Information Overload: Week 2

Using highly valuable visuals, Aaron Hendrix looks closely at various advanced data sets and then comments on how we can best take advantage in daily fantasy football each week.

Week 2

Week 1 was a strange week in many ways. It was a good week to play the chalk as the likes of Alvin Kamara and James Conner did exactly what was expected of them and then some. When the scores to cash in GPPs were approaching 200 fantasy points, you know it was not a good week to take a contrarian approach. I know my bankroll took a hit as a result, but those are the chances I take playing that style.

Moving forward on Information Overload in the 2018 season I’m going to include the 2017 charts for at least the first few weeks of the NFL season until we have more data from 2018 that we can trust. Is the Saints defense really that bad or was that an anomaly? Teams do have bad weeks so I don’t want to put too much weight on one week of data. I’ll present the data for both seasons where I can for now and we’ll try and take a look at what is real and what is noise and make the best decisions possible from what we believe to be true.

Information Overload

How much information is too much information? Those familiar with my Information Overload article from the 2017 NFL Playoffs know that I believe there’s never enough. Over the course of the 2018 season, I’m going to present a boatload of data and projections (along with analysis) to help guide you through this weekend’s massive GPPs.

Here’s a quick summary of everything that is included in this article. You can click on the images to view them in more detail if you have problems viewing them. If you have ideas for things you’d like to see in future articles, be sure to leave them in the comments.

— Injury situations to monitor for the upcoming week
— Site pricing comparison
— Pace chart showing where teams rank in terms of pace in different game flow situations (utilizing a custom infograph)
DVOA matchups (utilizing a custom infograph)
— Offensive line versus defensive line matchups (utilizing a custom infograph)
— Defense against the pass based on pass direction and distance (utilizing a custom infograph)
— Defense against specific receiver types (utilizing a custom infograph)
— My analysis of how each section impacts players and matchups from a DFS perspective


Injury Situations to Monitor

Greg Olsen, Out
Delanie Walker, Out
Devonta Freeman, Questionable, Status uncertain
Vance McDonald, Questionable. Status uncertain
Marquise Goodwin, Questionable. Status uncertain
DeSean Jackson, Questionable Status uncertain
Aaron Rodgers, Questionable, Likely to play
Will Fuller, Questionable, Likely to play
Marlon Mack, Questionable, Likely to play
Leonard Fournette, Questionable, Likely to play
Rex Burkhead, Questionable, Likely to play
Ted Ginn, Questionable, Status uncertain
Marcus Mariota, Questionable, Likely to play

Two of the top TEs in the game are down – Olsen will return before the season is over, but that is not the case fo Walker. This opens up potential usage for young TEs Ian Thomas for the Panthers and Jonnu Smith for the Titans. The status uncertain players are the big question marks and none are bigger than Devonta Freeman as if he is ruled out (and it’s looking more likely he will be), then Tevin Coleman will become one of the more popular RB options of the week given his price and role in the Falcons offense. Marquise Goodwin and DeSean Jackson are also notable as their absence would lead to increased roles for the rest of the team’s pass catchers. Of all the likely to play with questionable designations, the one carrying the most weight is Aaron Rodgers. The Packers are a completely different offense without him. Needless to say, if he for some reason does not play, load up on the Vikings DST as Deshone Kizer is pretty, pretty bad.


Utilizing Site Pricing to Identify Values and Avoids

While players are generally going to be good plays regardless of their price, there is an argument to be made for leveraging pricing differences between the two major sites when determining your shares of players. Obviously, ownership will also go up (or down) where one site has a large discrepancy on a player, but you can counter that by going overweight or underweight relative to the field. The following chart lists the FanDuel and DraftKings pricing for the majority of skill position players and notes the difference in terms of positional rank for the two sites. I’ll analyze these briefly to help determine where some outliers are that we can take advantage of if playing both sites.

Google Sheet With Site Pricing and Differentials

QB

Matthew Stafford QB11 on FD, QB5 on DK.
Philip Rivers QB10 on FD, QB4 on DK

These two stand out at the QB position and if you have interest in either then it makes sense to increase your usage of them on FanDuel, where they are much cheaper relative to their prices on DK.

RB

As a whole there are a large group of RBs under-priced on DK in comparison to their prices on FD. Among RBs who have a rank difference of five or greater between the two sites are Kareem Hunt, LeSean McCoy, Lamar Miller, Dion Lewis, Isaiah Crowell, Rex Burkhead, Peyton Barber, Kerryon Johnson, and Royce Freeman. The common trend among these backs with a few exceptions is they disappointed in Week 1. While some are players we might want to still avoid (backs like Crowell, Barber, and Freeman are much better plays on FanDuel because of their lack of passing game role), there is also an opportunity to take advantage of the discounted prices they have on DraftKings – especially as pivots off of what will be a concentrated group of RBs that should receive the bulk of the ownership.

From the other side, Dalvin Cook, Jamaal Williams, and Tevin Coleman stand out for their FanDuel pricing. Coleman in particular at RB33 (he’s RB19 on DK) on FanDuel should be an almost insta-lock if Devonta Freeman is ruled out (especially in cash games there).

WR

WRs that we might want to attack more on DK when constructing rosters include Larry Fitzgerald (WR20 on DK, WR13 on FD), Demaryius Thomas (WR26 on DK, WR 15 on FD), and Phillip Dorsett (WR47 on DK, WR27 on FD).

Nelson Agholor is the top name that we’ll want to target more on FD as he is the WR35 there compared to a WR17 pricetag on DK. Pierre Garcon (especially if Marquise Goodwin is out) also stands out with a WR50 pricetag compared to his WR32 price on DK (to be honest, he’s in play on both sites if Goodwin is out but is a smash value on FD). Quincy Enunwa at WR58 on FD (compared to WR40 on DK) is another standout, but he too is in play on both sites given his promising role in the Jets offense in Week 1.

TE

The stands outs at TE are players who disappointed in their Week 1 outings in David Njoku and Ricky Seals-Jones. Those two are much better values on DK than FD. The two TEs I mentioned in the injury paragraph, Ian Thomas and Jonnu Smith, have been priced up on DK and as such are much better plays on FD.


Pace Ranks

Pace, or the speed at which teams play, is an often overlooked statistic when it comes to NFL DFS. Those that play NBA DFS are well versed in its importance – the more possessions an NBA team has, the more opportunities a player has to score fantasy points. While efficiency with those possessions, in both basketball and football, matter – ultimately fantasy production will always benefit from more times touching the ball.

The fastest paced teams in the NFL will average under 25 seconds per play compared to the slowest paced teams averaging close to 30 seconds per play. That 5-second play differential might not seem like much but over the course of a 60-minute football game it’ll add up to more than 10 additional plays for the faster-paced team. Knowing how fast NFL teams play should be one of the steps you take each week in your weekly research process. It’ll help us identify games where there might be more plays called then in an average week (and thus more opportunities for offensive players to touch the ball) and vice versa with a slower-paced game meaning fewer opportunities.

2017 Pace

2018 Week 1 Pace

Pace Up Games

Houston (-2) at Tennessee O/U 44.5
Detroit at San Francisco (-6) O/U 48.0

I love, love, love the Houston at Tennessee game as a sneaky shootout. The total is low, but the spread is close meaning Vegas thinks these two teams will be competitive throughout. I was curious how the coaching change for the Titans would impact their pace and thus far signs are they are going to play much faster this season. Last year, they ranked 26th in pace. After Week 1, they are ranked 8th. The Texans were 11th last season and are 3rd after Week 1. If you like betting over/under’s, I like the over in this one and there is potential for some DFS goodness.

Detroit was a relatively slow-paced team last season (21st) and there 1st place in pace this season is probably more a function of them getting owned by the Jets, but the 49ers were the fastest paced team in the league last season and the game script leads to a potential scenario where Detroit will be playing catch up and going fast again. This one isn’t as sneaky as the Texans-Titans game, but the potential for 5-10 additional plays (or more) is strong.

Pace Neutral Games

Kansas City at Pittsburgh (-4) O/U 53.0
Indianapolis at Washington (-5.5) O/U 47.5
Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5) at Buffalo O/U 43.0
Minnesota at Green Bay (NL) NL
Cleveland at New Orleans (-10) O/U 49.5
Arizona at LA Rams (-13.5) O/U 45.0
New England (-1) at Jacksonville O/U 45.5

Indianapolis played much faster, as expected, with Andrew Luck at the helm. That’ll probably remain the case but as road underdogs I can’t see them dictating the tempo here. The Bills continue to remain a top paced team (2nd this season after being 2nd last season), but they also continue being terrible which allows the other team to slow their pace down significantly. Arizona and the Rams was on the fringe of being a pace up game, but with the Rams substantial favorites, chances are things will slow down on the Rams side of the ball.

Pace Down Games

Carolina at Atlanta (-6) O/U 44.5
Miami at NY Jets (-3) O/U 43.5
Philadelphia at Tampa Bay (-3) O/U 44.0
Oakland at Denver (-6) O/U 46.0

Vegas has three of these games with totals under 45 – they probably have it right. They have the Oakland at Denver game a little higher, but I also like that one to go low as the Broncos were more conservative with their pace (22nd after Week 1) with Case Keenum at the helm.


2017 Defense by Pass Direction and Distance

Understanding the strengths and weaknesses of a defense, especially when it comes to pass coverage, can provide a significant edge as to how teams might attack an opposing defense (or should, but not all NFL teams are actually smart). In this section, we’re going to look at how defenses do against opposing pass offenses based on the pass direction (right, middle, and left) and distance (short and deep). All this data is taken from Football Outsiders’ Defensive Efficiency Ratings.

There are a few points to take from their chart. First, the data does not include passes where there is a sack or an intended receiver. The numbers are adjusted based on the opposing offenses and do include defensive pass interference. Short passes are defined as those that go up to 15 yards through the air, with everything else being a deep pass. If looking at the actual chart where the rankings are taken from, positive numbers equate to more scoring thus making negative numbers better from a defensive perspective.

2017 Pass Direction

2018 Week 1 Pass Direction

Situations to avoid

Green Bay Packers passing game against the Minnesota Vikings
Tampa Bay Buccaneers passing game against the Philadelphia Eagles
New England passing game against the Jacksonville Jaguars
Kansas City Chiefs passing game against the Pittsburgh Steelers
Indianapolis Colts passing game against the Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals passing game against the Los Angeles Rams

As much as it pains me as a Packers fan, I have to admit that even with Aaron Rodgers at the helm I don’t want to target the Vikings pass defense. Randall Cobb is probably the lone exception as he easily has the best matchup of their receiving corps. We’ll see how many people chase the monster game of Ryan Fitzpatrick with the logic “well if he could do it against the Saints, he can do it against the Eagles.” I didn’t play Fitz last week and I’m not going to start this week.

I reserve the right to play him next week though if he goes off again.

The Colts and Cardinals are pretty clear avoids for me in tough matchups. It’s always hard to fade Tom Brady and the Patriots, but if there is a week or matchup to do it in, it’s this week against the Jaguars. Especially with so much uncertainty in the Patriots passing game and trying to figure out who to target outside of Rob Gronkowski.

The one difficult one on this list is Kansas City. Tyreek Hill still has a positive matchup, but the Steelers have been a legitimately good team against the pass of late. I’m not saying to full fade a team in the highest total of the week, but I’d be wary of going overboard on Chiefs players (including Tyreek).

Situations to attack

Detroit Lions passing game against the San Francisco 49ers
Philadelphia Eagles passing game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Denver Broncos passing game against the Oakland Raiders
Pittsburgh Steelers passing game against the Kansas City Chiefs
Washington Redskins passing game against the Indianapolis Colts
Houston Texans passing game against the Tennessee Titans

Jumping on the Lions train after a let down week against the Jets seems ideal against a 49ers team that struggles against defending the pass. Golden Tate has the best matchup for them. The Eagles, especially Nelson Agholor, should benefit from a matchup against a bad Bucs secondary. Everyone will probably be on Emmanuel Sanders this week, but it’s Demaryius Thomas who has the best matchup for the Broncos.

Nothing shocking here but Antonio Brown has the best matchup for the Steelers against one of the worst pass defenses in the league playing at home. You should probably play him. Jamison Crowder has the best matchup for the Redskins against a bad Colts defense and now is the perfect time to get some DeAndre Hopkins exposure after a bad Week 1 game.

Defense vs Type of Receiver

The good folks at Football Outsiders’ have expanded on their outstanding metrics and provided us with a breakdown of how teams do at covering specific receivers. This can help us identify matchups we want to avoid and those we want to attack.

2017 Defense vs. Type of Receiver

2018 Week 1 Defense vs. Type of Receiver

Matchups to Avoid

T.Y. Hilton vs WAS (#15 vs #1 WR, #5 in 2017)

Ian Thomas vs ATL (#3 vs TE, #14 in 2017)

Quincy Enunwa vs MIA (#2 vs #2 WR, #11 in 2017)

Danny Amendola vs NYJ (#7 vs Other WR, #2 in 2017)

Chris Godwin vs PHI (#6 vs #2 WR, #1 in 2017)

Matt Breida vs DET (#2 vs RB, #8 in 2017)

Keelan Cole vs Stephon Gilmore

Sammy Watkins vs Artie Burns

Amari Cooper vs Bradley Roby

Josh Gordon vs Marshon Lattimore Editors Note: Josh Gordon has been ruled out for Week 2

Kyle Rudolph vs Josh Jackson

There are a few Week 1 darlings on this list in Enunwa and Godwin that have tougher than you might think matchups this week. That said, I still don’t mind either given their price tags and roles in their offense – I’m just not going to go overboard on my exposure to them. Most of these are fairly obvious avoids – the one I’m most likely to ignore is Enunwa as I think he is one of the safest plays on the board this week.

Matchups to Exploit

Julio Jones against Donte Jackson

Keenan Allen against Taron Johnson

Michael Thomas against Terrance Mitchell

Jordan Reed vs IND (#31 vs TE, #23 in 2017)

Jamison Crowder vs IND (#17 vs Other WR, #31 in 2017)

#2 WR for Titans vs HOU (#30 vs #2 WR, #30 in 2017)

Jonnu Smith vs HOU (#30 vs TE, #27 in 2017)

Lamar Miller vs TEN (#17 vs RB, #32 in 2017)

Stefon Diggs vs GB (#16 vs #1 WR, #32 in 2017)

Dalvin Cook vs GB (#20 vs RB, #29 in 2017)

Zach Ertz vs TB (#32 vs TE, #22 in 2017)

Alvin Kamara vs CLE (#28 vs RB, #30 in 2017)

Todd Gurley vs ARI (#31 vs RB, #17 in 2017)

George Kittle vs DET (#25 vs TE, #26 in 2017)

Devontae Booker / Phillip Lindsay vs OAK (#29 vs RB, #27 in 2017)

Jared Cook vs DEN (#29 vs TE, #31 in 2017)

There is a lot to like this week starting at the top with three of the best in great spots (and that’s with me not even listing the obvious play that is Antonio Brown). Then you add in some of the top RBs in great spots like Kamara, Gurley, and Dalvin Cook and it’s going to be difficult to decide where to pay up. Jared Cook should be fairly popular after his massive MNF game and the fact that his price did not change. Facing a Broncos defense susceptible to the TE, he’ll likely be a mainstay in cash lineups along with George Kittle. You can be contrarian in GPPs though and pay up for the likes of Ertz and Jordan Reed (both listed here) or Gronk. If we get news that Rishard Matthews is fully healthy, he makes for a great sneaky option against the Texans.

No one will want to play Lamar Miller. He’s not “sexy”. He is, however, in a great spot this week. So is Stefon Diggs who will likely go a bit overlooked with all the other big names having plus matchups.


2017 Offense and Defense DVOA

One of the simplest ways to identify matchups is to simply look at how well teams matchup against one another. Utilizing DVOA data can help you do precisely that.

Offense

2017 Offense DVOA

2018 Week 1 Offense DVOA

Defense

2017 Defense DVOA

2018 Week 1 Defense DVOA

Using last season’s DVOA is tough as teams often have changed personnel and coaching philosophies. However, it is a good starting point to try and identify mismatches in situations where you know the information has remained static and not changed. When looking at the matchup breakdowns below, take into consideration what a team has done before thinking a matchup is great or vice versa. I did try and factor in Football Outsiders DAVE ranking which tries and anticipates a teams DVOA for the season.

Overall Supreme Matchups

Los Angeles Rams against Arizona
Washington against Indianapolis

Overall Plus Matchups

New Orleans against Cleveland
New York Jets against Miami
Minnesota against Green Bay
Carolina against Atlanta
Denver against Oakland
Los Angeles Chargers against Buffalo

Overall Neutral Matchups

Tennessee against Houston
Philadelphia against Tampa Bay
Miami against New York Jets
Houston against Tennessee
Detroit against San Francisco
Pittsburgh against Kansas City
Jacksonville against New England
San Francisco against Detroit
Atlanta against Carolina
Green Bay against Minnesota
New England against Jacksonville

Overall Negative Matchups

Oakland against Denver
Arizona against Los Angeles Rams
Cleveland against New Orleans
Indianapolis against Washington

Overall Terrible Matchups

Kansas City against Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay against Philadelphia
Buffalo against Los Angeles Chargers

Top Positive Run Matchups

Pittsburgh against Kansas City
Philadelphia against Tampa Bay
Carolina against Atlanta
Los Angeles Chargers against Buffalo

I like all four backs that should receive the biggest workloads in these games. James Conner, Jay Ajayi, Christian McCaffrey, and Melvin Gordon are all excellent plays.

Top Negative Run Matchups

Tampa Bay against Philadelphia
Miami against New York Jets
Detroit against San Francisco 49ers
New York Jets against Miami

I don’t think we were going to be targeting the likes of Peyton Barber, Kenyan Drake, Kerryon Johnson, or Isaiah Crowell this weekend any way. This only adds to the reason not to.

Top Positive Pass Matchups

Los Angeles Chargers against Buffalo
Philadelphia against Tampa Bay
Pittsburgh against Kansas City
Washington against Indianapolis
Minnesota against Green Bay

These were all matchups discussed earlier in this article – the one I’d be most hesitant to use is the Vikings on the road against an improved Packers secondary (but again that improvement was against the Bears, so who knows…)

Top Negative Pass Matchups

Arizona against Los Angeles Rams
Indianapolis against Washington
Green Bay against Minnesota
Atlanta against Carolina
Buffalo against Los Angeles Chargers
Cleveland against New Orleans

The one team I might target out of this list is the Falcons against the Panthers as Julio Jones should be able to feast against the Panthers.


2017 Offensive Line vs Defensive Line Matchups

It’s easy to just plug in an elite RB based on name value alone. “It’s Le’Veon Bell… what could possibly go wrong” is not an uncommon thought process for many DFS players. The same can often be said for cheaper running backs getting a big workload. While many DFS players will look at how opposing defenses rank against the run, they make a mistake by solely looking at that metric. We can take our research one step further by looking at how offensive and defensive lines perform in different situations including short-yardage and second level/open-field plays. We can compare the relative strength of one unit against another to find mismatches that will either have us targeting a run game more heavily than we might have previously or avoiding one we might have had our eyes on but the metrics give us cause for concern. We can even use this data to help us identify DST’s that will have a higher likelihood of putting pressure on the QB.

Offensive Line

2017 Offensive Line

2018 Week 1 OL Pass Blocking

Defensive Line

2017 Defensive Line

2018 Week 1 DL Pass Rush

Biggest OL vs DL Advantage (Overall)

New England vs Jacksonville
Pittsburgh vs Kansas City
Jacksonville vs New England
San Francisco vs Detroit
Indianapolis vs Washington

Biggest DL vs OL Advantage (Overall)

Miami vs New York Jets
New York Jets vs Miami
San Francisco vs Detroit
Houston vs Tennessee
Philadelphia vs Tampa Bay

These are overall line DVOA’s to help us determine which unit has the edge. While the overall can help you get a general feel for which side has an advantage, I like to look closer at the Inside Run, Long Run, and Sack metrics to get a more narrowed down basis for analysis.

Biggest Inside Run Advantage

Indianapolis vs Washington
Kansas City vs Pittsburgh
Carolina vs Atlanta
Denver vs Oakland
Arizona vs Los Angeles Rams

These matchup advantages bode well for inside runners – the best of this group would be Royce Freeman and David Johnson. Others who could benefit include Marlon Mack (assuming he plays), C.J. Anderson (assuming he continues to get some work on inside run packages), and Kareem Hunt (I guess we can try going back to the well after a disappointing Week 1).

Biggest Inside Run Disadvantage

New York Jets vs Miami
Oakland vs Denver
Detroit vs San Francisco
Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona
Atlanta vs Carolina

Marshawn Lynch becomes an avoid against the Broncos run defense. So does Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell against the Dolphings. We weren’t going to target the Lions run game anyway and this isn’t enough to get me off of plus matchups for Todd Gurley or Tevin Coleman (assuming Devonta Freeman is out).

Biggest Long Run Advantage

Kansas City vs Pittsburgh
Philadelphia vs Tampa Bay
Buffalo vs Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers vs Buffalo
Atlanta vs Carolina

Kareem Hunt sits pretty in this category once again. He’ll certainly be even lower-owned this week and I’ll slide on into those dangerous waters and give him another shot. LeSean McCoy is intriguing but nothing more than a dart throw. Jay Ajayi, Melvin Gordon, and Tevin Coleman are all backs I like this week so being listed here is promising.

Biggest Long Run Disadvantage

Houston vs Tennessee
Green Bay vs Minnesota
Tampa Bay vs Philadelphia
Carolina vs Atlanta
Detroit vs San Francisco

Atlanta could be worse against the run with the loss of two key defenders so I still don’t mind Christian McCaffrey against them, especially with their vulnerability to giving up receptions out of the backfield. The rest of the matchups here don’t really change anything as Jamaal Williams, Detroit RBs, or Peyton Barber weren’t viable options and Lamar Miller has never been seen as a long run kind of back.

Biggest Sack Disadvantage (in terms of not giving one up)

Miami vs New York Jets
Los Angeles Chargers vs Buffalo
Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona
Philadelphia vs Tampa Bay
New York Jets vs Miami

While the Jets-Dolphins game might be low-scoring, chances are there won’t be many sacks/turnovers in the game. The other three defenses (Buffalo, Arizona, and Tampa Bay) were already fades so this just verifies that.

Biggest Sack Advantage (in terms of giving one up)

Indianapolis vs Washington
Arizona vs Los Angeles Rams
Buffalo vs Los Angeles Chargers
Green Bay vs Minnesota
Atlanta vs Carolina

The Rams and Chargers were already top targets and this only makes them more attractive. Washington and Minnesota are sneaky as most aren’t going to think of rostering them. Both defenses should be able to apply pressure though and we know that always leads to mistakes on the offense. Rodgers is pretty good at limiting mistakes, however, so that’s a bit of a risk. One probably worth making in a Dalvin Cook lineup or two though.


Meet the Experts Content Posting Times

About the Author

  • Aaron Hendrix (thehazyone)

  • Aaron Hendrix is a former professional poker player who made the transition from season long fantasy sports to DFS in October of 2014. He used to cover poker tournaments for a living until stepping into his current role at RotoGrinders. He can be found on Twitter at @aaronhendrix

Comments

  • Mcnasty52

    • 889

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2018 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    Appreciate the article!! Lots of information to break down!

  • sochoice

    • 2017 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2017 FanDuel WFFC Champion

    Great article! I so wish the Packers had a backup QB who was pretty, pretty good.

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    @sochoice said...

    Great article! I so wish the Packers had a backup QB who was pretty, pretty good.

    You and me both!

  • jjaayyzz

    Hey Aaron, Great article ! I noticed you had this statistic in the matchups to exploit section:

    #2 WR for Titans vs HOU (#30 vs #2 WR, #30 in 2017)

    The #2 WR for the Titans on the depth chart is Corey Davis. With the injury to Delanie Walker and the encouraging targets he got week 1, what are your thoughts on him as a cash game play on FD? My rosters are ending up with $6,300 left at the last WR spot, is there anyone at that price you would play over him ?

    Anyways, appreciate what you do ! Looking forward to hearing your thoughts.

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    @jjaayyzz said...

    Hey Aaron, Great article ! I noticed you had this statistic in the matchups to exploit section:

    #2 WR for Titans vs HOU (#30 vs #2 WR, #30 in 2017)

    The #2 WR for the Titans on the depth chart is Corey Davis. With the injury to Delanie Walker and the encouraging targets he got week 1, what are your thoughts on him as a cash game play on FD? My rosters are ending up with $6,300 left at the last WR spot, is there anyone at that price you would play over him ?

    Anyways, appreciate what you do ! Looking forward to hearing your thoughts.

    This is where it gets a little tricky trying to figure out what the charts mean – Football Outsiders says the following…

    Note that our decision of which receiver is ‘number one’ and which receiver is ‘number two’ is somewhat subjective.

    In this case, I’d make the argument that while Davis is listed as the #2 on the Depth Chart, he’s likely seen by analysts and sites like FO as the #1. Davis is definitely a fine play given his likely volume, but that matchup advantage I don’t think applies to him here.

  • LuckySlevin

    This is the best article on Rotogrinders by a mile. I was disappointed when RG removed the price diff tool so I was very happy to see your spreadsheet added here. Thank you!!

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