2021 Charles Schwab Challenge PGA Golf Betting Picks

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2021-05-26 12:36:06

The 2021 rendition of the Charles Schwab Challenge returns to Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas around its customary time of the year and featuring a more customary gallery-filled setting. The event marks the 75th anniversary of Colonial hosting an invitation — initially won by Ben Hogan in 1946.

After an exciting PGA Championship that saw a return to glory for Phil Mickelson, online sportsbooks wasted no time opening golf odds for outrights and finishing positions for a relatively stacked field of golfers headed to Texas. Let’s dig into some golf betting tips and 2021 Charles Schwab Challenge picks.

Charles Schwab Challenge Odds

Jordan Spieth headlines a field that features several golfers atop the Offical World Golf Rankings (OWGR). Spieth played very well, as anticipated, at Kiawah Island, but a tough Friday round derailed what could have been a weekend of contention. Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, last year’s winner, Daniel Berger, Patrick Reed, Will Zalatoris, and a freshly minted PGA Champion, Phil Mickelson, will tee it up this weekend. Spieth assumes the role of favorite across online betting sites but Justin Thomas lurks closely after a disappointing missed cut in last week’s major championship.

Take a closer look at more Charles Schwab Challenge odds, accurate as of May 24 and courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook.

Charles Schwab Challenge Course Preview and Key Statistics

Colonial Country Club spans just above 7,200 of bermuda grass with bentgrass greens. The par 70 course features only two expansive par 5s with seven par 4s resting between 400 and 450 yards. Fairways are very narrow and lined with plenty of trees that should guard the course from high winds. Daniel Berger won the 2020 Charles Schwab Challenge — notable because this was the first tour event to take place in the June restart. The field was star-studded and longer stars tried to use length to overcome a course that is rife with dogleg holes. With the event occurring slightly earlier this year and the field strength down a bit, I anticipate a return to the normal focus on iron play and precision.

As for statistics, I am going to emphasize SG: Approach, Par 4 scoring (400-450), SG: Putting (filtered for bentgrass), and ball striking. Scrambling will factor in a bit as well as fairways gained.

Jordan Spieth won the tournament in 2016 and has not missed a cut since. In really strong current form, the Texan will get a lot of buzz this week and will likely be clicked into many DFS lineups. But does he make my golf betting card this week?

Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Picks

In short, no. While I cannot deny the current form displayed by Jordan Spieth or the merits to playing him, I typically don’t find myself purchasing outright tickets on extremely short odds. Embracing variance, I worry more about the long game and love the price on Joaquin Niemann this weekend.

Joaquin Niemann 33-1 (BetMGM)

Risking 1 unit to win 33

Niemann has not missed a cut in his three starts at Colonial Country Club and has not missed a cut in 16 starts this season on tour. He checks the box with SG: Approach and Ball Striking and ranks in the top ten in Strokes Gained over his last 36 rounds on courses with bentgrass greens. Niemann put together a strong performance at Kiawah Island despite showing his customary leaks around the greens. With the ability to hit fairways and find himself comfortable numbers around the myriad of doglegged holes, Niemann should be in the mix on Sunday.

Corey Conners 25-1 (PointsBet)

Risking 1 unit to win 25

I just cannot help myself. Throughout the last few months, Corey Conners has made my betting card repeatedly only to fail to find his onto my betting sheet last week at the PGA Championship. A ball striking machine, the only chink in Conners’ armor seems to be the putter — especially on bentgrass. That said, if what the broadcast team repeats is true, when Conners puts together a strong week of putting, he is going to win. Like the aforementioned Niemann, Conners heavily checks the boxes for both ball striking and SG: Approach. He is always a threat to put together a low round as evidenced by his first round at Kiawah Island and feels like a hole-in-one waiting to happen at this point. Throw him in your PGA DFS lineups on DraftKings and get him on your card. I won’t miss his winning week.

Brian Harman 40-1 (PointsBet)

Risking 1/2 unit to win 20

In the field this week, two players have five consecutive cuts made at Colonial Country Club since 2016. One of those players is Jordan Spieth (making a good case for a fade, aren’t I?). The other? Well, I mean, yeah, Brian Harman — wouldn’t have made much sense to bring it up in this section if it wasn’t him.

While another lefty won the PGA Championship, Harman missed the cut but finds himself at a course built for his grinder-like profile. He finds himself in the top ten in putting, scrambling, and par 4s (400-450) in the field when filtering for bentgrass greens. Length is not a must at Colonial Country Club but making pars will be crucial to making a deep run on Sunday evening. Harman might not be the sexiest play but should find himself in the mix with his ability to churn out pars all week.

Brian Stuard Top 20 5-1 (DraftKings)

Risking 1 unit to win 5

Scrolling way down on our golf betting charts, we find Brian Stuard. Stuard made the cut in his last three starts at Colonial and has two consecutive cuts made at the Byron Nelson and Wells Fargo. Stuard ranks second in fairways gained on bentgrass greened courses over his last 50 rounds and ranks 12th in par 4s between 400-450 yards. While I am not advocating anything more than a microscopic bet on an outright victory, I like the price to finish top 20 this weekend.

Thanks for reading this week’s article. Be sure to follow me on Twitter for my stream of consciousness during this weekend’s event. Good luck with all of your picks.

Image Credit: Imagn