Initial Thoughts: Week 5 Value Plays
With Monday Night Football being reserved for the Colts in back-to-back weeks, it’s safe to turn our fantasy radar towards the upcoming week. While sites do update their players’ salaries weekly based on performance, it’s still possible to predict value plays before they emerge…some sites easier than other. FSL uses season-long averages to determine player pricing, making spotting an up-and-coming player for value a simple task for the seasoned veteran. You have sites like FanDuel, whose salaries are generally delayed a couple weeks making spotting value a combination of art and science each week. Then you have your sites like DraftStreet where the player pricing models update very quickly, making spotting value a bit trickier, but still have some extreme outliers (see Damian Williams in Week 4). This week brought not only its usual share of injuries to stars with Andre Johnson and Big Ben going down, among others, but also presented opportunities for players like Steven Ridley and Ryan Torain to work their way up the depth chart. Looking forward to Week 5, here are some notable value plays to keep an eye on, along with their Week 4 FanDuel price tags:
Week 5 Potential Value Plays
Stevan Ridley – $4,700 – We all felt the pressure coming behind the law firm in New England, and it came in Week 4. Danny Woodhead is fully emerged in the Kevin Faulk role now, and Stevan Ridley is simply more impressive than Ben-Jarvis Green-Ellis. It’s been tough to trust any Patriots RB for half a decade, but for the price tag, Ridley’s practice reps are worth monitoring.
Jacoby Jones ($5,400) and Owen Daniels ($5,600) – Week 4 had one of those moments that made anyone who participates in fantasy football cringe, whether you owned the superstar or not. When Andre Johnson collapsed untouched while running after a catch, many waited in stunned silence to see if their fantasy season was over. The good news: Johnson doesn’t appear to have damaged his knee. The bad news: I’m not a doctor, but I’ll be shocked if Andre Johnson is back in the next several games after seeing the way he fell down. We’ve been here before, and no one can ever fill Andre’s void, but Jacoby Jones and Owen Daniels stand to gain the most upside here. Kevin Walter ($5,000) can be thrown into the discussion, but I’d expect more big days from Owen Daniels if I had to choose one.
Eric Decker ($5,600) – Eric Decker impressed yet again this week, reeling in two touchdowns. Even if Eddie Royal returns, Decker has proven himself as a reliable receiving option with upside. His price tag is still too cheap on every site, on pace for 80 catches, 1,080 yards and 16 touchdowns.
Denarius Moore ($5,800) – His production declined for the second consecutive week, but Denarius still produced a TD on the afternoon, and his upside is still massive. I’d look for his production to go back up in Week 5 vs. HOU, and not continue to decline.
Isaac Redman ($4,700) – Rashard Mendenhall left the game and did not return in Week 4, and I’d be a bit surprised to see him return by Week 5, and if he doesn’t, Redman will make for an excellent value play.
Damian Williams ($4,500) – He’s a risky play, but in just the two-thousands on DraftStreet and the min-price on FanDuel, he can make for a solid value play in the absence of Kenny Britt.
Sidney Rice ($6,900) – I’m not quite sold on him being a WR1 option, as his first two weeks’ numbers indicate, but you also can’t ignore them. His 2009 play must still be influencing his FanDuel pricetag, but he can be found at value on most of the sites.
Arian Foster ($11,190 – DraftStreet) – I debated including Foster in this column or not, but I just couldn’t help myself. On DraftStreet he was just over $11k this week. That could change, but this may be your last chance to pounce on last season’s #1 back at a discount. After Ben Tate went down with an injury, Arian Foster immediately returned to the fantasy beast of 2010. Getting 30 carries and totaling 155 yards and a TD, his ceiling is much higher than this week’s price tag.
Week 6 Watch: Ryan Torain ($5,800) – Mike Shannahan moves quickly; Try and keep up! Last week you had a hint of Roy Helu emerging on your radar, then Shanny makes one quip about Hightower’s lack of lateral movement in a post-game conference and Torain breaks out as the featured back…wait, huh? In hindsight that comment made by the Redskins’ head coach should have been all you needed to stay clear of Hightower this week, and Mike Shannahan is the reason many of us stayed clear of Hightower in season long drafts. He’ll continue to play the hot hand, but after this week, Torain looks like the feature back in Washington. The Redskins have a bye this week though, so knowing Mike Shannahan, we’ll have close to zero extra information after the by week.
Cameron MacMillan
RotoGrinders.com Site Manager