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Forecasting Adjusted Defenses (AFC Edition)

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Heading into the 2017 NFL season, we are presented with an opportunity to measure what teams accomplished the prior season. Many projection systems (including pricing algorithms on major DFS sites) simply stop here. This is an area we can attack in the early weeks of the season.

How do we attack it? We need to measure how defenses performed on an adjusted basis. We can do this relatively quickly by applying a Simple Rating System (SRS) to assess offseason changes to coaching staff, offensive/defensive philosophy, schedule difficulty, and personnel. Once the SRS is in place, we can quickly judge a matchup and more accurately assess the differential between an offensive and defensive unit on a level playing field.

Let’s look at the big picture. First, here are adjusted DK Point projections for every offense and defense heading into Week 1.

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About the Author

  • Josh Hornsby (joshadhd)

  • Josh Hornsby leads engineering research & development teams in the oil & gas industry. His background in new product development, combined with nearly 20 years of data-driven fantasy experience, compels him to think outside the box. Josh loves to challenge popular thinking and typically does so with numbers and visualizations in hand. You can find him on Twitter @FantasyADHD.

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