Heat vs. Mavericks: NBA odds, Picks and Predictions
Heat vs. Mavericks Odds
| Heat Odds | -1.5 |
| Mavericks Odds | +1.5 |
| Over/Under | 218.5 |
| Date | Fri, Jan. 20 |
| Time | 7:30 p.m. |
| TV | ESPN |
On Wednesday evening, the Miami Heat will play the Dallas Mavericks at the American Airlines Center. Entering play, the Heat own the sixth-best record in the Eastern Conference and the Mavericks own the fifth-best record in the Western Conference. Ahead of tip-off oddsmakers have Miami priced as slim 1.5-point road favorites on the spread.
Miami Heat
Starting five together again
On Friday, the Heat will be at full strength, with their full complement of starters available – a rare occurrence for this team. Miami’s starting unit is among the best in basketball when fully intact. Per Cleaning the Glass, Miami ranks in the 97th percentile in Net Rating with all five starters – Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, Caleb Martin, and Bam Adebayo – on the floor together, outscoring their opponents by 12.0 points per 100 possessions.
Miami does the majority of their damage on the defensive end of the floor in these spots, ranking in the 99th percentile in defensive efficiency and the 98th percentile in forced turnovers. In their most recent game, the Heat won the first quarter 36-23 on the road against the New Orleans Pelicans.
Heating up
Better health in recent weeks has helped Miami to overcome an underwhelming 12-15 start to the season. Since December 12, the Heat are 13-6, with notable wins against the Los Angeles Clippers, Milwaukee Bucks (twice), and New Orleans Pelicans in that span.
Across their last 19 games, Miami ranks 8th in Net Rating, outscoring their opponents by 4.0 points per 100 possessions. Only the Memphis Grizzlies and Brooklyn Nets have a better defensive efficiency during that time period.
Dallas Mavericks
Running on fumes
Since January 8, the Mavericks are 1-5 overall, with their lone victory in that span coming in double-overtime against the Los Angeles Lakers. In the win, Luka Doncic played 53 minutes, and each of the other four starters totaled at least 47 minutes.
After resting Doncic in Sunday’s loss to the Portland Trail Blazers, Dallas came home to play the Atlanta Hawks – losing 130-122, a game in which only six players saw more than 20 minutes of playing time.
Thin rotation
Across their last six games, Dallas ranks 22nd in the NBA in bench scoring, with only 29.3 points per contest. Including the Mavericks, the nine teams with the fewest bench points per game in that stretch are a combined 18-36, with none of them having a winning record.
The absence of Maxi Kleber and other role players is not something that immediately catches the attention of bettors, but it has an impact.
Heat vs. Mavericks – Picks & Predictions
Christian Wood will be out for tonight’s game for the Dallas Mavericks. Per Cleaning the Glass, Dallas ranks in the 77th percentile in offensive efficiency and the 35th percentile in defensive efficiency with Wood on the floor this year, compared to the 68th percentile in offensive efficiency and the 30th percentile in defensive efficiency when he is on the sidelines.
Considering Dallas’ already thin bench, this is a significant loss for this group. The Mavericks are 23-19 with Wood in the lineup this year, but only 1-3 when he is in street clothes.
Expect a healthy Miami team to get off to a strong start this evening on the road, and for Dallas to struggle in the early going with one of their core offensive contributors unavailable. Bet the Heat to have the lead after the first 12 minutes tonight.
PICK: Heat ML – 1st quarter (-115, DraftKings)
Image Credit: Imagn