The Genesis Invitational Weather Report and Forecast
The weather in La Jolla, CA may be famously great, but we’ll have an ugly start to The Genesis Invitational, with showers on Thursday and Friday.
As usual in my golf weather forecasts, we’re focusing more on wind than rain. While rain can halt play if it’s heavy enough, it also helps soften and slow the course, which helps as much as it hurts.
With wind, there’s no helpful side; it’s all negative impact. And the impact can lead to dramatic differences in scoring. My goal is always to try to highlight the time frame with the lightest winds and the time frame with the strongest winds to see if there’s a cumulative advantage for one wave over another.
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The Genesis Invitational Weather Forecast
Thursday, February 13th
They are starting off the tournament with some weather woes. We actually have a Flood Watch issued in La Jolla from 10:00 AM Thursday to 4:00 AM Friday. High-resolution forecast models are holding off the bulk of the truly heavy rain until after golfing hours on Thursday, but there’s still off-and-on showers possible all day. Winds should hold around 10 mph sustained, gusting up to 20 mph. Late in the afternoon, we could see winds kick up a hair beyond that.
Friday, February 14th
Another day with scattered showers possible at any point in the day. Winds should again stay at roughly 10 mph sustained, with gusts up to 20 mph. Models are a bit split, with some bringing in stronger afternoon winds, but my preferred forecast models are not on board with that increase, so I’m leaving it out of my official forecast.
Saturday, February 15th
As ugly as it should be for days 1 and 2, it sure turns around over the weekend. Winds stay light (under 10 mph) and sunshine returns.
Sunday, February 16th
Closing it out with great weather — light winds and no precip.
The Genesis Invitational Weather Thoughts
Pretty ugly start with rain Thursday and Friday, but my current feeling is that the rain is light enough to play through for the most part (exception being maybe late Thursday depending on timing). Despite the off-and-on rain showers, winds look fairly consistent…or at least not varied enough to gain a huge edge from it.
I think the average conditions will be around 10 mph sustained with 20 mph wind gusts. While some models have higher winds both afternoons, my current lean is that we could see some stronger winds very late Thursday but that Friday likely stays steady. Because the weather is generally “wet with 10 mph sustained winds and stronger gusts” throughout the first 2 days, I don’t have a strong take as to which wave is preferred. However, I have a slight lean towards a Thursday AM / Friday PM build, in order to make sure the ugly stuff late Thursday doesn’t move in while golfers are still on the course.
For the latest info as The Genesis Invitational forecast changes, stay tuned to @KevinRothWx on Twitter or check my main forecast page.
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