From DFS to NJ Sports Betting: Monday, October 8th

Online sports betting is now a very real and completely legal process in New Jersey. As laid out in the intial article, the purpose of this piece is to decipher which daily fantasy skills translate well to sports betting. This journey will also be about acquiring additional skills necessary to succeed in a sports betting endeavor.

Please note that I do not profess to be good at this (as the current record now attests). Follow along at your own peril.

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Today’s Plays

(Favorites to win per unit – i.e. 1.5 units to win 1 if -150, dogs risking per unit)

Final Update

Indians -126 (FD) 1.26 units to win 2.26
Indians more hits +115 (BS) 0.5 units to win 1.08
Two Team Parlay: Yankees and Saints to win +140 (DK Special Odds Boost) 1 unit to win 2.4 units
Aaron Judge to hit a HR +300 (FD Daily Odds Boost) 0.5 units to win 2

4 PM ET Update

This will be the only update today. I’ve been wavering back and forth on both side and total for the Monday Night Football game, which generally means a pass is the best play. However, DraftKings is offering a Special Odds Boost parlay that may be tough to pass up.

Additionally, FanDuel has a boost on the HR odds for Aaron Judge to +300. The basic question to ask is will Judge homer in this spot one out of three times. Great home park, struggling bullpen and Judge is a strong hitter against velocity as well.

Two Team Parlay: Yankees and Saints to win +140 (DK Special Odds Boost) 1 unit to win 2.4 units
Aaron Judge to hit a HR +300 (FD Daily Odds Boost) 0.5 units to win 2

Friday’s Results:

MLB

Lorenzo Cain 0.5o runs scored +115 (DK) 1 unit to win 2.15 L -1
Christian Yelich 0.5o runs scored +110 (DK) 1 unit to win 2.10 W +1.1
Jesus Aguilar 0.5o runs batted in +120 (DK) 1 unit to win 2.20 L -1
Two team parlay: Brewers & Dodgers +131 (SH) 0.5 units to win 1.16 W +0.66
Yankees +163 (FD) 1 unit to win +2.63 L -1

CFB

Middle Tennessee State +135 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.35 W +1.35
M.Tenn.St./Marshall 50.5u (FD) 1.1 unit to win 2.1 L -1.1

MLB

Day Total 2-3 -1.24 units
Grand Total 92-101-1 +2.52 units
Sides 47-60 -5.17 units
Totals 37-30-1 +3.78 units
Parlays 5-6 +1.14 units
Props 6-6 +3.0 units
Futures 0-1 – 0.2 units
Promotions 2-0 +$58.09

NFL

Day Total
Grand Total 5-4 +1.64 units
Spread 2-1 +0.9 unit
Moneyline 2-0 +2.05 unit
Totals 1-1 -0.06 unit
Parlays 0-1 -1 unit
Props 0-1 -0.25 units

CFB

Day Total 1-1 +.25 units
Grand Total 6-6 -0.25 units
Spread 2-3 -1.3 units
Totals 3-3 -0.3 units
Moneyline 1-0 +1.35 units

Friday’s Recap

Friday’s offensive issues for the Brewers have long since been forgotten. They did keep us from cashing two of three player props here, but both they and the Dodgers went up 2-0 to cash the small parlay, while the Yankees quickly dug themselves into a hole they couldn’t climb out of in Game One in Boston.

Much has happened in these series since Friday, giving us three games scattered throughout the day on Monday.

Not recorded here, this was my first better than break even college football weekend, capped off by hitting four out of five on a Round Robin parlay.

Sunday was even better. A 60+ yard field goal to win the game for the Panthers resulted in hitting a five team moneyline Round Robin. Minnesota and Houston wins competed a seven teamer as well.

It was a good weekend, at least monetarily.

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Monday Baseball

I feel somewhat handicapped, having played the Dodgers for the series and then the Yankees at +225 once they were down 2-0. That would seem to give me enough of a rooting interest in the later games that further wagering might be unnecessary. The Yankees, in particular, are a large favorite. If they win tonight, I may consider coming back with Boston for the series in a dog role.

I’m also going to continue to be stubborn and believe the Indians are going to get back into this series, although Andrew Miller being broken would be a huge problem. They were unable to touch either Verlander or Cole, but that’s true for most teams this year in one of the most negative run environments in baseball.

Cleveland returns home to face Dallas Keuchel. Mike Clevinger beats him by strikeout rate (25.6% to 17.5%), ERA (3.02 to 3.74), SIERA (3.86 to 4.15), xwOBA (.296 to .303) and aEV (86.6 mph to 87 mph). Sure, Keuchel pitched in a much tougher division, but also spent much more time in very negative run environments.

I’m also going to be playing an Odds Boost prop from BetStars in this game. It seems odd that the Indians are favorite, yet they are +115 to accumulate more hits.

Indians -126 (FD) 1.26 units to win 2.26
FanDuel also has a special divisional series promo where bets are insured if leading after six innings.
Indians more hits +115 (BS) 0.5 units to win 1.08

There may not be another afternoon baseball update, but I do plan on returning at least one more time with any Monday Night Football thoughts.

MLB Post-Season Props and Futures

I currently have the following WS winner futures active

Dodgers +600
Indians +1000
Brewers +1400

All were 0.5 units or below.

The Brewers have already moved on. The Dodgers could so today, while the Indians could be eliminated. Also, as mentioned, but not recorded, I have further plays pending for the Dodgers and Yankees in their current series. A Brewers/Dodgers series would ensure that I have at least one live play in the World Series.

The RotoGrinders Network

You may have noticed the new branding on the main RotoGrinders page today, which now brings together daily fantasy, seasonal fantasy, sports betting and poker all under the same banner. Basically, just about any form of sports and gaming entertainment you’re interested in, RotoGrinders has you covered.

RotoGrinders has launched Sharp Side, a new sports betting app. Track plays and win great prizes right now! Many more tools and features are to come.

About the Author

  • Matt Trollo (MTro86)

  • Matt has written for ReupSports in the past where he developed his unique pitching charts. He probably watches and reads more about baseball than any normal human being would find enjoyable, accumulating an incredible wealth of mostly useless knowledge, while he patiently waits for his jedi powers to manifest. In addition to writing the Advanced Pitching Charts column for RotoGrinders, MTro86 also heads up the premium MLB News Alerts during baseball season.

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