Hawks vs. Warriors: NBA odds, Picks and Predictions
Hawks vs. Warriors Odds
| Hawks Odds | +2 |
| Warriors Odds | -2 |
| Over/Under | 236 |
| Date | Mon, Jan. 2 |
| Time | 10:00 p.m. |
| TV | NBA TV |
Tonight, Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks will travel to the west coast to play the short-handed Golden State Warriors at the Chase Center. On Monday, Atlanta will be without Clint Capela due to a right calf strain. Golden State will be missing Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins from their lineup. Both teams are missing key contributors in this spot, which has oddsmakers expecting a closely-contested affair, pricing the Warriors as 2-point home favorites on the spread.
Atlanta Hawks
Impact of Chris Capela’s absence
Per Cleaning the Glass, the Atlanta Hawks rank in the 53rd percentile in offensive efficiency and the 59th percentile in defensive efficiency this season when Clint Capela is on the floor. When he is on the sidelines, those numbers regress to the 26th percentile in offensive efficiency and the 43rd percentile in defensive efficiency. Since Capela last played on December 23, the Hawks are 0-3, having lost to the Indiana Pacers, Brooklyn Nets, and Los Angeles Lakers.
Struggling to defend the paint
In their last three games, Atlanta ranks 23rd in opponent field goal percentage in the restricted area and 15th in opponent field goal percentage in the paint (non-restricted area). On the Warriors, Jordan Poole and Kevon Looney, the two players with the most field goal attempts in the paint for the Warriors in Stephen Curry’s absence, are the two players most likely to benefit from the Hawks’ inability to defend around the rim.
Golden State Warriors
Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins remain out
Since Stephen Curry last played on December 14, Golden State ranks 26th in the NBA in Net Rating, having been outscored by 4.3 points per 100 possessions. Four consecutive victories at home, including an impressive Christmas Day win over the Memphis Grizzlies have the market granting this team respect, but the market may simply be reacting to recency bias. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Warriors rank in the 16th percentile in offensive efficiency and the 25th percentile in defensive efficiency when both Curry and Wiggins are off of the floor this season. Make no mistake, this is not a good basketball team as presently constructed.
Expect a Poole Party
Per CourtIQ, Poole is averaging 30.2 points per 36 minutes this season when Curry and Wiggins are on the sidelines. In Poole’s most recent trip to the hardwood, he erupted for 41 points against the Portland Trail Blazers, snapping a recent bout of inefficiency in the process. Poole enters play tonight having attempted at least 20 field goals in four consecutive games. Expect him to continue being aggressive on the offensive end of the floor, especially against an Atlanta defense without an intimidating presence in the paint.
Hawks vs. Warriors – Picks & Predictions
Both the Hawks and Warriors are missing key defensive pieces from their starting rotations for this evening’s contest. When Capela is off of the floor this season, the Hawks are significantly worse than league average defensively, and particularly vulnerable in the paint. Golden State ranks in only the 25th percentile in defensive efficiency this year when Curry and Wiggins are on the sidelines. Expect a high-scoring affair between two teams without many players capable of getting stops in this one – take the over.
PICK: Over 236 (-110, FanDuel)
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