Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Jaguars vs. Bills Odds
| Jaguars Odds | +5 |
| Bills Odds | -5 |
| Over/Under | 45.5 |
| Date | Monday, September 23rd |
| Time | 7:30 PM ET |
| TV | ESPN |
NFL fans will be treated to a rare Monday Night Football doubleheader in Week 3 beginning at 7:30 p.m. ET with a matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Buffalo Bills on ESPN.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Bills as 5-point favorites on the spread. The total is set at 45.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars are 0-2 to begin the year – a dangerous spot for an NFL team to be. According to Brandon Anderson of the Action Network, only 2 of 32 teams (6.3%) that started a season 0-2 have made the postseason since the league expanded to 7 playoff teams in each conference in 2020. This is as close to a must-win situation as there is for a team in September. Meanwhile, Josh Allen and the Bills are enjoying a 2-0 start and can maintain sole possession of first place in the AFC East with a victory on Monday evening.
Jacksonville Jaguars Preview
Lawrence, Jaguars airing it out
Through two games, Trevor Lawrence has the 2nd highest aDOT in the entire NFL, trailing only Anthony Richardson. Lawrence has excelled on deep passes, completing 7 of 11 attempts 20+ yards downfield for a league leading 212 passing yards on such throws. It’s been the rest of Jacksonville’s offense that has struggled to this point.
Lawrence ranked 9th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play in Week 1, but he ranked only 22nd in Week 2 against a more formidable Cleveland defense. Overall, this passing attack has struggled on a down-to-down basis, ranking only 13th in success rate in their season opener and 26th in success rate this past weekend.
Their offensive line has struggled mightily in pass protection, ranking 30th in adjusted sack% so far in 2024. They have also allowed their running backs to get stuffed at the line of scrimmage at the 10th highest rate in the league so far this year. Buffalo’s pass rush hasn’t been great, but their defensive line ranks 3rd best in adjusted line yards and could make it difficult for the Jaguars to find much success on the ground in this matchup.
Jacksonville defense still trying to find answers
The Jaguars’ defense has been relatively good on a down-to-down basis to begin 2024, ranking 10th in success rate through two games. It’s been their overly aggressive nature that has gotten them into trouble early in September.
In Week 1, Jacksonville allowed an 80 yard touchdown to Tyreek Hill, a 63 yard completion to Jaylen Waddle, and a 39 yard reception to DeVon Achane. This past weekend, they allowed a 36 yard rush to Jerome Ford, a 30 yard completion to Jerry Jeudy, and a 22 yard reception to Elijah Moore. Only the Ravens and Rams have allowed more pass plays of 20+ yards so far this season than the Jaguars.
Playing without their top cornerback Tyson Campbell hasn’t helped matters. This is a unit that relies heavily on man coverage, which is difficult to execute when the team’s top talent isn’t healthy and available.
Buffalo Bills Preview
Allen early MVP frontrunner
After two weeks, it’s hard to argue that Josh Allen isn’t firmly entrenched in early MVP discussions. He ranked 2nd in EPA/play in Week 1 and 3rd in EPA/play in Week 2. Allen has done a good job taking care of the football for the most part and has added a couple of scores with his legs as well.
Part of Buffalo’s success in the passing game so far this fall is due to its unpredictable nature. Five different players have 3+ receptions for the Bills in 2024, but only Khalil Shakir has more than 5 receptions. After Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis departed this offseason, it’s evident that this group is going to spread the ball around on a weekly basis, feeding the hot hand and playing favorable matchups.
Playing behind a strong offensive line, Allen and the Bills show no signs of slowing down any time soon.
Bernard, Johnson, Milano ruled OUT for Week 3
Buffalo has already been playing without All-Pro LB Matt Milano, who is currently on injured reserve, and now they will be forced to play in Week 3 without LB Terrel Bernard. Bernard played 61 snaps in Week 1 but only 15 snaps in Week 2 before exiting the game with an injury. Baylon Spector took over for Bernard against Miami, playing 62 snaps, and he figures to step into a starting role in Week 3. Spector was strong against the run in his 2024 debut but was exploitable in coverage.
CB Taron Johnson is also slated to miss his second consecutive game. Johnson is the team’s starting slot cornerback. He played an NFL-high 474 coverage snaps in the slot in 2023. Among 74 players who logged 100+ coverage snaps in the slot last year, Johnson allowed the 11th fewest yards per snap. This is a notable loss for the Bills’ secondary unit, especially because Johnson is also skilled defending the run. Cam Lewis played 37 snaps in the slot in Week 2 and finished the day allowing 6 receptions on 7 targets. Ja’Marcus Ingram also contributed 22 snaps in the slot against the Dolphins but was only targeted once.
Jaguars vs. Bills Prediction
Buffalo’s offense doesn’t have as many recognizable names as they did in past years, but this group looks as potent as ever. They are one of only two teams in the NFL to post a .200 EPA/play or better in each of the first two weeks of this season. There is little reason to expect them to slow down on Monday, facing an aggressive defense that is playing without their most talented cornerback. At a minimum, Josh Allen and company should be able to put together a few big plays, even if their down-to-down success isn’t elite.
Trevor Lawrence is clearly not shy about throwing the ball deep, judging by his 2nd-ranked aDOT through two weeks of action. The tricky part for him in Week 3 will be figuring out how to attack a Buffalo defense that has only allowed 3 pass completions for 20+ yards this fall and zero completions of more than 24 yards. He might need some help from his running game, which has excelled at finding room in the open field despite a porous offensive line.
Both of these offenses have quarterbacks who are capable of throwing the ball deep downfield with success. It’s unlikely that we see many long, methodical drives for either team in this spot. Expect these two good run defenses to force their opponent to throw the ball. We should see a fair number of points in this matchup.
PICK: OVER 45.5 (-110, DraftKings)
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