NFL DFS Sims: How to Leverage NFL Simulations on DraftKings and FanDuel
We can trace NFL sims back before DFS to video games. What NFL DFS sims do is simulates tens of thousands of contests using lineups that the field is likely to have and measures the lineups against that field. RG NFL DFS sims measure the projected performance, simulated performance, ownership, and frequency of finishes of lineups to rate the overall value of the lineups.
In this space, we review what DFS sims are, look at how to use NFL DFS sims, and how some of our experts use sims.
NFL DFS Sims: What are They?
SimLabs is a holistic approach to evaluating lineups, as SimLabs FAQ describes. Meanwhile, an NFL lineup optimizer requires users to approximate if not manufacture correlation, diversity, and lineup evaluation. SimLabs does this work for the user.
We can adjust the simulation by field size and the diversity of the lineups in the output, while weighing the utility of simulations versus projections, as well as how the rating will value correlation, ceilings, and ownership.
“The goal of an optimizer is to solve a problem using the rules set by the user,” SimLabs creator Chris Gimino told me. “Sims create 50,000 lineups, and we sample down to rate lineups. We tell optimizers what conditions under which to operate. Sims tells us what it thinks is correct. In a simulated environment, we can automate the quantification of the value of lineups.”
The goal of NFL DFS sims is to do a lot of work automatically. That we can allow the sims to do work for us.
“Sims represent a method to create competitive lineups in a short time,” Gimino said.
How to Use NFL DFS Sims
Optimizers allow us to customize a universe in which we can try to score the most projected points. Sims create the universe in which our lineups will compete and give us the results of the simulated competition.
There are seemingly infinite ways to use this information.
One way is to simply convert the lineups into a CSV and paste them into a build. Another is to export the lineup to LineupHQ and value the lineups against other projection models to trim from there. Another is to approximate how much we ought to be playing lineup combinations, factoring in projections with correlation, leverage, and the size of the contest. Another is to use the lock functions to simulate for the best lineups under certain conditions and put those together.
The first method I mentioned is simple: click a button, export the lineups to a spreadsheet, and upload a CSV.
Exporting the lineups to LineupHQ is the beginning of introducing more human elements to the process. Even if we’re aggregating other projection models, we’re making the human choice of what models to incorporate and how to weigh them.
If we’re looking to analyze the results of the sims, we’re bringing in prior research and information to the sims output. Maybe the chalk stack is projected for 20% ownership, but SimLabs has the stacks in 45% of lineups, telling us that – despite the chalk – the team will still be underowned. Maybe a stack we like but don’t love is projected for 6% ownership, but SimLabs has the stack in 9% of lineups, telling us that the team we might be ho-hum about is getting underowned. Maybe our favorite stack is projected for a palatable 8%, but the Sims are only using it in 2.5% of lineups.
Well, rut roh.
This is a method of analysis that never requires leaving SimLabs itself and using it as a standalone tool for more than just creating lineups automatically.
Upon deciding on exposures, we can also make the best simulated lineups that contain certain lineup combinations.
Let’s say that we’re making 100 lineups for the Sunday Millionaire Maker and have decided that we’re gonna stack the 49ers in 15-20% of lineups, the Chiefs in 12-15%, the Bills in 10-12%, the Lions in 8-10%, and the Bears in 8%.
We can then lock in the Niners to build 20 lineups in our first build and save those lineups. Lock in the Chiefs to build 15 and save those, and so on. This will make us roughly 50-65 lineups. We can then exclude all of those stacks and run the sims to create the remaining lineups for our 100-build.
We can exclude all stacks except the four, five, or ten stacks we want to use and run sims from there to create our lineup set.
None of these methods are the way to use NFL DFS sims. These are just examples of ways we can use sims for NFL DFS.
How Our Experts Use NFL DFS Sims
David Kaplen: “I’ll be using the tool mainly for showdowns and small 2-3 game slates. I find SimLabs is very good at building lineups in those small slates that are well constructed and get me out of a biased mindset. Basically, I can build +EV lineups that feel uncomfortable that I wouldn’t have built on my own because I would be to obsessive-compulsive about leaving too much salary on the table, or I wouldn’t want to play the backup tight end, et cetera.
“Basically, I can build a lineup on a large main slate and get different without feeling uncomfortable. With enough games and players to choose from, you can find and use lower-owned guys that don’t make you feel like you’re wasting money. However, the smaller the slate is, the more of those types of decisions have to be made. Once we get down to showdowns or super small slates, your highest EV lineups are usually going to be different, and different is sometimes uncomfortable. Feeling uncomfortable is unique to everyone, and is like pain tolerance – everyone has different levels.”
Dave Potts: “I’ll probably click the buttons a bit just to see what it shows, but I don’t think I’ll actually use it [for lineup building]. I’ll look at the difference between lineups generated in LineupHQ vs. SimLabs just out of curiosity of how different they are.”
TJ Zwarych: “I use LineupHQ primarily over SimLabs because I like the control. I’m a hand-builder at heart but there’s no denying how helpful it is to have all the stats in one place like we have in LineupHQ when building. I’ll often use SimLabs to see how the field is building – optimal stacks compared to the field, and how the field is likely to build – and what lineups project well, but I prefer to use the optimizer to build my own lineups, so I can adjust projections and have control over my exposures.”
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