Information Overload: Week 2

Using highly valuable visuals, Aaron Hendrix looks closely at various advanced data sets and then comments on how we can best take advantage in daily fantasy football each week.

Week 2

Week 1 was a strange week in many ways. It was a good week to play the chalk as the likes of Alvin Kamara and James Conner did exactly what was expected of them and then some. When the scores to cash in GPPs were approaching 200 fantasy points, you know it was not a good week to take a contrarian approach. I know my bankroll took a hit as a result, but those are the chances I take playing that style.

Moving forward on Information Overload in the 2018 season I’m going to include the 2017 charts for at least the first few weeks of the NFL season until we have more data from 2018 that we can trust. Is the Saints defense really that bad or was that an anomaly? Teams do have bad weeks so I don’t want to put too much weight on one week of data. I’ll present the data for both seasons where I can for now and we’ll try and take a look at what is real and what is noise and make the best decisions possible from what we believe to be true.

Information Overload

How much information is too much information? Those familiar with my Information Overload article from the 2017 NFL Playoffs know that I believe there’s never enough. Over the course of the 2018 season, I’m going to present a boatload of data and projections (along with analysis) to help guide you through this weekend’s massive GPPs.

Here’s a quick summary of everything that is included in this article. You can click on the images to view them in more detail if you have problems viewing them. If you have ideas for things you’d like to see in future articles, be sure to leave them in the comments.

— Injury situations to monitor for the upcoming week
— Site pricing comparison
— Pace chart showing where teams rank in terms of pace in different game flow situations (utilizing a custom infograph)
DVOA matchups (utilizing a custom infograph)
— Offensive line versus defensive line matchups (utilizing a custom infograph)
— Defense against the pass based on pass direction and distance (utilizing a custom infograph)
— Defense against specific receiver types (utilizing a custom infograph)
— My analysis of how each section impacts players and matchups from a DFS perspective

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About the Author

  • Aaron Hendrix (thehazyone)

  • Aaron Hendrix is a former professional poker player who made the transition from season long fantasy sports to DFS in October of 2014. He used to cover poker tournaments for a living until stepping into his current role at RotoGrinders. He can be found on Twitter at @aaronhendrix

Comments

  • Mcnasty52

    • 2018 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    Appreciate the article!! Lots of information to break down!

  • sochoice

    • 302

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2017 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2017 FanDuel WFFC Champion

    Great article! I so wish the Packers had a backup QB who was pretty, pretty good.

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    @sochoice said...

    Great article! I so wish the Packers had a backup QB who was pretty, pretty good.

    You and me both!

  • jjaayyzz

    Hey Aaron, Great article ! I noticed you had this statistic in the matchups to exploit section:

    #2 WR for Titans vs HOU (#30 vs #2 WR, #30 in 2017)

    The #2 WR for the Titans on the depth chart is Corey Davis. With the injury to Delanie Walker and the encouraging targets he got week 1, what are your thoughts on him as a cash game play on FD? My rosters are ending up with $6,300 left at the last WR spot, is there anyone at that price you would play over him ?

    Anyways, appreciate what you do ! Looking forward to hearing your thoughts.

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    @jjaayyzz said...

    Hey Aaron, Great article ! I noticed you had this statistic in the matchups to exploit section:

    #2 WR for Titans vs HOU (#30 vs #2 WR, #30 in 2017)

    The #2 WR for the Titans on the depth chart is Corey Davis. With the injury to Delanie Walker and the encouraging targets he got week 1, what are your thoughts on him as a cash game play on FD? My rosters are ending up with $6,300 left at the last WR spot, is there anyone at that price you would play over him ?

    Anyways, appreciate what you do ! Looking forward to hearing your thoughts.

    This is where it gets a little tricky trying to figure out what the charts mean – Football Outsiders says the following…

    Note that our decision of which receiver is ‘number one’ and which receiver is ‘number two’ is somewhat subjective.

    In this case, I’d make the argument that while Davis is listed as the #2 on the Depth Chart, he’s likely seen by analysts and sites like FO as the #1. Davis is definitely a fine play given his likely volume, but that matchup advantage I don’t think applies to him here.

  • LuckySlevin

    This is the best article on Rotogrinders by a mile. I was disappointed when RG removed the price diff tool so I was very happy to see your spreadsheet added here. Thank you!!

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