Hittin' The Nuts - SquirrelPatrol's NFL DFS Lineup Advice for Monday Night Football (Jets vs. Niners)
Want to hit the nuts and take down 1st place in these massive contests posted by FanDuel and DraftKings? Who better to walk you through their favorite NFL DFS picks than SquirrelPatrol! Undoubtedly one of the best DFS players in the game, SquirrelPatrol has accumulated 100+ Live Final seats, took 2nd place in the 2023 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship for a $600,000 prize, and most recently, took down the NFL Milly Maker in Week 2 of last season.
Week 1 concludes with the Jets traveling to San Francisco to take on the 49ers for Monday Night Football. With Aaron Rodgers making his second debut for the Jets, the team is a 4-point underdog in a game with a total of 43.5 points. Both teams can be difficult to beat on defense, as the Jets allowed the 3rd-fewest yards per game and the 49ers allowed the 8th-fewest yards per game last season, although the Jets were far better in passing defense (2nd-fewest yards per game allowed) than rush defense (8th-most rushing yards per game allowed). The ScoresandOdds Futures market shows the 49ers as the team with the shortest odds (+300) to win the NFC again, while the Jets have the 5th-shortest odds to win the AFC (+1000).
While the 49ers are returning an offense that looks nearly identical to last season’s NFC Championship team, the Jets could look much different. Rodgers is back after suffering an Achilles injury on the first drive of last season, and the team added Mike Williams from the Chargers, who is returning from a season-ending injury of his own (ACL). There are no major injury situations for this game, with the possible limitation of Williams the only slight question mark, but be sure to follow the RotoGrinders’ NFL starting lineups page for updated depth chart information as injury news and inactives hit in case there are any surprises.
Let’s sort through the slate and figure out what to do with our DFS lineups.
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Jets vs. Niners Showdown NFL DFS Lineup Advice
Primetime Game History
The 49ers made it all the way to the Super Bowl last season, so their most recent Showdown contest was in that game against the Chief. San Francisco was favored by 2 points, and Christian McCaffrey (21%) was the most popular CPT option in the DraftKings large-field contests. Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco, and Patrick Mahomes all followed McCaffrey with between 10-12% CPT ownership. The keys to that slate ended up being pairing the much lower owned value plays, Mecole Hardman and Jauan Jennings (who both put up 14+ DK points), with either Mahomes or McCaffrey at CPT. Mahomes was optimal; however, McCaffrey – CPT lineups won some large-field contests).
San Francisco also played in the NFC Championship game, where they were 7.5-point favorites over the Lions. Their favored status was reflected in the ownership in the largest DraftKings Showdown contest, where McCaffrey (19.3%), George Kittle (12.7%), and Brandon Aiyuk (12.3%) were the highest-owned CPTs. Just like last night, however, Jameson Williams was the CPT in the winning lineup at just 2.5% ownership, with McCaffrey, Aiyuk, and Brock Purdy joining Sam LaPorta and David Montgomery in the FLEX spots.
We really need to look all the way back to Week 1 of last season to find a relevant Showdown contest for this current form of the Jets. The team was a 2.5-point underdog against the Bills at home on MNF for Rodgers’ first debut, and even after Rodgers went down with his injury, the team managed to rally for a win on Xavier Gipson’s kickoff return in OT. Josh Allen was the most popular CPT (26.3%), followed by Garrett Wilson (15.9%) and Rodgers (8.8%). Among other Jets notables, Dalvin Cook drew 6.7% CPT ownership in what was expected to be a timeshare with Breece Hall, while Allen Lazard drew 5.7% ownership in the CPT spot. In a game that played out much differently than expected (with one of the star QBs going down early), we saw a solo-millionaire winning lineup, with Stefon Diggs in the CPT at 8.4% ownership, then both kickers (Greg Zuerlein and Tyler Bass) as well as the Jets defense in the FLEX.
Often, we can tell from looking at past contests the importance of finding lower-owned options and using them in rosters with good lineup construction. Looking at the Jets’ opener from last season, we’re reminded that sometimes games go completely haywire, with the starting QB going down on the first drive and the RB we thought would be limited ripping off 109 yards on his first two touches of the game. That’s Showdown life.
How I Plan to Beat the Field
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