FREE PREMIUM - NBA DFS Expert Survey: Tuesday, May 3rd
Want to know who we are paying up for in NBA DFS today? Wondering which value play we are eyeing most? You’re in luck. Our daily fantasy sports experts will answer a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions for tonight’s contests.
NBA Expert Survey – Tuesday, May 3
Who is your favorite player to spend up for in optimal lineups?
meansy53: Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD) / Jaylen Brown (DK)
Notorious: Ja Morant
MrTuttle: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Who is your favorite player to spend up for in large-field contests?
meansy53: Stephen Curry
Notorious: Jaylen Brown
MrTuttle: Steph Curry (FD) / Ja Morant (DK)
Who is your favorite salary relief play in optimal lineups?
meansy53: Derrick White
Notorious: Derrick White
MrTuttle: Derrick White
Who is your favorite salary relief play in large-field contests?
meansy53: De’Anthony Melton
Notorious: Pat Connaughton
MrTuttle: De’Anthony Melton
Who will be the biggest bust relative to salary?
meansy53: Jordan Poole
Notorious: Grayson Allen
MrTuttle: Jordan Poole (FD) / Desmond Bane (DK)
Who are you most afraid of being underweight on compared to the field?
meansy53: Jordan Poole
Notorious: Desmond Bane
MrTuttle: Ja Morant
Who do you believe you’ll be most overweight on compared to the field?
meansy53: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Notorious: Ja Morant
MrTuttle: Draymond Green
Which team are you targeting players from the most?
meansy53: BOS
Notorious: BOS
MrTuttle: BOS
Which useful trend or statistic stuck out most during your research?
meansy53: The 40.2% true shooting percentage from Giannis Antetokounmpo in Game 1 was the lowest from him in any game this entire season…and he still finished with 58.6 FD / 64.25 DK points.
Notorious: In Game 1, Jaylen Brown was 4-for-13 from the field with seven turnovers. Jayson Tatum was 6-for-18 with three turnovers. Despite both struggling with efficiency, they managed to score 32 and 42 fantasy points. They are in great bounce-back spots heading into Game 2.
MrTuttle: After not seeing the court at all in the last two games of the Minnesota series, De’Anthony Melton played 25 minutes in Game 1 against the Warriors. Melton’s role is far from secure but he is a strong value option with some upside if he can hit the 20 minute mark again.
Who is your top overall play (when considering price, matchup, roster construction, etc.) on the board and why?
meansy53: Giannis Antetokounmpo – I mean, see my answer to the question above as to why I think there is all the upside in the world here tonight. Obviously, a lot of credit for that should go to Boston, but it is pretty telling that Giannis is at the point where he doesn’t even have to shoot the ball very efficiently to have huge fantasy performances. Let’s not forget either that he probably lost a handful of minutes of court time due to foul trouble (at the end of the third quarter) and garbage time (last two minutes of the game). He is an extremely easy fit on FD tonight due to some loose pricing, and I’d be fine sacrificing an upper mid-tier play or two on DK to make sure I get him in to most lineups.
Notorious: Ja Morant – I fully understant that Giannis, Tatum, and Curry are going to project better based on long-term rates, but this is the playoffs. Morant is coming off of a series against the Wolves where he was incredibly productive in DFS despite poor efficiency on the offensive end of the floor. I thought this series against the Warriors set up better for him and he put up 68 fantasy points in the opener. The Warriors have some good perimeter defenders, but they aren’t quick enough to stay in front of Morant. This is close to a must-win game for Memphis and I expect Morant to keep it going in Game 2.
MrTuttle: Giannis Antetokounmpo – Before the series started there was a lot of talk about how good the Celtics are defensively and how many different bodies they can throw at Giannis. Well, it turns out that Giannis is just really damn good. The Greek Freak posted a monster 24/13/12 line in Game 1 good for 58.6 FD points and 64.25 DK points. It’s entirely possible that Boston has more success stopping Giannis in Game 2 but even a “mediocre” performance out of him could be enough to land him into optimal lineups as one of the top scorers on the slate.
Who is your top contrarian play (when considering price, matchup, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?
meansy53: De’Anthony Melton – Clearly, Melton will be needed far more in this series against the Warriors (for his defense on Steph, Poole, etc.) than he was in the series against the Timberwolves. After catching DNP-CD’s in the last two games of that series, he played 25 minutes in Game 1 against Golden State (racking up 34.9 FD / 33.25 DK points along the way). The early run of pOWN% has him in just the 3-7% range and, even if that comes up a little bit later on in the day, it still might result in him being “contrarian” since we only have a two-game slate. And who knows, maybe Desmond Bane (questionable) ends up not playing either.
Notorious: Pat Connaughton – I continue to fade Grayson Allen and my bankroll continues to be poorer for it. However, I will eventually be right that he can’t sustain the pace that he’s on. On top of that, Jevon Carter has given them very little off the bench. Eventually, I expect Connaughton to start playing a few more minutes off the bench. He has averaged over 20 fantasy points in his last four games and he’s still cheap across the industry.
MrTuttle: Steph Curry (FD) / Ja Morant (DK) – I’ll be honest, I don’t have a strong take on either of these guys. Both players project as a top four raw scorer on the slate but could see a dip in ownership on their repsective sites simply because of pricing dynamics. If you feel more strongly about one of these guys than I do, try to take advantage of it by going overweight on them on the site where they project to be lower owned.
What is your hot take of the day?
meansy53: Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jayson Tatum both score at least 40 actual points.
Notorious: Ja Morant and Draymond Green post dueling triple-doubles and the Grizzlies tie up the series.
MrTuttle: Giannis and Jayson Tatum combine for 130+ DraftKings points.
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NOTE: Our analysts do their best to update their answers as news comes out throughout the day. For the most up-to-date picks and projections as lineup lock approaches, be sure to head to LineupHQ.
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