at the beginning of the 2014 MLB season, and has since won five DFS championship seats and two separate trips to the Bahamas. His tendency to type a lot of words leads to a corresponding tendency to divulge all his DFS thoughts, strategies, and secrets…which is exactly what he does in his RotoGrinders articles and RotoAcademy courses. You can find JM on Twitter at JMToWin.