Jets vs. Seahawks Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Jets vs. Seahawks Odds
| Jets Odds | -1.5 |
| Seahawks Odds | +1.5 |
| Over/Under | 42.5 |
| Date | Sun, Jan. 1 |
| Time | 4:05 p.m. |
| TV | FOX |
On New Year’s Day, the New York Jets will travel to Lumen Field to battle the Seattle Seahawks. Entering play, both teams are 7-8 and are in need of help from other teams to secure a postseason berth. The Jets have lost four consecutive games, but Mike White will return to the field in Week 17 in an effort to keep New York’s playoff hopes alive heading into the final weekend of the regular season. Seattle has lost five of their last six contests, but has two winnable games remaining on their schedule. Oddsmakers are expecting a competitive game script between these two teams on Sunday, pricing New York as 1.5-point road favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
New York Jets
Is Mike White the answer at quarterback?
Despite New York fans clamoring for Mike White to return to the field after watching Zach Wilson struggle each of the last two weeks, there is little evidence to support the notion that White is capable of being a savior for this offense. In three games with White under center this fall, the Jets are 1-2, with their lone victory coming against the hapless Chicago Bears. From Week 12 to Week 14, White posted a 3-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, during which the Jets ranked 21st in offensive EPA. In limited action last season, White had a 5-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio, winning only one of the four games in which he appeared.
Lamarcus Joyner returning to the field
After missing the last two games, safety Lamarcus Joyner appears poised to return to the New York secondary unit in Week 17. Though Joyner has struggled in coverage in 2022, he has been a capable run defender and pass-rusher. From Week 1 to Week 14, with him on the field, the Jets ranked 6th overall in defensive EPA and 6th in dropback EPA. In their most recent two games, without Joyner, the Jets ranked 25th overall in defensive EPA and 28th in dropback EPA. On the season, this unit has allowed the 5th-fewest yards-per-carry on the ground and the 5th-fewest yards-per-attempt through the air. Returning one of their key contributors, this group is likely to rebound this weekend.
Key injury news
Right guard Nate Herbig was added to the injury report on Friday with an ankle injury and is listed as questionable for today’s matchup against Seattle. Already playing without starting right tackle Alijah Vera-Tucker, New York’s offensive line could be in extremely poor shape if Herbig ends up on the sidelines. Across his first two NFL seasons, quarterback Mike White has a 4-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio when under pressure, per Pro Football Focus.
Seattle Seahawks
Geno Smith struggling
From Week 1 to Week 5, Geno Smith led the NFL in Pro Football Focus’ passing grade, and ranked 5th in EPA out of 35 qualified signal callers. From Week 6 to Week 16, Smith ranks 21st in Pro Football Focus’ grading system, out of 38 qualified quarterbacks. In that span, he ranks 22nd in EPA. There is no clear reason for Smith’s dramatic regression other than the fact that he significantly overperformed his capabilities by large margins during the early portion of the campaign. On Sunday, he will have to contend with a New York defense that ranks 10th in the NFL this year in sacks per pass attempt. Through 15 games, Smith ranks 17th in passing grade when under pressure, having thrown seven touchdowns and four interceptions.
Defense falling apart
Since Week 10, Seattle ranks 31st in defensive EPA overall, 28th in dropback EPA, and 31st in rush EPA. During that time period, the team’s only victory came against a Los Angeles Rams offense that was starting their backup quarterback, missing their top two wide receivers, and multiple starting offensive lineman. Even against underwhelming offensive talent, this unit is not guaranteed to perform well.
Key Injury News
Safety Ryan Neal is listed as questionable for this contest with a knee injury after not practicing on Friday. Per Pro Football Focus, Neal has been the league’s best safety in coverage in 2022, out of 85 qualified players at his position.
Right tackle Abraham Lucas is listed as questionable for Sunday’s affair with a knee injury after not participating in practice on Friday. A third-round draft selection from this past summer, Lucas has been adequate as both a run- and pass-blocker. His backup, George Fant, has been one of the worst offensive lineman in the NFL when he has been on the field this season.
Defensive tackle Al Woods is also listed as questionable for Week 17, but seems more likely than his other injured teammates to take the field today, considering that he logged a full practice on Friday. Woods has been one of Seattle’s better run defenders and pass-rushers in 2022.
Jets vs. Seahawks – Picks & Predictions
Bettors are advised to wait for the final list of inactives for this matchup, released 90 minutes before kickoff, rather than placing a wager without seeing whether or not safety Ryan Neal and right tackle Abraham Lucas will suit-up on Sunday. Yet, reports from the beat writers imply that the Seahawks are once again likely to be missing two of their most important players, which is likely to make it difficult for them to defend home field in this spot. As of this writing, the Jets appear to be the smart play.
PICK: Jets ML (-125, DraftKings)
Image Credit: Imagn