Italy vs. Cuba: World Baseball Classic Odds, Picks and Predictions
Italy vs. Cuba Odds
| Italy ML | +110 |
| Cuba ML | -140 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Date | Thu, Mar. 9 |
| Time | 6:00 a.m. |
| TV | Tubi |
On Thursday, Italy will make their 2023 World Baseball Classic debut against Cuba when these two teams meet at the Taichung Intercontinental Baseball Stadium at 6:00 a.m. EST on Tubi.
Italy has finished as high as seventh in this tournament, but has three finishes of 10th or worse in the Classic. Cuba lost their first pool play game to Netherlands by a final score of 4-2.
Ahead of first pitch, oddsmakers have priced Cuba as -140 favorites on the moneyline in this matchup, with over/under on the total set at 8.5 runs.
Italy
Matt Harvey gets the ball in opener
In 2022, Matt Harvey pitched at three different levels of the minor leagues – posting a 3.71 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 21.6% strikeout percentage, and an 8.2% walk-rate. Harvey, formerly a star with the New York Mets, has remained a competitive pitcher in recent seasons, despite the fact that he has dealt with a number of serious injuries during the latter portion of his career.
However, it is worth noting that Harvey has fared far better against weaker competition across the last few seasons. In brief stints in the major leagues since 2019, he owns a 6.83 ERA, 5.41 FIP, 15.8% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk-rate, and a 1.61 WHIP in 199.0 innings of work.
What to expect from the bats
The Italian offense is headlined by Kansas City Royals slugger Vinnie “Italian Nightmare” Pasquantino, who had 10 home runs in only 72 games after getting called up to the big leagues last summer. Throughout his professional development, he has also boasted elite contact numbers and a patient eye at the plate – making him one of the most dangerous young hitters in the world.
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Cuba
Offensive looking to bounce back
In their tournament opener, Cuba had only two runs on three hits against Netherlands in a losing effort. Yoan Moncada, Luis Robert Jr., and Yoenis Cespedes combined to go 1-for-9 at the plate as the team’s two-through-four hitters in the lineup.
Overall, Cuba’s lineup was unable to get a timely base knock, despite drawing six walks in the contest. The team finished the game 0-for-7 with runners-in-scoring-position.
Elias taking the ball
Roenis Elias will take the ball for Cuba to begin their second pool play game. In 7.2 innings of work with the Seattle Mariners last season, Elias had a 3.52 ERA, 2.68 xERA, 4.42 FIP, 18.2% strikeout percentage, 9.1% walk-rate, and a 1.30 WHIP.
Expect the lefty to exhibit strong control of the strike zone in the early going before handing the ball over to the bullpen.
Italy vs. Cuba – Picks & Predictions
As of this writing – in the history of the World Baseball Classic, eight games have been played at Taichung Intercontinental Baseball Stadium, with six of those contests ending with six total runs or fewer on the scoreboard.
Matt Harvey is no longer a feared MLB ace, but he remains a high IQ hurler, who is likely capable of keeping a weak Cuba offense limited during the early portion of this game. Elias and the Cuba bullpen are more than capable of limiting damage from opposing bats as well, evident by the fact that they allowed only four runs in their first tournament game.
Take the under in this spot.
PICK: Under 8.5 (-110, Bet365)
Image Credit: Getty Images