From Crappy to Crafty: A Guide to Better DFS Pt. 1
A Guide to Better DFS: Part 1
Throughout life we are told that in order to become truly great at something you must change your mindset. You must not only have the desire to be great, but you also must start thinking and performing in a way that is superior to your peers. Making this transition from ‘one of the flock’ to ‘leader of the pack’ is not an easy one. It takes time, work, energy and a willingness to go above and beyond. My aim with this article series is to help you make this transition as a Daily Fantasy Sports competitor.
My credentials as a daily fantasy player are not overly impressive. I do not play high stakes or high volume every night like some of the ‘big boys’ on the RotoGrinders Leaderboards. But I believe I can provide some insight that these guys cannot. This is not meant as a slight to the Condias and Kaiserolls of the world. These guys are great players and make a killing playing tons of volume for tons of scratch every night. But I know what its like to manage a micro-bankroll. I’ve had less than $8 in my account on numerous sites wondering if and how I’m going to keep myself afloat in this crazy competitive world we play in. But I’ve always survived. For nearly three years now I’ve scratched and clawed my way to significant, consistent DFS profit margins. Now lets see if I can offer a few tips to help some members of the RG Universe do the same.
Tip #1: Play Sustainable Game Types
You’ve all heard this mantra, but I’m sure that like me, you’ve had a difficult time taking it to heart. We all want to chase the big prize, the big score and the large payout. But in order for us ‘run-of-the-mill’ players to hit the big payday, we need to win one of the large field tourneys. And as I’m sure most of you know, this is easier said than done.
Don’t get me wrong here fellas, I’m not saying you can’t play the big tourney. By all means go after it every once in a while when you love the lineup you’ve got. But what seems to happen to some of the newer guys (and for short periods us grizzled vets as well…) is that we seem to start chasing. For me it usually starts with a ‘just-missed’ in the big tourney. You know the 9th place finish for $60 and if you had picked DeMar Derozan instead of Klay Thompson you would have hit pay dirt. It gets my confidence up and my wallet loose. And that’s where the chase begins… Before you know it 1/4th of your holdings on that site are gone and the 9th place finish is a thing of the past.
So how do we combat this behavior you ask? We combat it by playing sustainable game types. My recommendation, as it always has been, is to play enough H2H/Double-Up contests to cover your large field tournament entries. This way you avoid having countless losing nights when you have a decent lineup. Example being, on a night where you are playing $10 worth of tournaments on FanDuel, you need to play something in the $15-$20 neighborhood worth of h2h/double-up contests. If you win these, but don’t cash in the tournament, you are still looking at a modest profit for the night, rather than a total loss.
This concept sounds very simple to execute. But in the DFS world these massive tourneys are publicized hard, and it seems like nightly they are getting bigger and more lucrative. You can keep one eye on the prize, but remember if you want to maintain a long-term place in DFS keep both feet firmly planted on the ground.
Tip #2: Get By with a Little Help From your Friends
When RotoGrinders launched in 2010 the site became the hub, or focal point if you will, for the Daily Fantasy Sports Community. The site has now evolved into a massive information platform, a strategy database, a bald-man podcast and a place for any and everything DFS related. But at its core the site will always be a community. And to me this is the most important and helpful aspect of RotoGrinders.
Every night we are faced with tough decisions on who to play, how to play and what to play. For many of us these questions span across multiple sites with limited time allotted for research and evaluation on each one. This is where making some friends can come in handy. I can’t tell you how many times a simple conversation with one of my ‘peeps’ has either made me or saved me some serious money. The discussion can range from ‘Hey Man should I pick Paul George or Paul Pierce at Small Forward Tonight?’ to ‘Do you have anything definitive on “Greg Monroe(player-profile)”:/players/Greg_Monroe-1487’s status for tonight?’
When it comes to lineup advice help, it may or may not turn out well (and if it doesn’t you can deflect some blame…), but in general this communication is helpful. And getting injury updates or inclinations on in/out from your friends can save you countless minutes that would have been spent checking news that can now be spent on more productive tasks.
These friends can be lifesavers, so I recommend making them. If you need one I’m available. No casual encounter requests though please.
Tip #3: Scour through Boxscores
Let me start by making a general statement related to this tip:
Do some goddamn work yourself.
Don’t expect to just get on RotoGrinders, read HeadChopper’s Daily Plays Article, plug in some guys and succeed. No. No. No. You have to look at things that happened from the night before. How many shots did a guy take? He got 28 minutes, but was any of it in garbage time? Was he in foul trouble? Was there some type of injury that had an influence on playing time?
All of these things are not readily apparent on the surface. You have to go looking for them. Think of it like this… You probably have a hometown team in one of the four major sports that you watch religiously. For me, that team is the St. Louis Cardinals. I do not miss a game and I know the ins/outs/inner workings of the entire roster. So therefore, when it comes to the really tough last man in your DFS lineup decisions, I have MUCH more confidence when it comes to selecting Cardinals than I do any other MLB team. Our goal by scouring through boxscores is to generate a knowledge base for every team, like we have for OUR team. We obviously can’t watch every game, every night, so by doing our due diligence in the morning or the next day, we can generate a knowledge base that will GREATLY improve our chances of success moving forward. Put in the time here, and I promise you will get the results.
And if you not doing the work, but you spend the time complaining about your lack of success in the RG forums, you are dead to me. This is serious stuff and requires some work. Don’t expect to do nothing and achieve everything.
Tip #4: Use Crunch Time Wisely
A topic of much discussion in the DFS world, specifically on RG, is how to spend the time leading up to game-lock every night. For some, this may not be a debatable topic, as they may be using the last few minutes just to enter lineups due to time restraints caused by everyday life. But for those of us fortunate enough to have ample time for lineup creation and evaluation, we often find ourselves wondering how to most productively spend the last 15-30 minutes we have prior to games locking up. Here are my thoughts:
- Do not start creating lineups on a new site with less than 30 minutes remaining. It creates a time crunch that leads to mistakes and does not allow enough time for consideration and reflection of selections.
- Do not make any lineup changes when you are less than 30 minutes out UNLESS they are due to injury related news or updates. These last minute edits are usually due to simple boredom. I.E. – you are done creating lineups, but you’ve got time left. You are just tweaking to tweak at this point.
- Injury news MUST be viewed every couple of minutes leading up to game lock time. Some nights nothing will happen. Other nights all chaos will break loose (The Popovich Special as I like to call it). Either way you need to be on top of it.
- You may have multiple lineups on each site. But label one lineup on each site ‘preferred.’ Spend the last 15 minutes going to each of the sites at which you have a ‘preferred’ lineup. If you see tournaments that aren’t full or players with little experience, pick up some games. This is ‘overlay’ and ‘fish’ monitoring and it is a huge opportunity for padding the bankroll. Again though let me emphasize that this tactic should be used ONLY IF you have a lineup made already. Do not try to start creating lineups for these reasons. Big time no no.
- Stick around until lock time. Dinner can wait. Disaster can be the result if you walk away early. Don’t be left regretting a night full of lineups with no chance. Hang around as long as possible and you will find success.
Tip #5: Evolution of your Evaluation
This is a bit of a piggy-back on the scouring box scores tip, but I think it can be generalized to include more than just box scores.
Rookie DFS players ask the question ‘What’ when it comes to evaluation of their performance. What place did I finish? What score did I get? What happened last night? All these things are fine and good, but they don’t allow for deeper exploration.
The evolved player instead asks the question ‘Why?’ Why should I choose this injury replacement over another? Why did my center have a lackluster performance? Why did I not score better?
Can you see the difference in these questions? The successful players ask deep questions that can be researched and subsequently solutions can be found. This is opposed to the rookie who asks surface-level simplicities that lead nowhere fast.
Start asking yourself ‘Why’ rather than ‘What’ and see where it leads you. I would be willing to bet it’s in the right direction.
That’s all my secrets for this week. I’m going to be doing a bit more reflection and introspection myself over the next week. My goal is to bring you even more brilliance as it relates to evolving as a DFS player. Who knows, I may even seek out some insight from some of the brightest stars in the RG community.
Until next time,
KC