Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New Orleans Saints Prediction & Pick for Thursday Night Football
| Jaguars Odds | +1 |
| Saints Odds | -1 |
| Over/Under | 39.5 |
| Date | Thu, Oct. 19 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | Prime Video |
Week 7 of the NFL regular season will begin with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and New Orleans Saints at the Caesars Superdome. Entering play, Jacksonville is in first place in the AFC South division with a 4-2 record. New Orleans is 3-3 and a half-game out of first place in the NFC South division. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Saints as 1-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 39.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Jacksonville Jaguars Preview
Jacksonville offense dealing with injuries
In Week 6, quarterback Trevor Lawrence suffered a knee injury, which caused him to miss practice on Monday and to be limited at practice on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Lawrence is officially listed as questionable ahead of kickoff, but appears to be trending towards playing. Considering the fact that he has not missed a game since entering the NFL, it would be surprising if Lawrence is on the sidelines for Thursday’s action.
Nevertheless, Jacksonville’s offense is still not going to be in great shape against New Orleans, even if Lawrence suits up. Wide receiver Zay Jones and starting left tackle Will Little have already been ruled out. Right guard Brandon Scherff is listed as questionable, but logged only one limited participation at practice this week and two days of no participation.
Little, a former second-round pick out of Stanford, has been one of the better left tackles in the league so far in 2023, ranking 17th out of 73 players in pass block grade and 23rd in run block grade, according to PFF. Cam Robinson is a capable replacement as a pass blocker, but is one of the worst run blockers in the NFL at the position. Scherff ranks 4th as a pass blocker and 25th as a run blocker, out of 77 qualified players, so far this fall, per PFF. If he is unable to go, he will likely be replaced by Blake Hance, who went undrafted in 2019 and has yet to do anything productive at the professional level.
Simply, Lawrence is not going to be 100 percent healthy, even if he does play. The offensive line is banged up and will be without at least one of their best players, if not two. Missing a high-quality wide receiver only adds insult to injury. As a result, expect this group to rely heavily on the run and the short passing game on Thursday, as they look to find a way to move the football without risking further injury to Lawrence.
Campbell ruled OUT
Cornerback Tyson Campbell has been ruled out for Thursday’s matchup against New Orleans, which is a significant blow to Jacksonville’s secondary unit and their run defense. Campbell has been strong in coverage so far this season, ranking 33rd out of 116 qualified players at his position, per PFF. Campbell has been the league’s top graded run defender at cornerback and is fourth on the team in tackles through their first six games. He also has an interception and four passes defended. In his place, Montaric Brown is likely to see an increased role. Brown played 54 snaps in Week 6, allowing six catches on eight targets. He is a tremendous downgrade out wide for this secondary unit.
Through six games to begin the year, Jacksonville’s defense ranks 9th in EPA/play overall and in the top-11 in success rate against both the run and the pass. This unit is down a notch in Week 7, without Campbell, but they still have enough pieces to compete at a high level against a weak New Orleans offense.
New Orleans Saints Preview
What to expect from Derek Carr
Derek Carr has been underwhelming to begin 2023, throwing only five touchdowns and ranking 17th in QBR in his first six games with the Saints. Carr threw for 353 yards last weekend against the Houston Texans, but had thrown for fewer than 200 passing yards each of the previous three weeks and has failed to lead New Orleans to more than 20 points in all but one game this fall.
Carr has led one of the league’s least explosive offenses, ranking 27th in yards per attempt from a clean pocket. Carr ranks 20th in average completed air yars, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. He has also led one of the NFL’s least effective passing attacks, ranking 18th in EPA/play and 20th in success rate among qualified quarterbacks. There is no such thing as a favorable matchup for an offense that has struggled as much as the Saints have so far this season. Expect points to be at a premium for them again on Thursday.
New Orleans defense playing well
Through six games this season, the Saints’ defense has performed admirably, ranking 5th in passing yards allowed per play and better than the league average against the run. The advanced metrics have been equally kind to New Orleans, ranking 5th-best in overall defensive EPA/play and 3rd in success rate.
The biggest question for New Orleans in Week 7 will be whether or not linebacker Demario Davis and safety Tyrann Mathieu will be on the field. Mathieu has practiced in a limited capacity each day this week, which bodes well for his chances of suiting up on Thursday. Davis did not practice at all this week, making it far less likely that we see him play. Davis’ absence would be a huge loss for this unit. Entering play, Davis ranks 7th out of 83 linebackers in run defense grade, per PFF, out of 83 qualified players at his position. He also ranks 10th in coverage grade and 20th as a pass rusher.
Jaguars vs. Saints Prediction & Picks for TNF
It is never fun betting an under on a full game total that is less than 40 points, but we are left with little choice in this Thursday Night Football matchup. The Jaguars have already ruled out one starting offensive lineman for this contest and there is a decent chance they rule out another one prior to kickoff. The Saints are missing two starting offensive lineman as well. Factor in that Trevor Lawrence is dealing with a knee injury and that Derek Carr looks more akin to backup than a starter – it is difficult to see either offense lighting up the scoreboard this evening. Special teams and defensive scores are always a risk when the market number is this low, but the under is still a worthwhile risk in this spot.
LEAN: Under 39.5 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)
PICK: Under 40 (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)