Forecasting Adjusted Defenses (NFC Edition)
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Heading into the 2017 NFL season, we are presented with an opportunity to measure what teams accomplished the prior season. Many projection systems (including pricing algorithms on major DFS sites) simply stop here. This is an area we can attack in the early weeks of the season.
How do we attack it? We need to measure how defenses performed on an adjusted basis. We can do this relatively quickly by applying a Simple Rating System (SRS) to the late weeks of the 2016 season (I used Weeks 12 -16 for this study). This will take the average output allowed by a defense (or generated by an offense) and adjust it to schedule strength.
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