How to Play and Win at Tennis DFS
Daily Fantasy Tennis has gained popularity in recent years, attracting a vast pool of players from around the globe. DraftKings offers sports fans the chance to win cash prizes each week, and in this article is a brief primer on how to play and win at Tennis DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports).
Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) for tennis involves creating a virtual team of tennis pros and earning points based on their real-world performance. The objective is to outscore your opponents and finish at the top of the leaderboard, which happens all in just 1 day (usually – the weather may have something to say about this from time to time). Once the contest is finalized, prizes are awarded and you can celebrate your success.
Let’s walk through the basics of Tennis DFS, from scoring mechanics to contest selection, and everything in between.
How to Score Points on DraftKings Tennis
In salary cap contests, participants will create a lineup by selecting players listed in the Player Pool. Each player will earn fantasy points for their performance in the single match listed. Each player listed has an assigned salary, and a valid lineup must not exceed the salary cap of $50,000.
Contest results will be determined by the total points accumulated by each individual lineup entry (scoring rules summarized below).
The most successful DFS players understand the importance of leveraging player stats to identify value picks, and knowing the scoring system is a big part of that. A tremendous amount of fantasy scoring in Tennis DFS is related to winning and losing, which creates a binary outcome. This may be overly simplified, but selecting 6 players that win their individual match can take you a long way. Beyond that, the level of dominance in winning that match will take you the rest of the way home.
A winning strategy in most DFS games involves identifying undervalued or under-utilized players that could outperform their price tag. As we’ll see in the following sections, this requires an understanding of the scoring system as well as key stats and analytics, projections, and probability distributions.
The Importance of Projections and Probability Distributions
Since we don’t know the future, we use data and sports information to estimate a player’s entire range of possibilities. We can use this calculation to make decisions on player price tags and determine who to select. When we refer to a projection in DFS, we are usually speaking about a player’s most likely fantasy points outcome for the event based on a predictive model.
Three key things to remember:
— All of the top DFS players use player projections to guide their decision making in one way or another.
— Projections add context to a player’s salary based on their most likely performance.
— Most DFS players use tools to help make decisions using projections, such as our LineupHQ optimizer.
Tennis DFS projections are relatively straightforward: Find the typical level of expected performance based on the percentage of expected wins/losses in matches, sets, and games. Within those games, identify the skills of Aces and Double fault prevention that aid in increasing scoring.
RotoGrinders provides projections, enabling you to understand a tennis player’s likelihood of success.
Game Theory and Ownership
The goal of DFS is to defeat our opponents. Estimating the players and strategy our opponents will deploy is key to formulating our own strategy.
The popularity of a player on DFS sites is measured by ownership percentage.
Ownership refers to the percentage of DFS players that select a particular player for their lineup. Comparing ownership projections (an estimate of their popularity) to a player’s probability of success is essential to gaining an edge in tournaments. Identifying low-ownership players that have a high probability of success can lead to significant advantages in scoring.
RotoGrinders provides ownership projections and probability of success metrics, enabling players to gain insights into player ownership trends and adjust their lineups accordingly.
Key Stats and Analytics
To build a successful Tennis DFS lineup, many top players incorporate key stats and analytics when making player selections. Since projections are variant, analytics provide a way to make informed wagers on who might fall at the upper range of their projections range in this specific event.
Here are some of the most important factors to consider:
Surface Preferences and Performance:. Different tennis players excel on different surfaces. Some players perform better on clay courts, while others thrive on hard courts or grass. Understanding a player’s preferences and track record on specific surfaces can give you an edge when building your lineup.
Recent Form and ELO Ratings:. Evaluating a player’s recent form and current ranking is crucial in Tennis DFS. Players who have been performing well recently or have a high ELO rating are more likely to deliver strong performances. It’s important to consider both short-term and long-term form when assessing player potential, and researching the trends can help sway your decisions.
Service Game Metrics: This includes Aces, First Serve Percentage, and Service Hold Percentage. A high number of aces indicates a powerful serve, which can be advantageous for winning service games and earning points in DFS. A high first serve percentage indicates a player’s ability to start the point on their terms, putting pressure on their opponent and potentially leading to more service game victories. The hold percentage metric represents the percentage of service games a player wins. A high service hold percentage suggests a strong ability to hold serve consistently and accumulate points.
Return Game Metrics: This includes Break Point Conversion, Return Points Won, Return Game Wins, and more. Break Point Conversion indicates a player’s ability to convert break point opportunities, which can be crucial for earning points in DFS. A high break point conversion percentage suggests proficiency in capitalizing on the opponent’s weaknesses during their service games. Return points won measures the percentage of return points a player wins, highlighting their ability to neutralize the opponent’s serve and potentially earn break points. The percentage of return games won reflects a player’s overall effectiveness in breaking the opponent’s serve and accumulating points in DFS.
Analyzing these metrics can help you identify players who excel in all areas and are likely to perform well in their matches. Consider the playing style of each player, their historical performance on specific surfaces, their recent form, their ELO ratings, and their service/return metrics to gain understanding of their strengths and weaknesses.
Using the LineupHQ Optimizer in Tennis DFS
The LineupHQ optimizer is a tool that can help you build lineups based on your criteria. These tools allow you to set specific parameters, such as budget, number of lineups, and player exposure to build a lineup that fits your needs.
It can be a lot to learn if you are new or aren’t a natural “numbers” person. Don’t worry- we’ve got tips for all types of users to get what they need from LUHQ.
Building one to three lineups tonight? Here is a beginner’s guide to building a quick and competitive team using picks and DFS data in LineupHQ:
1. Choose 2 to 3 of the expert identified top players if available on this slate. Alternatively, look at the “Opto%” and choose 3 Tennis Pros near the top.
2. Choose 1 to 2 lower priced players based on points per dollar. If looking to mix expert picks with projections data, use “Opto%” as a guide when selecting.
3. Choose 1 to 2 tennis pros with a lower than average ownership projection, but that still maintains a higher Opto% or has been recommended by an expert.
If this is your style, we certainly recommend LineupHQ Express available for both Apple and Android. It makes this process very simple.
Building more than 3 teams? We have an 8-point process to follow when making lineups in our optimizer:
1. Information – Prepare before you arrive.
2. Adjust projections settings – modify the projections with bumps and exposure requests to your favorite players.
3. Adjust correlation settings – not as big a deal in tennis, but make sure no two opponents are selected for the same lineup.
4. Adjust game theory / ownership settings – make sure you consider what your opponents will do.
5. Adjust lineup diversity settings – you may not want all of your lineups to look the same if you will make more than one.
6. Adjust roster construction settings – examples include minimum salary spent or any custom rules.
7. Build and review results in “My Lineups” – repeat steps as needed to form your fleet.
8. Export and enter your teams – Using the easy to find output features in LineupHQ.
While using an optimizer can be helpful, it’s important to remember that it’s only a tool and should be used in conjunction with your own research and analysis. Additionally, optimizing for unique lineups in GPPs can be a key strategy for differentiating yourself from other players and increasing your chances of success.
Contest Selection and Knowing Your Goals
When playing Tennis DFS, it is important to select the right type of contest and understand your goals. There are two main types of contests: Cash games and guaranteed prize pool (GPP) tournaments.
Cash games require stability and focus probable outcomes. These contests include head-to-heads, 50/50s, and double-ups. In these contests, a safe and consistent lineup that scores well but does not necessarily take the top spot is often the best strategy.
GPPs (Guaranteed Prize Pools), on the other hand, need to capture upper percentile outcomes to win. These contests offer larger payouts for the top finishers but can be more volatile due to the larger fields and top-heavy prize pools. To be successful in GPPs, it is important to identify high-upside players that have the potential to score big and differentiate your lineup from the rest of the field.
It is important to play within a bankroll limit and gamble responsibly. DFS is a form of gambling, and it is crucial to manage your bankroll effectively to avoid significant losses. It is also important to understand that DFS is a game of skill, and long-term success requires diligent research and strategy.
Examining payout structures and understanding top-heavy payouts increase volatility in results can also help guide contest selection. Larger top prizes often lead to more variance in outcomes and can require a more high-risk, high-reward approach to player selection.
In summary, playing and winning at Tennis DFS requires a comprehensive approach to player analysis, game theory, and contest selection. By understanding the scoring mechanics, analyzing player data, and utilizing tools such as an optimizer, you can build winning lineups and achieve success in DFS tournaments. Just remember to always play within your bankroll, gamble responsibly, and have fun!