FREE NBA DFS Picks: 1/22 - DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo
January 22nd brings us a massive 12 games worth of daily fantasy sports fun, and we’re looking at our player projections to find the very best choices for tonight’s slate. As you might expect with a 12-game slate, there are dozens of viable options even beyond our top choices below.
You’ll want to stay connected with our NBA DFS optimizer, LineupHQ, to ensure you have full visibility to all of our top projected players. There you can browse through NBA DFS expert rankings, projected ownership, and other picks and strategy daily. You can also check out our NBA DFS content schedule for the full range of stats, articles, videos, and more we have available.
Without further delay, let’s check out who the projections think will smash their salary implied value tonight!
Top DraftKings DFS Value Pick – High Smash Probability
Lou Williams
DK Salary:$7,300.00
FPTS Projection:46.59
FPTS Ceiling:61.96
Early Projected Ownership:Very High
Per our range of outcomes projections, we expect Lou Williams to smash for DraftKings GPP value in roughly 49.29% of his outcomes.
— We currently project 33 minutes and 1.41 fantasy points per minute.
— The Hawks allow 6.79% fpts/gm above average.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 35.95% USG Rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 5.82% rebound rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 43.4% assist rate.
It sounds insane to project a 40+% assist rate for a guy like Lou, but that has been his production level with the key Clippers superstars off the court. Tonight, they will be out. Kawhi will rest, George will remain absent, and now Patrick Beverley will miss with an injury he sustained last evening. We already know Lou will chuck (36% USG projected), but now we can tack on a juicy matchup with Hawks to aid his efficiency. Per our DvA Matchup Tool, the Hawks surrender 8% above average to combo guards and 12% above average to scoring wings. Lou fits at least one of those archetypes on a typical basis, and should absolutely crush his salary implied threshold nearly 50% of the time.
Top FanDuel DFS Value Pick – High Smash Probability
Montrezl Harrell
FD Salary:$5,900.00
FPTS Projection:41.61
FPTS Ceiling:62.00
Early Projected Ownership:Very High
Per our range of outcomes projections, we expect Montrezl Harrell to smash for FanDuel GPP value in roughly 47.81% of his outcomes.
— We currently project minutes and 1.39 fantasy points per minute.
— The Hawks allow 6.79% fpts/gm above average.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 29.75% USG Rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 14.35% rebound rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 19.44% assist rate.
Harrell will also benefit from the additional fantasy production vacated by the absence of Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, and Patrick Beverley. In 366 minutes with those players off the court, Harrell is producing at 1.28 fantasy points per minute inclusive of a 13% assist rate, 12.5% rebound rate, and 31% USG rate. In a good fantasy matchup against the Hawks, we expect he’ll be slightly better than that. It’s a tremendous spot that will be difficult to avoid despite very high projected ownership.
Top Yahoo! DFS Value Pick – High Smash Probability
Michael Porter
Yahoo Salary:$15.00
FPTS Projection:31.59
FPTS Ceiling:42.65
Early Projected Ownership:Very High
Per our range of outcomes projections, we expect Michael Porter to smash for Yahoo GPP value in roughly 44.78% of his outcomes.
— We currently project 31 minutes, and 1.02 fantasy points per minute.
— The Rockets allow 3.48% above average.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 20.75% USG Rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 13.59% rebound rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 7.23% assist rate.
Porter certainly has some downside at this projection, and perhaps the return of Gary Harris to the fold will make it more volatile. The last thing we need is more bodies involved for Mike Malone to play around with. That being said, even a more modest projection would still have Porter looking awfully nice at his $15 price tag on Yahoo. Porter is fresh off of two fantasy performances that would have eclipsed his 80th percentile ceiling were they to happen to today. We view him as almost 45% likely to reach his GPP target score, and somebody you should strongly consider as a salary saver on Yahoo tonight.