Heat vs. 76ers: NBA odds, Picks and Predictions
Heat vs. 76ers Odds
| Heat Odds | +6 |
| Warriors Odds | -6 |
| Over/Under | 217 |
| Date | Mon, Feb. 27 |
| Time | 7:00 p.m. |
| TV | NBA TV |
The Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers will begin a new week of NBA action in the City of Brotherly Love on Monday evening at the Wells Fargo Center. Entering play, Miami (32-29) owns the seventh-best record in the Eastern Conference, sitting eight games behind Philadelphia (39-20), which owns the the third-best record in the standings. Oddsmakers are anticipating a win for the 76ers in this matchup, pricing Philadelphia as 6-point home favorites on the spread.
Miami Heat
Herro listed as questionable
According to Anthony Chiang, Tyler Herro was able to go through shootaround earlier this morning, making it more probable than not that he will be able to take the floor this evening against Philadelphia. Herro is averaging 20.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 4.4 assists per game this season for Miami, having started 47 games.
Per Cleaning the Glass, the Heat rank in the 49th percentile in offensive efficiency and the 83rd percentile in defensive efficiency with Herro on the court this year, compared to the 10th percentile in offensive efficiency and the 70th percentile in defensive efficiency when he is on the sidelines.
Who will step up for Miami if Herro doesn’t play?
When Herro and Kyle Lowry are off of the court this season, Jimmy Butler sees a noticeable uptick in offensive responsibilities – averaging 25.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per 36 minutes, according to CourtIQ. Still, Butler’s role fluctuates on a game-to-game basis without Herro. In his absence this year, Butler has scored as many as 35 points, but as few as 13 points.
Bam Adebayo has been a more reliable contributor in these spots, with zero games of fewer than 17 points and only two games with fewer than 10 rebounds since November 7 when Herro is in street clothes.
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Philadelphia 76ers
Pretenders or contenders?
Since December 9, Philadelphia owns the best record in the entire NBA, at 27-8. In that span, they are second in the league in Net Rating, having outscored their opponents by 5.4 points per 100 possessions.
Despite losing to the Boston Celtics in their most recent contest, there remains little doubt that the 76ers are one of the NBA’s most intimidating home teams, with a 19-4 record at the Wells Fargo Center since November 22.
After years of falling short of expectations in the postseason, Philadelphia appears to be establishing themselves as a legitimate threat in a top-heavy Eastern Conference playoff picture.
Embiid making a run at MVP
Following a modest beginning to the campaign, Joel Embiid turned things up a notch in mid-November and has not looked back. Across his last 39 games, he leads the NBA in scoring – averaging 34.2 points per contest on 53.5% shooting from the floor. He also ranks 11th in the league with 10.5 rebounds per game and is seventh in blocks per game during that time period, leaving little doubt that he is an impact player on both ends of the floor.
Heat vs. 76ers – Picks & Predictions
Despite the fact that Philadelphia has been elite at home this season, there is reason to believe that this line is mispriced ahead of tip-off on Monday. Entering play, Miami ranks second-best in the NBA in defensive efficiency on the road this year, allowing only 111.4 points per 100 possessions.
The market is likely factoring-in the potential absence of Tyler Herro, who is questionable. However, Herro seems likely to take the floor this evening after going through shootaround this morning. It would not be surprising to see this line close with the 76ers favored by only five points if Herro ends up ruled in.
Assuming Herro suits-up, the road underdogs have value in this spot.
PICK: Heat +6 (-110, Caesars)
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