Giants vs. Steelers Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Giants vs. Steelers Odds
| Giants Odds | +6 |
| Steelers Odds | -6 |
| Over/Under | 36.5 |
| Date | Monday, October 28th |
| Time | 8:15 PM ET |
| TV | ESPN |
This week’s Monday Night Football matchup will feature Daniel Jones and the New York Giants against Russell Wilson and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 PM ET on ESPN.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Steelers as 6-point favorites on the spread. The total is set at 36.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks.
According to Evan Abrams of The Action Network, the Steelers are 21-1 SU in home Monday Night Football games. On the other side of this matchup, since 2003, Daniel Jones owns the lowest win percentage among all quarterbacks (minimum 5 starts) in night games. Jones is 1-15 SU at night during his career, including 1-7 SU on the road in such situations.
New York Giants Preview
Last chance for Danny Dimes?
According to Jordan Raanan of ESPN, Jones took all of the 1st-team reps this week at practice and is not expected to be on a short leash this evening, despite getting pulled in the 4th quarter in Week 7. Jones has struggled mightily to begin the season, ranking 26th in EPA/play, 23rd in success rate, and 20th in CPOE through 7 weeks. As a consequence, the Giants’ offense has only managed 1 touchdown in the past 2 games and only 3 total offensive touchdowns in their last 4 games. This is not a high-powered unit by any measure, and even Jones at his best offers minimal upside at the quarterback position.
Giants’ defense hoping to continue strong start
Entering the weekend, New York’s defense led the entire NFL with 31 sacks, which was the most sacks for any team through 7 games since 2017. They lead the league in sacks per pass attempt and adjusted sack rate as well, with all of the advanced metrics supporting everything good that fans are seeing on the surface.
The larger issue for this defense has been what happens when the defensive front can’t bring down the quarterback. Despite having the league’s best pass rush, the Giants’ defense still ranks 22nd in success rate against the pass and 20th in success rate against the run.
This group likely needs to generate turnovers tonight if they want to keep the scoreboard competitive.
Pittsburgh Steelers Preview
New quarterback, new-look offense for Pittsburgh
From Week 1 to Week 6, Justin Fields ranked 20th among 36 qualified quarterbacks in aDOT, running a very conservative brand of offense for the Steelers. Last week, with Russell Wilson making his first start of 2024, this unit looked completely different. Wilson had the 10th-highest aDOT of any starting quarterback in Week 7 and finished with the 7th-best passer rating on throws 20+ yards downfield.
The result was a season-high 37 points for the Steelers, which was the most the franchise has scored in a single game since 2021. George Pickens was Wilson’s favorite option in the passing game, receiving a team-high 9 targets. No other member of the offense had more than 4 targets.
Can Tomlin’s defense keep getting away with it?
Entering play in Week 8, Pittsburgh’s defense has held their opponent to 20 points or fewer in 3 consecutive games and in 6 of 7 games overall. However, the way in which they have been achieving those results is seemingly unsustainable.
Through 7 weeks, Pittsburgh’s defense ranked 5th in EPA/play but only 13th in success rate, indicating that they have been less formidable on a down-to-down basis than their surface-level results otherwise suggest. The key to their success has been their ability to generate turnovers, with 13 takeaways already. This will be an area of the game to watch tonight.
Giants vs. Steelers Prediction
There are many reasons to want to fade the Giants in any given week, but they are getting a touchdown on the spread in a primetime battle against a Steelers team that has likely overachieved to date. If the Giants can take care of the football, they should be able to compete on a down-to-down basis with Russell Wilson and company. An outright upset would be a surprise, but getting a touchdown in what should be a low-scoring game is difficult to pass up.
PICK: Giants +6 (-108, DraftKings)
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