Colts vs. Broncos Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Colts vs. Broncos Odds
| Colts Odds | +3.5 |
| Broncos Odds | -3.5 |
| Over/Under | 42.5 |
| Date | Thu, Oct. 6 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | ESPN |
Week 5 of the NFL regular season will begin with a matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football. Entering play, both teams have underperformed relative to preseason expectations, with neither team possessing a winning record at kickoff this evening. Oddsmakers are expecting a tightly-contested affair between these underwhelming rosters, pricing Denver as a 3.5-point home favorite on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Indianapolis Colts
After narrowly avoiding an embarrassing loss in Week 1 to the Houston Texans, the Colts were kept off of the scoreboard entirely in a 24-0 defeat at the hands of the Jacksonville Jaguars. In Week 3, Indianapolis benefitted from some incredibly questionable play-calling, a muffed punt, and an abundance of other costly mistakes in a 20-17 victory. Then, the Colts lost again in Week 4, this time to the Tennessee Titans, in a game that was never close.
Through the first month of action, Matt Ryan ranks 26th in EPA/play among qualified signal callers. He has already thrown five interceptions, in addition to fumbling at an alarming rate. The running game will take a major hit this evening with Jonathan Taylor listed as out with an ankle injury. Even with Taylor on the field, Indianapolis ranked only 28th in rush EPA/play in four games. Lacking a capable quarterback and missing one of the best running backs in football is likely to make life extremely difficult tonight for this Colts offensive attack.
Defensively, Indianapolis will once again be without linebacker Shaquille Leonard on Thursday. Missing one of their most important defensive starters for the majority of the campaign to this point, the Colts rank 15th in EPA/play overall, but have managed to remain strong against the run in this span – allowing only 3.1 yards-per-carry, which ranks 2nd best in the NFL. Expect this group to be vulnerable through the air in this matchup against Denver, but the ability to shut-down the opposing running game should help this defense keep this contest competitive.
Denver Broncos
Russell Wilson has looked anything but dangerous since putting on a Denver uniform. He has not thrown for more than 237 passing yards in any of his last three games, ranks 21st in QBR and only 17th in EPA/play among qualified quarterbacks after four games. His struggles have only been further amplified by an anemic running attack and a porous offensive line – the latter of which has already surrendered 12 sacks this fall. Prized offensive lineman Billy Turner is listed as questionable as of this writing, and would go a long way towards helping this offensive attack if he is deemed healthy enough to take the field.
On the defensive side of the ball, the reviews have been far better for this group. After playing the Seattle Seahawks, Houston Texans, San Francisco 49ers, and Las Vegas Raiders – Denver ranks 7th in EPA/play defensively, and has been especially stout against opposing passing attacks, allowing only 5.3 yards-per-attempt through the air. Expect another strong showing from this group on Thursday against one of the worst offenses in the league.
Colts vs. Broncos – Picks & Predictions
Neither team possesses an offense that is capable of scaring anyone on the opposing sidelines in 2022. After a month of action, both of these teams rank in the bottom half of the league in quarterback EPA, and both units will be missing their lead running back for this contest. Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson have strong brand recognition, but neither signal caller has been remotely impressive to this point in the schedule. The under has a great chance to hit in this spot.
PICK: Under 42.5 (-110, DraftKings)
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