Fontaine's Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 1

by Bryan Fontaine (rookieblitz) Last Updated 2013-09-08 15:22:41

Bryan Fontaine (RookieBlitz on RotoGrinders) is regarded as one of the best dynasty minds in the business. He is the Dynasty Editor and a Senior Writer for PFF Fantasy at ProFootballFocus.

Each week I will recommend several players that are primed for big performances when you look deeper at the numbers and trends. With the growing popularity of daily fantasy football, simply looking at the basic information and statistics available to everyone won’t give you the edge you need to consistently submit winning lineups.

Note: Hit the ($) icon for player prices this week

Pierre Garcon – (WR) Redskins

Pierre Garcon has declared his foot 100 percent after he struggled with injuries last year. He’s ready to roll as the Redskins top wide receiver and that coincides with the return of Robert Griffin III on Monday Night Football. This is a plus matchup for the passing game. The Eagles’ pass defense has also struggled in the preseason. Projected starters at cornerback Cary Williams and Bradley Fletcher combined to allow 14 receptions for 178 over four quarters this preseason. They weren’t much better last season either:

Williams will be the primary right corner back against Garcon at the X receiver spot on the left. In Week 14 last year, Garcon caught five passes for 83 yards and a touchdown against the Ravens. Williams, then a Raven, allowed two of those catches for 32 yards in coverage. This matchup favors Garcon.

Although Garcon is the prototype for a split end receiver, the Redskins are paying him like one and utilize him that way. He was targeted 63 times on 216 pass routes run last year for a 29 percent target rate. That rate put him in the top-five among all NFL receivers with company like Brandon Marshall and Andre Johnson. Health has been his issue lately, and he looks to get his season off to a great start in Week 1.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Garcon ended up with 40 percent of Griffin’s targets this week. I did not factor it into my projections, but based on the data on the Eagles’ corners – I could see Garcon adding an additional big play to these totals.
Projection

DeMarco Murray – (RB) Cowboys

Demarco Murray is a player I targeted all summer in seasonal leagues because he’s been criminally undervalued. He’s gotten an unfair bad rap because of his injury struggles but the important thing is that he is completely healthy for this prime time showdown with the Giants. There are a few other things working in his favor too. Bill Callahan is now calling plays on offense and has a stronger commitment to the ground game that Jason Garrett has. The zone blocking calls will help Murray’s one cut ability. And the team is shifting their base offensive formation to one that suits Murray better.

With the release of fullback Lawrence Vickers earlier this summer, the Cowboys are going to run more two tight end sets this year. That played out in the preseason with Dallas going with two or more tight ends on 50 percent of their snaps and three wide receivers and a tight end for the remaining 50 percent. So what does that mean for DeMarco Murray? Looking at his splits from last season showed he had more success running without a fullback:

¹ – Yards after contact per attempt

The Giants run defense struggled last year and we can’t automatically assume the same for the season. New York did re-sign Shaun Rogers and signed Cullen Jenkins to help their defensive tackle rotation. It is worth noting that Murray burned the Giants on opening night last year to the tune of 131 yards rushing.

The matchup could be better, but Murray has no competition for touches on the running back depth chart. He is a near-lock for 20+ touches at a reasonable price. That doesn’t even factor the attention the Giants defense will have to pay towards Dez Bryant, Miles Austin and Jason Witten. Advantage Cowboys.

Projection:

Alfred Morris – (RB) Redskins

Fantasy owners still haven’t completely bought into Alfred Morris yet despite a top-five finish last year. All Morris did as a sixth round pick was finish second in rushing yards to Adrian Peterson. His 1,613 rushing yards included a staggering 1,001 yards gained after contact. Most running backs would kill to get a 1,000 yard season, let alone all of those yards after contact. The other knock on Morris is that he isn’t much of a threat in the passing game. He caught 11 passes in 16 games last year. His lack of receptions had more to do with the offensive game plan more than anything. He ran a pass route on 27 percent of his snaps – leading to a paltry target rate per pass route run of 8 percent.

Morris was able receive the majority of the playing time among the running back group because of his pass blocking prowess. For any young back, let alone a sixth round rookie to have success is uncommon. He only let up two quarterback pressures on 85 pass blocking attempts. That was one of the most efficient rates among all running backs.

Now that we’ve set the stage for Morris, what does this all mean for his matchup against Philadelphia? The game will be on national stage with the primary story lines being Chip Kelly and the return of Robert Griffin III. It helps that Morris had success against the Eagles last year (averaged 83 yards and 0.5 TD per game). The Eagles new 3-4 defense struggled in the preseason. In their dress rehearsal game against Jacksonville, the team allowed 202 yards rushing and a touchdown on 34 attempts – which included 64 yards after contact surrendered. This is music to Morris’ ears.

This game against the Eagles could get out of hand at some point, and the Redskins will continue to let Morris do his thing. I have a strong feeling my projection is more on the conservative side.

Projection:

Danny Amendola – (WR) Patriots

It is probably cliché to say at this point, but Danny Amendola really is a Wes Welker clone. Despite their similar backgrounds before joining the Patriots and playing the same slot position at Texas Tech – Amendola has quickly proved himself so far in the preseason.
We don’t really care about his preseason stats, but we did see how the Patriots are going to use Amendola. First off, he’s not going to be just a slot player. In a small sample size, Amendola lined up on the outside 53 percent of the time.

The other thing we care about is how often Brady was looking for him on the field. We know Amendola had eight targets in the preseason, but that was on just 17 pass routes run. That’s an astounding 47 percent target rate (targets divided by routes) that will not hold up during the season unfortunately. Although Amendola’s aDOT (average depth of target) was only 7.3 yards, his career average in St. Louis was 6.1 yards, and he did show the ability to not rely solely on shorter routes with his 26-yard touchdown catch against Ahmad Black of the Buccaneers.

Now that we’ve established Amendola is essentially Welker 2.0 and as I mentioned above that Brady will be relying on two undrafted rookies as offensive weapons – Amendola is in for a big week. The Bills are going to sorely miss cornerback Stephon Gilmore who developed into a top cover corner down the stretch last season. Gilmore’s likely replacement is Ron Brooks. Brooks would draw Amendola in coverage, which bodes well for the Patriot. Brooks allowed three touchdown passes in a three game stint as a starter last season.

Amendola is a bargain this week. The numbers say Brady won’t miss a beat transition from Welker to Amendola. Find a way to get him in your lineup.

Projection:

Tom Brady – (QB) Patriots

Tom Brady is criminally undervalued this week. We know he’s without his top five receivers from 2012 for a variety of reasons – and that includes Rob Gronkowski missing the game due to injury. Brady has a long history of success versus Buffalo, which includes averaging 289 yards passing and three touchdowns against the Bills in 2012. It sounds weird to say it with what we know now, but Brady did not have Aaron Hernandez for either contest last year. Something to keep in mind as we review what weapons he will have this week.

So who will he have to throw to? We already know Danny Amendola will be his primary target (more on him below). Undrafted rookie Kenbrell Thompkins appears capable to fill Brandon Lloyd ’s role on the outside, and that doesn’t include draft picks Aaron Dobson or Josh Boyce. Zach Sudfeld looks like another find for Belichick as an UDFA who can replace some of Gronkowski’s production.

Convention wisdom says this could easily be a run-heavy based on the Patriots success on the ground last year versus Buffalo. New England ran 69 times for 364 yards and 6 touchdowns in those two games. Brady still attempted 74 passes because most of those runs came with the game in hand. The offensive only averaged three less snaps in those games than they did in their other 14 games. The tempo in which the team runs its offense creates more opportunities than most other teams. Brady is the catalyst for that success with his ability to keep drives moving.

Don’t be concerned about the lack of experience Brady’s weapons have in this offense. The names have changed over the years, but Brady continues on his Hall of Fame run. Brady is not cheap this week, but I feel he’s undervalued with a good shot to be the top fantasy scorer at the position.

Projection: