Heat vs. Hawks: NBA odds, Picks and Predictions
Heat vs. Hawks Odds
| Heat Odds | -1 |
| Hawks Odds | +1 |
| Over/Under | 223.5 |
| Date | Mon, Jan. 16 |
| Time | 3:30 p.m. |
| TV | TNT |
Monday afternoon, the Miami Heat will travel to State Farm Arena to play the Atlanta Hawks. Entering their Martin Luther King Jr. Day matchup, both the Heat (24-20) and the Hawks (21-22) occupy a play-in position in the Eastern Conference standings. In this rematch of last year’s first-round playoff series, oddsmakers are expecting a tightly-contested affair, pricing the Heat as 1-point road favorites on the spread.
Miami Heat
Heat getting hot
Following a slow start to the campaign, Miami has won 12 of their last 17 games, including three in a row leading into Monday’s action. Since December 12, the Heat rank seventh in the NBA in Net Rating, having outscored their opponents by 3.5 points per 100 possessions.
The key to their success has been a return to a Miami-brand of defense, allowing only 109.8 points per 100 possessions. The Heat have continued to struggle defending the perimeter, ranking 23rd in opponent three-point percentage during their recent hot-streak, but have made up for that deficiency by defending well without fouling and forcing turnovers – the third-most in basketball in that span.
Lowry OUT
Per Cleaning the Glass, the Heat rank in the 35th percentile in offensive efficiency and the 64th percentile in defensive efficiency when Kyle Lowry is on of the floor this season, compared to the 40th percentile in offensive efficiency and the 85th percentile in defensive efficiency when he is off of the floor. When Lowry is in the lineup, Miami is 17-19, compared to 7-1 when he is in street clothes.
Per CourtIQ, Tyler Herro sees the largest increase of any player on the roster in usage (+1.7%) when Lowry is off of the court. In such situations, he is averaging 22.0 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 4.7 assists per 36 minutes of action.
Atlanta Hawks
Capela listed as questionable
Since Clint Capela last played on December 23, Atlanta is 4-6, ranking 22nd in the NBA in Net Rating. In 27 games with Capela in the lineup this year, the Hawks are 15-12, compared to a 6-10 record when he is not in uniform.
Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta ranks in the 52nd percentile in offensive efficiency and the 61st percentile in defensive efficiency when Capela is on the floor this year, compared to the 27th percentile in offensive efficiency and the 48th percentile in defensive efficiency when he is off of the court.
In Capela’s absence, the Hawks have particularly struggled to defend around the rim – ranking 18th in opponent field goal percentage in the restricted area across their last 10 games. His status is worth monitoring ahead of tip-off on Monday.
Trae Young finding his shot
Per Kevin Chouinard, Trae Young was shooting 40.8% from the floor and 28.5% from beyond-the-arc prior to December 15. Since that point, Young has improved to 46.0% from the field and 41.7% from three-point land.
Prior to December 15, Atlanta was averaging 110.3 points per 100 possessions. In 14 games since Young’s improvement began, the Hawks are averaging 113.9 points per 100 possessions. If Capela can return to the floor for this holiday matchup, this group could put together a strong offensive performance – even against a tough Miami defense.
Heat vs. Hawks – Picks & Predictions
If Clint Capela remains out for this contest, bettors are getting extremely good value on the Miami Heat as 1-point road favorites in this spot. In eight games with Kyle Lowry on the sidelines this year, the Heat are 7-1. In 16 games with Clint Capela out of the lineup this season, the Hawks are 6-10. Be sure to monitor the injury report ahead of tip-off before locking in any large wagers.
PICK: Heat -1 (-105, Caesars)
Image Credit: Imagn