Jaguars vs. Chiefs Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Jaguars vs. Chiefs Odds
| Jaguars Odds | +9.5 |
| Chiefs Odds | -9.5 |
| Over/Under | 53 |
| Date | Sat, Jan. 21 |
| Time | 4:30 p.m. |
| TV | NBC |
The NFL divisional round will begin on Saturday afternoon at Arrowhead Stadium with a matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Kansas City Chiefs on NBC. Last weekend, Jacksonville saved their season, overcoming a 27-0 first-half deficit against the Los Angeles Chargers in the wild-card round to advance. Kansas City is coming off of a bye after earning the 1-seed in the AFC during the regular season. Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have the Chiefs priced as 9.5-point home favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Jacksonville Jaguars
History made, unlikely to be repeated
In the wild-card round, the Jaguars became the first team in NFL history to win a postseason game when committing five or more turnovers than their opponent. Trevor Lawrence threw four interceptions on Jacksonville’s first six offensive drives, resulting in the team’s win probability dropping to 2% shortly before half-time, according to ESPN.
It is unlikely that Lawrence’s struggles will repeat themselves on Saturday against the Chiefs. Across his final nine regular season games, Lawrence threw only two interceptions. After gaining his composure against Los Angeles last weekend, Lawrence threw zero interceptions in the second-half, playing nearly perfect football to bring his team back from a seemingly insurmountable deficit.
Defense played their part in the win
Overlooked in Jacksonville’s historic wild-card round victory is that the defense played extremely well, despite allowing 30 points. After falling behind 24-0, the Jaguars allowed only six points on Los Angeles’ final seven drives. Playing against an injury-depleted Chargers’ offensive line, Jacksonville generated 18 quarterback pressures, 11 hurries, and four sacks.
Across their final five regular season games, Jacksonville forced 11 turnovers, led the league in pressures, and had the ninth-best defensive DVOA of any team in the league in that span, per Vic Tafur.
Key injury news
Edge defender Dawuane Smoot is on injured reserve and has not played since Week 16. During the regular season, Smoot finished second on the team with five sacks in 15 games played. Per Pro Football Focus, he graded 29th out of 115 players at his position as a pass-rusher in 2022.
Kansas City Chiefs
Mahomes seeking fifth consecutive trip to conference championship
In Week 10 against Jacksonville, Patrick Mahomes completed 26 of 35 pass attempts for 331 passing yards and four touchdowns. He was pressured on only 32.5% of his dropbacks, per Pro Football Focus.
In 17 games this year, Mahomes had a 29-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio from a clean pocket, and a 12-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio when under pressure. Facing a Jacksonville defense that has revamped their pass-rush since the first meeting between these teams, protection will be a key area to watch for the Chiefs offense.
McDuffie making a difference
Rookie cornerback Trent McDuffie changed the trajectory of this defense after he returned to the field in Week 9. From Week 2 to Week 8, with McDuffie on the sidelines, Kansas City’s defense ranked 22nd in EOPA overall and 24th in dropback EPA. From Week 9 to Week 18, with McDuffie on the field, the Chiefs improved to 10th in overall EPA and 9th in dropback EPA. In their final 10 regular season contests, this unit held their opponent to 17 points or less five times.
Key to defending Lawrence
Getting pressure on Lawrence will undoubtedly be a top priority for this defense on Saturday. Including the wild-card round, Lawrence has a 25-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio from a clean pocket, but only a 4-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio when under pressure. Among 19 qualified quarterbacks, Lawrence ranks 18th in turnover-worthy-play percentage when under duress this season. Kansas City finished the regular season ranked fifth in sacks per pass attempt, fifth in pressure percentage, and seventh in hurry percentage.
Key injury news
Wide receiver Mecole Hardman is the only notable absence for Kansas City on Saturday. In eight games this season, he caught 25 passes for 297 receiving yards and four touchdowns.
Jaguars vs. Chiefs – Picks & Predictions
Both Trevor Lawrence and Patrick Mahomes struggled this season, relative to their peers, when under pressure. Only Mac Jones and Matt Ryan have more interceptions when under pressure in 2022 than Lawrence and Mahomes, each of whom has seven. Expect both defenses to prioritize making the opposing quarterback uncomfortable early in the game, which is likely to result in stalled drives and at least a couple of turnovers. Take the first-half under in this spot, and avoid the possibility of two elite signal callers finding their groove in the latter portion of the contest.
PICK: Under 26.5 – First Half (+100, DraftKings)
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