Georgia vs. Alabama Odds: CFP National Championship Prediction and Picks
Despite losing to Alabama by 17 points just a month ago, the Georgia Bulldogs are betting favorites to win the 2021 College Football Playoff National Championship game. The line opened Georgia -2.5 with an over/under of 52.5 before the spread moved to -3 at most sportsbooks, as of Monday afternoon.
Both teams are coming off dominant victories in the CFP semifinals. No. 1 Alabama kicked off New Year’s Eve by beating No. 4. Cincinnati 27-6. Not to be outdone by their SEC rivals, No.3 Georgia followed with a 34-11 win over No. 2 Michigan.
Alabama kept Cincinnati out of the end zone for 60 minutes, while Michigan didn’t score a touchdown against Georgia until there were four minutes left in the game.
The performances avenged what had been an embarrassing bowl season for the SEC, which was a combined 1-5 before the two conference hegemons took the field on New Year’s Eve.
Alabama and Georgia are set to clash again, 37 days after the conference title game, this time with even more on the line.
While head coaches Nick Saban and Kirby Smart are game-planning, college football bettors must decide how much stock to put into what we saw last time they played. Is the recent meeting a likely blueprint for what will happen in the national championship or should it largely be ignored?
The Case for Alabama Against the Spread
If the game is still fresh in your memory or if you’ve glimpsed at the box score, you might be wondering how Alabama is the underdog in this matchup. After all, the Tide went to work against Georgia in the SEC Championship.
Heisman-winning quarterback Bryce Young diced Georgia’s secondary to shreds, racking up over 400 passing yards and three touchdowns en route to a 41-24 win.
Not only did the sophomore have a field day, but the defense consistently pestered quarterback Stetson Bennett, picking off the former walk-on twice, including once for a touchdown.
The 2021 SEC Championship aside, Nick Saban has dominated his former assistant and Georgia head coach, Kirby Smart. Smart is 0-4 against his mentor, losing their first meeting in the 2018 national championship, two SEC championships, and a regular-season game in 2020. The 2018 College Football Playoff championship was the closest of the four, as Saban’s squad won by three points in overtime. Since then, Saban has outscored Smart 117-76 head-to-head.
A few things have changed since December, and exploiting Georgia’s secondary will be a more difficult task this time around.
The Case for Georgia Against the Spread
Some may say Smart, knowing Georgia was a lock to get into the College Football Playoffs whether they beat Alabam the first time or not, held back in the SEC Championship. The suggestion is that Smart limited his playbook and saved a few tricks, rather than risk giving away any tells, in case the two teams met again on January 10.
I don’t buy it. Smart desperately wanted to get the Saban monkey off his back then just as he does now. Maybe there was a sliver of gamesmanship and long-term thinking on behalf of Smart but nothing so significant that it would’ve altered the outcome.
If there’s a reason to think things won’t play out similarly next Monday, it’s that Young will be missing his favorite target, John Metchie III. Metchie led the Crimson Tide with 91 receptions in the regular season, then caught six passes for 97 yards and a touchdown before exiting the SEC Championship with a season-ending ACL injury. Without Metchie available, Alabama opted to attack Cincinnati on the ground — the exact opposite strategy used against Georgia.
Before the CFP semifinal, Alabama’s running game had been somewhat disappointing, averaging only 4.1 yards per attempt. However, Brian Robinson Jr. rushed for a career-high 204 yards against the Bearcats. Alabama overmatched Cincinnati up front, but that won’t be the case against the Bulldogs, who boast the best defensive front in the nation. Their only vulnerability is seemingly their secondary. Put all the pieces together and they still put forth the no. 1 defense in success rate allowed and EPA allowed.
How to Bet on the College Football Playoff National Championship
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After you’ve signed up, the next step is making a pick. We’ve already laid out the case for both Alabama and Georgia against the spread. One team has a more proven coach, a Heisman-winning quarterback, and a small data point from December in their favor (others may call this recency bias). On the other hand, the betting market stubbornly, or wisely, favors Georgia and doesn’t seem to be budging.
Sharp Report: Where’s the Smart Money?
We’re still seven days away from the big game, but it appears there’s a heavy dose of sharp money on Georgia. Our friends at Scores and Odds aggregate betting percentages from across the sports betting industry, and right now, they show 73% of bets on Alabama yet the line has moved to Georgia -3 at a handful of books, including DraftKings, BetMGM, FanDuel, PointBet, and Caesars. (-2.5 is still available at Bet Rivers and Unibet.)
That’s because 60% of the betting handle (the money) is backing the Bulldogs. This suggests sharp bettors jumped on Georgia -2.5, and the market has reacted accordingly.
I don’t see this line moving past Alabama +3, so if you’re leaning toward betting on Alabama, then it’s probably best to do so now. If you like Georgia, then either grab the best available number at BetRivers and Unibet or wait for this to dip back to -2.5, possibly -2, as we get closer to kickoff.
Georgia vs. Alabama Prediction
Betting on Alabama +3 is exactly what I’m doing today. Georgia’s biggest question marks are with their quarterback and secondary. Bennett responded to criticisms stemming from his lackluster SEC Championship performance by passing for 313 yards and three touchdowns against a tough Michigan defense. However, there’s still skepticism surrounding the former walk-on. Saturday marked only the third time Bennett had more than 25 pass attempts in a game, and when Bennett’s PFF passing grade free-falls from 89.4 with a clean pocket down to 37.5 when under pressure.
As for Bama’s receiving corps, it looks like Jameson Williams, who injured his shoulder on special teams, will be ready to go next Monday night. While Young will certainly miss Metchie’s presence, Ja’Corey Brooks and Slade Bolden proved sufficient downfield. Brooks recorded four receptions, 66 yards and a touchdown, while Bolden had three receptions, 31 yards and a touchdown. Both players will have even more integral roles in the national championship, as Alabama’s offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien tries to take advantage of Georgia’s susceptible coverage. Getting out to an early lead will be key for the Tide to force Georgia and Bennett out of their comfort zone. Luckily, they have the quarterback and coach to do just that.
Though I expect Alabama to take it to the air, I am betting on a lower scoring affair here. Georgia ranks 73rd in pace, and I’ll be surprised if Alabama’s passing game is as efficient as it was a month ago. Still, it’ll be good enough to deliver Alabama their seventh national title under Saban.
PREDICTION: Alabama 27, Georgia 24
PICKS: Alabama +3 (-110), Under 52.5 (-110)
CFP National Championship Props
Props, don’t forget about props. We’ll have more on our favorite prop bets for the College Football Playoff National Championship later, but here are some minor notes.
PrizePicks CFB DFS
If you don’t live in a state with legal sports betting, you can still get action on the championship game at PrizePicks, a popular DFS prop site currently available in 29 states. Georgia-Alabama props haven’t yet opened, but there will definitely be a few intriguing angles. I picked four Alabama player props against Cincinnati, all of which hit and would’ve cash had you combined them with props from another team. We’ll try to find similar value when National Championship props come out.
Early Thoughts and Player Notes
Brian Robinson, RB – This running back prop could be inflated following his massive 200-yard performance. He only had 55 yards on 16 carries in the SEC Championship. Georgia is the best defensive unit, and as we touched on earlier, their strength is in the trenches and with their linebackers. Georgia’ run defense only allowed 2.7 yards per carry this seaon, and they were the first team to hold Michigan below 100 yards rushing.
Brandon Slade, WR – Slade’s reception prop was 2.5 in against Cincinnati and he went over with three receptions. This over/under might open at 3 receptions this time, but I expect Bolden to get a few more looks since there will be more of an emphasis on the passing game.
Ja’Corey Brooks, WR – The freshman stepped up and nearly matched his career total (5) by grabbing five catches. He averaged 16.5 yards per reception. Brooks gave us a peek at his big-play capabilities against Auburn, when he turned two receptions into 49 yards, including a 28-yard touchdown pass. Neither performance was a fluke — the true freshman joined Alabama as the no. 2 overall wide receiver in the 2021 class. At 6-3 and 190 lbs, he’s a sizeable target for Young. Watch for the quarterback to his name again on the biggest stage yet.
Remember to check back for more news and betting tips for the College Football Playoff National Championship throughout the week!
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