New York Jets vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Jets at 49ers Odds
| Jets Odds | +4 |
| 49ers Odds | -4 |
| Over/Under | 43.5 |
| Date | Monday, September 9th |
| Time | 8:15 PM ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Week 1 of the 2024 NFL regular season will conclude with an exciting matchup between the New York Jets and San Francisco 49ers. Kickoff is set for 8:15 PM ET on ESPN.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the 49ers as 4-point favorites on the spread. The total is set at 43.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
The Jets are coming off of a disappointing 2023 campaign in which they finished 7-10 following Aaron Rodgers’ season-ending Achilles injury. Brock Purdy and the 49ers are fresh off of a devastating overtime loss in this past February’s Super Bowl.
New York Jets Preview
Nathaniel Hackett, Aaron Rodgers Reunited
Though their renewed partnership was delayed one year by an unfortunate season-ending Achilles injury, offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett and quarterback Aaron Rodgers are finally back together heading into 2024. Hackett was Green Bay’s offensive coordinator from 2019-2021, during which Rodgers had some of his most productive campaigns – combining for 111 touchdowns against only 13 interceptions in those three seasons. The Packers offense was particularly strong in those final two season, ranking 1st in DVOA in 2020 and 2nd in DVOA in 2022, which led to Hackett taking a head coaching job in Denver (we won’t talk about that failed experiment in this article).
The biggest question marks surrounding the Jets’ offense going into Week 1 is simply how Rodgers will look after such a long layoff. Rodgers threw only 1 pass in 2023 before being done for the year. He didn’t play in the preseason this fall either. Of the 9 other starting quarterbacks who didn’t play in the preseason, only 1 of them threw for multiple touchdowns and 6 of them threw for 217 passing yards or fewer.
This is an offense with a lot of talent, including a completely revamped offensive line. However, it might take a little bit longer than expected before we see this group firing on all cylinders.
Can the Jets defense continue to be great?
The Jets have firmly established themselves as one of the premier defenses in recent seasons, ranking 3rd in DVOA in 2023 and 6th in DVOA in 2022, despite the team’s offense not doing them any favors in terms of field position or time of possession. The Jets have star talent at every level on this side of the ball, with Quinnen Williams and Jermaine Johnson on the defensive line, Quincy Williams and C.J. Mosley at linebacker, and Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed on the outside.
This group is healthy as kickoff approaches on Monday. They don’t fit any “regression” categories other than the fact that they have been very healthy each of the last two years. They didn’t have great fumble luck last season, and they actually finished with a -6 turnover differential because of the offense. This is one of the most talented defenses in the NFL, if not the most talented defense.
San Francisco 49ers Preview
Will 49ers’ offensive holdouts impact production on Monday?
San Francisco isn’t thought of as a dysfunctional organization by any means, but it’s worth noting that two of their better players, WR Brandon Aiyuk and LT Trent Williams, both missed significant practice time this fall due to contract disputes. Aiyuk signed his 4-year, $120 million contract extension on August 29th. Williams signed his new 3-year, $83 million deal less than a week ago. Suffice it to say, neither of these players are likely to be particularly sharp after not practicing with the team until this last week. When Nick Bosa had his contract dispute with the 49ers leading up to Week 1 in 2023, he only played 56% of the team’s snaps in the season opener and later admitted that he didn’t feel fully up to speed until around the team’s Week 9 bye.
Factor in that running back Christian McCaffrey is at less than 100% health and that starting offensive lineman Jon Feliciano is on injured reserve coming, and it’s easy to see a path to San Francisco’s offense struggling…or at least being inconsistent.
San Francisco defense banged up heading into Week 1
The 49ers are likely to be without some core pieces of their defense on Monday night. Safety Talanoa Hufanga is listed as doubtful; he finished 2023 ranked 42nd out of 94 players at his position in coverage and 18th against the run, per Pro Football Focus. From Week 1 to Week 11, with Hufanga on the field, San Francisco’s defense ranked 5th in EPA/play and 14th in success rate. From Week 12 to Week 17, with Hufanga injured, they regressed to 16th in EPA/play and 15th in success rate. They fell out of the top 10 in both EPA/play and success rate defending the pass.
San Francisco will also be without cornerback Ambry Thomas, who had the 4th-most passes defensed of any member of this secondary in 2023. Defensive end Yetur Gross-Matos has also been ruled out. Gross-Matos is coming off of a nice season in Carolina in which he had a career-high 4.5 sacks in only 12 games and ranked 41st out of 112 players at his position against the run, according to PFF.
Jets at 49ers Prediction
There are a lot of new faces on both of these teams heading into this Monday Night Football matchup, but one thing we do have probable cause to believe is that we won’t see a very quick pace. Last season, San Francisco had the slowest offensive pace in the entire NFL and ran no-huddle less frequently than any other team. In 2022, the 49ers had the 2nd-slowest pace and ran no-huddle less often than everyone else except the Chiefs. In 2021, we saw the 49ers and the Nathaniel Hackett / Aaron Rodgers Packers rank 31st and 32nd, respectively, in pace.
All of this is to say that neither one of these teams are likely to have an “all gas, no brakes” approach to running their offense on Monday, especially on the 49ers side with one starting offensive lineman out and another returning from a contract holdout only a week ago. If these two defenses can avoid giving up big plays and avoid committing costly penalties, it’s likely that we see a low-scoring affair. It would be particularly surprising to see either of these offenses be overly aggressive early in this game, making the 1st half under a worthwhile consideration.
PICK: Under 21 – 1st Half (-120, bet365)
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