Fontaine's Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 3

by Bryan Fontaine (rookieblitz) Last Updated 2013-09-22 13:50:17

Bryan Fontaine (BryanFontaine on RotoGrinders) is regarded as one of the best dynasty minds in the business. He is the Dynasty Editor and a Senior Writer for PFF Fantasy at ProFootballFocus.

Each week I will recommend several players that are primed for big performances when you look deeper at the numbers and trends. With the growing popularity of daily fantasy football, simply looking at the basic information and statistics available to everyone won’t give you the edge you need to consistently submit winning lineups.

Note: Hit the ($) icon for player prices this week

Last week my recommendations were much stronger than in Week 1. Cutler, McCoy, Martin, Marshall and Marlon Brown all turned in good performances. Jared Cook on the other hand…. Sometimes even with all the data we have, we still can’t predict the future. Don’t worry; I also had Cook in about 90% of my lineups. We’ve got more data points and trends to go on this week, so let’s get to the recommendations:

Ryan Tannehill – (QB) Dolphins vs. ATL

Ryan Tannehill has a plus matchup this week against a struggling Atlanta pass defense. The Falcons did not sack Sam Bradford last week and have allowed a 64% completion percentage and an average of 355 yards passing, 2.5 touchdowns and an interception through two weeks. The Falcons’ corners and linebackers were abused against St. Louis last week:

If this was last year, Tannehill would have struggled to take advantage of this opportunity because of a lack of weapons. Even without Dustin Keller in the lineup, Tannehill has spread the ball around to several targets:

Wallace and Hartline should have a field day against the Falcons secondary, making Tannehill a low-cost addition to your lineup – especially if this game turns into a shootout.

Projection:

Sam Bradford – (QB) Rams at DAL

Sam Bradford is not going to sneak up on anyone at this point, but his salary this week remains grossly undervalued on most sites. He got most of his production in a comeback attempt last week at Atlanta but faces an equally as bad secondary in Dallas that has surrendered 673 yards and six touchdowns to a combination of Eli Manning and Alex Smith. There isn’t just one Dallas defender playing poorly, as a collective unit they have struggled at each level of the defense:

Although the Rams’ skill players are inexperienced, they deserve the edge here, especially on the outside against Claiborne and Carr. Jared Cook will bounce back strong given Dallas’ issues at safety and linebacker.

Bradford’s efficiency is more noticeable thus far as well. Through two games he is averaging five more offensive plays per game over last season and has yet to take a sack. The trends indicate his strong start to the season will continue for at least another week in Dallas.
Projection

Marshawn Lynch – (RB) Seahawks vs. JAX

Marshawn Lynch bounced back from a tough performance in Week 1 to a truly dominant performance against San Francisco. He appears to be worth every penny this week in a home matchup against Jacksonville.

Sometimes a suggestion doesn’t have to be complicated. Jacksonville is allowing 173 rushing yards per game at a 5.6 yard clip. That includes 84 yards gained after first contact. The Seattle home crowd will assist the defense create turnovers and short field opportunities for the offense – giving Lynch increased scoring chances as the primary ball carrier. He has accounted for 62 percent of the Seahawks’ rushing attempts thus far.
Don’t overthink it; find a spot for Lynch this week.

Projection:

Alfred Morris – (RB) Redskins vs. DET

Alfred Morris makes a return to the recommendation list after a one week hiatus. While he largely disappointed in Week 1, last week was a tad more kind to him despite the game script working against him.

This week the Redskins return home for a matchup against Detroit. The plan will be to get him going early to take some pressure off of Robert Griffin III and control the clock. Washington has been in a significant deficit on the scoreboard for the last two weeks – largely needing garbage time to salvage reasonable fantasy days.

Detroit’s defensive line can be formidable when Nick Fairley is healthy, but that isn’t a certainty. The Lions have surrendered 190 yards and three rushing touchdowns in two weeks – including 139 yards after contact. If Morris can make it to the second level, he’ll have the chance to break off some long runs against a suspect secondary.

Morris’ fantasy numbers are a mild disappointment thus far, but he remains ahead of last year’s pace in several key areas. He just needs a steady dose of carries this week to get back on track.

Projection:

Josh Gordon – (WR) Browns at MIN

It may seem foolish to trust a second-year player coming off a two game suspension on a team that just traded away their franchise running back and have to start a journeyman quarterback. Now that the stage is set, we shouldn’t forget how dominate Gordon was for a stretch last season and he has all the makings of a top WR1 in fantasy.

With Richardson gone, the team will have to become more pass-heavy and Greg Little and Davone Bess have shown they don’t deserve double digit targets. And we shouldn’t immediately write off Brian Hoyer. The front office likes him and he produced in a Week 17 start last season with 330 yards passing and a 9.4 aDOT. More importantly, Michael Floyd enjoyed a fine day with eight receptions for 166 yards and a touchdown. Both he and Gordon are similar players.

The threat of Gordon beating the defense downfield (13.7 aDOT as a rookie) will open up additional opportunities for his teammates, but make no mistake about it – Gordon is going to see a heavy volume of targets win or lose, regardless of the game script. He’s a difference maker.

Projection:

DeAndre Hopkins – (WR) Texans at BLT

DeAndre Hopkins became a household name last week with his heroics in overtime to seal the win with an impressive touchdown grab displaying body control and a my-ball mentality. Most of his production came with Andre Johnson in the locker room. It appears Johnson will return this week, leaving Hopkins to return to second fiddle duties. Hopkins proved he can be a useful option when called upon, and this week could be one of those times.

Baltimore played Cleveland tough at home last week – clamping down on their subpar receiving corps sans Josh Gordon. Of course, Peyton Manning carved up the Baltimore defense on opening night:

So which defense will the Texans see? Probably a mix between the two though Matt Schaub is no Peyton Manning. The secondary weapons for the Broncos got theirs, and these figures don’t include “Julius Thomas(player-profile)”:/players/Julius_Thomas-11821’ breakout performance at tight end.

Given the Texans need to pass more this year to stay in contention, it makes sense to ride the hot hand in Hopkins – particularly at his reasonable price this week.

Projection:

Julian Edelman – (WR) Patriots vs. TB

It’s easy to call Julian Edelman the best wide receiver in New England at this point. He’s the last one standing. With Amendola and Gronkowski likely out again, Tom Brady will rely on Edelman to move the chains. Looking at the matchup, most will fear a potential matchup with Darrelle Revis and steer clear away. If the recent trends hold up, Edelman should only see Revis on about 47% of his total snaps at the most. Revis rarely plays the slot, and alternates between left and right corner:

Edelman was in the slot on 47 percent of his snaps against the Jets, and his slot duties amount for 38 percent of his offensive snaps through two games. Look for Leonard Johnson to draw Edelman in coverage for most of the day. It wouldn’t be unheard of to see Edelman with 14 targets with a good chance to find the end zone again after failing to score on his 13 receptions last week.
Projection

Julius Thomas – (TE) Broncos vs. OAK

It’s safe to say that Julius Thomas is not a fluke at this point. Through two games, his 16 targets account for 19 percent of Peyton Manning ’s total attempts. He has been targeted a whopping 29 percent of the time he runs as pass route – which is only about 40 percent of the time he’s on the field. Because his role has expanded to include more blocking duties, he is the every down tight end. Essentially this means when Thomas does run a route, there is about a one in three chance the football is going his way.

With the extra attention paid to the trio of wide receivers for Peyton Manning, Thomas has created mismatches against a variety of coverage:

It won’t help the Raiders that Tyvon Branch will miss this contest (and much longer) in an effort to contain Thomas. Look for Thomas to log a third straight top-10 fantasy day on Monday night.

Projection:

Tyler Eifert – (TE) Bengals vs. GB

Tyler Eifert makes for an interesting low-cost alternative this week because Green Bay has struggled to cover the tight end through two games. As a team, they have allowed an average of 6 receptions for 71 yards and 1.5 touchdowns – mostly to Vernon Davis (5 rec, 83 yards, 2 TD). Here is a breakdown of the Green Bay defenders in coverage of opposing tight ends. The middle of the defense is clearly vulnerable:

Eifert has yet to overtake Jermaine Gresham for the top spot on the tight end depth chart, but the Bengals are using two tight end sets on 65 percent of their offensive plays. If he can create similar mismatches like his did on his 61-yard catch and run on Monday night – it will allow you to stack your lineup elsewhere.
Projection