JMToWin's MLB Edge: Friday, April 10th
Each Tuesday & Friday this MLB Season, the legendary JMtoWin (2014 DK WBC Atlantis Finalist, 2014 DSBC Finalist x2) will bring you premium DFS MLB analysis like no one else in the industry can. A top-tier Grinder, and a professional writer, FD & DK subscribers can expect only the best quality throughout MLB season. Check out a sample of JMtoWin’s work from this NFL season here.
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Do What You Can Do Each Day
Welcome back! Happy Friday, and all that jazz (or, Jazz if you’re from Utah…because of, you know, all the hot jazz spots Utah is known for).
How has the first week of baseball treated you?
Oh, how has it treated me? Thanks for asking!
Let’s see: Opening Day went really well. The Sox won. Our “ace” (who, naturally, would be a solid #3 guy on most rotations) almost looked like an actual ace. And I got my feet under me for MLB really quickly – remembering everything I learned last season about strategy, roster construction, approach, etc., with ease – leading to a tidy profit. Nice!
The second day of the season went even better. I actually finished 8th out of about 7,000 entries in the $5 double-up on DraftKings – an indication of just how good that team was – and won 47 out of 47 head-to-heads. I did not enter that particular team into any GPPs (a justifiable move, of course, as GPP construction is fundamentally different from cash game construction in MLB), so I did not benefit as fully as I would have liked from the high score there, but I did do all right with the GPP teams I entered. In all, a very solid day!
I took Wednesday off in order to keep my mind sharp (I don’t often take days off during the season, but I felt I needed it as the start of the season has been a bit of a whirlwind!).
And then, that takes us to Thursday.
Ouch.
On Thursday, I had a team set with a couple players in the Minnesota-Detroit game. I also had a plan in place for switches to make if that game looked like it might get rained out. Part of that switch included playing Joey Votto at first base.
When the Reds game (the first game of the day) was starting, it looked likely that the game in Detroit would be rained out (certainly, all the beat writers were expressing this sentiment on Twitter). But I realized: “Hey, I can use Brandon Moss at first base instead of Joey Votto, and that will give me a little longer to keep an eye on the radar and see if I want to switch off this Detroit game or not.” Ultimately, I did switch off that game – going with Moss at first base.
Moss put up a 0.
Votto put up 16.
I failed to cash by just a couple points.
Now, if you told me this story, my answer to you would be something along the lines of: “That sucks! But hey, it happens. Votto had a higher floor, Moss had a higher ceiling; both were pretty good plays in their matchups, and there was no way you could have known Votto would outproduce Moss by that much. Just keep making smart plays each day, though, and things will work out over time.”
That’s the answer I could give myself in response to that story, too. Except for one tiny problem:
I entered more in cash games on Thursday than I entered the first two days combined!
Furthermore, I entered more in GPPs (much more in GPPs) than I had the first two days.
Then, because I wiped out in those early games, I decided to go heavy in GPP again in the night games in an effort to “win my money back.” I built a team with Masterson and Norris at pitcher, then paid up for the most expensive bats at every position. At the last minute, though, I switched off this team. “You have to use Ian Kennedy,” I told myself. “Everyone else will be on him, and you’re taking too much risk by not using him. Stick with the field there, and gain an edge elsewhere.”
If you paid attention to last night’s games, you know that Kennedy was pulled with an injury in the third inning. You also know he was 90% owned. You could also, probably, guess that I would have won around $7,000 if I had stuck with my non-Kennedy team.
Now, again, that’s not to say that using Masterson was, fundamentally, a better play than using Kennedy. I am, of course, a firm believer in differentiating from the field in MLB GPP, but pitcher is usually the last place I think about doing that; pitching, after all, is largely predictable! I’m fine using the 90% owned pitcher if he’s highly likely to have the best score of the night, and I’m happy to pick up my “differentiation” elsewhere. And certainly, there was no way to know Kennedy would get hurt at the very beginning of the game (and what’s more: he was cruising when he got hurt, and would probably have put up a very good score).
What it IS to say, however, is that… um, I guess I’ll be blunt. I’ll come right out and say it:
I suck at bankroll management. Absolutely suck at it.
Seriously. I’ve had more ups and downs than you can imagine – more massive bankroll swings than anyone would ever hope to have (if, that is, keeping one’s own sanity is also among one’s hopes). It’s not because that’s “just the way it goes in DFS,” either. Not at all! Instead, it’s simply because bankroll management is something at which I am truly awful.
Want proof that this is not “just the way it goes in DFS”? I’m sure he can back me up on this if he reads this, but – if I remember correctly – STLCardinals84 has made a total of two deposits with his own money in his entire DFS career: a $100 deposit when he first started playing (which he eventually lost), followed by a $200 deposit. That’s it. He’s never had to deposit again. (Did I get those details right, Justin? I don’t remember where I read that, but I know I remember reading that somewhere!)
But that’s not my story. Not at all. Not even close.
Am I up, monetarily, throughout my DFS “career”? Absolutely – I’m up plenty! (Uh…at the moment, at least…) But I’m up a whole lot less than I could be. I’m up a whole lot less than I should be! And it’s all because I suck at bankroll management.
I’m not really going anywhere with this. I’m not writing this to say something like, “Hey, listen to me on this topic.” (I mean – duh I’m not saying that! (side note: I was not allowed to say “duh” when I was a kid; in retrospect, I have no idea why)). Maybe I’m just saying it to say, hey, we all have things we are working on in DFS. We are all continually growing. As long as you purpose to continually grow, however, you will continually improve!
As an author, one of the lessons I had to learn a long, long time ago was…well, I guess there are a lot of ways to express the analogy. One is to say: “You can’t eat a life-sized gingerbread house all at once. You have to eat it one bite at a time.” That’s not a very common expression, or a very applicable one, but it’s true. There’s also one about eating an elephant that’s pretty similar (that whole “one bite at a time” thing), but I’m pretty sure PETA would have something to say about that one, and anyway, I would think the elepahnt meat would spoil before you could eat all of it. The point of the various ways in which this thought can be expressed, however, is the simple truth that a large project can only be tackled one step at a time. A mountain can only be climbed one step at a time. A life-sized gingerbread house can only be eaten one bite at a…well, you get the idea.
The way I always say it, to myself, is: “Do what you can do each day.” As long as you are doing what you can do each day, you will continue to move toward the places you want to go.
Writing a novel? Do what you can do each day. Over time, you will get there. (That one, of course, is mostly for me…but maybe there are some aspiring novelists amongst my readership; if so, that one is for you as well!)
Building your bankroll? Do what you can do each day. If you have a plan, and you stick to the plan (and don’t suddenly enter more on one day than you entered the previous two days combined!), you will eventually get there.
Becoming the best daily fantasy sports player you can possibly be? Do what you can do each day! As long as you continue learning, continue assessing your approach, continue finding ways in which you can improve, and continue studying this great game, you will continue to become a better (and better, and better) DFS player.
Do what you can do each day!
Before we get to our breakdown of today’s slate, I want to mention one other thing:
One reason I chose to talk about my bankroll missteps is because I sometimes brag a bit too much about my awesome recommendations for actual DFS plays. Part of the bragging is because…well, simply, it’s good for building my readership (and for RotoGrinders!) for people to know just how good some of my picks are! If I simply make good suggestions, people might forget that I made them; if I make good suggestions (like calling Latos against the Braves on Tuesday a risky play, or encouraging people in my article on Tuesday and AGAIN on Twitter to consider Jake Lamb and David Peralta (a home run apiece for them that night)), and I then remind everyone that I made these suggestions, it gets more people paying attention to my thoughts.
So, yeah. I made those suggestions. Boom!
But because I have that tendency to thump my chest over some of the picks I make (I still remember Week 6 or 7 or so of NFL season when I was the only person suggesting Russell Wilson, and he was about 4% owned, and he went off for 40+ points! – oh, and same thing with Sammy Watkins the week before that; yes, I’m willing to give (myself) credit where credit is due), it’s also worth letting you know where I am making mistakes (one of the drawbacks, perhaps, of being a confident-yet-generally-humble human being).
I’m making mistakes, guys. A lot of mistakes. Major bankroll mistakes! Seriously. Do not listen to any thoughts I happen to have in that particular area.
I’m going to start improving, though. I’m going to focus on increasing my bankroll one day at a time, rather than trying to do it all at once.
I’m going to start doing what I can do each day.
Care to join me?
Let’s go!
4/10/15 – AN INTRO TO TODAY’S SLATE:
As I said on Tuesday: My goal in this article is to give you a unique perspective you cannot get from other articles (after all, why should you read this article if you can find the same information anywhere else?). As such, the actual presentation of the slate-specific content may look very different from one Tuesday or Friday to the next. Feel free to let me know which article presentations you enjoy the most and find most useful (as with NFL: if an overwhelming majority of readers prefer a specific format – as was the case during NFL, when most people vocally preferred the game-by-game breakdown – I’ll skew more heavily toward that), but regardless of the presentation, the purpose will remain the same in each article: to provide you with a unique take (and a unique edge) on that day’s slate that you will not be able to find in any other article.
Today – as I mentioned Tuesday would be the case – we will be breaking things down by pitchers. I’ll dig into each pitcher a bit, and I’ll let you know what each pitcher’s outlook means for your roster construction!
As I said on Sunday, and again on Tuesday: I strongly believe that predicting pitching is the foundation of MLB DFS (for both picking your pitchers and pitcking your hitters!). Use these thoughts on today’s pitchers, then, to help you build your entire team.
DON’T SKIP THIS PART:
It is important to realize that the beginning of the season makes things a bit weird with pitcher pricing. Because almost all teams (all teams besides the Mets, that is) start their ace on Opening Day, we end up with a lot of really good pitchers to choose from for a couple days…then a lot of #4 and #5 pitchers going at the same time a few days later. As injuries, rainouts, off days, and so on cause different teams’ pitching rotations to become staggered, you’ll have a couple aces going every day, and a few #5 (or worse!) guys going every day. For now, however, we’re in a place where all teams are throwing what is essentially their #4 or #5 guy out there today.
This means that there will be a lot of great matchups for hitters today, and there will not be a ton of great pitching options. In cash games, go with the most obvious pitching options and trust that they will treat you well! Although there will always be those random days when an approach such as this fails to work, you need to realize that this is an extremely +EV approach in the long run.
And finally, you need to realize that you may very well not end up filling out your entire budget on a day like today. With most pitching options priced so cheap, I feel it is perfectly okay to leave $1k or $2k on the table if you prefer the team you can build by spending a little less of your money. Don’t pay up just to pay up! Instead, realize that a day like today offers a unique opportunity to load up on solid bats while also taking the best pitchers of the day, and build the best team you can build based on matchups and expected performance.
And now, for the fun stuff…
BREAKING DOWN TODAY’S PITCHERS
EARLY GAMES
Mark Buehrle – LHP – at Orioles
SPLITS: Last year, Buehrle gave up a .318 wOBA to lefties and a .332 wOBA to righties. Each are in line with his career averages, and neither stands out as numbers to target with hitters.
SKILLS: Here’s an interesting stat: Mark Buehrle has the slowest fastball in the majors besides R.A. Dickey (who, you know, throws a knuckleball…so it’s not like we expect him to have a real fastball). Obviously, that means you can’t normally use him on your DFS roster. No strikeouts = no fantasy upside. (I say “normally,” because this whole slate today is full of not-great-to-use pitchers, which means Buehrle may be your best bet!) The catch, however, is that he’s such a crafty pitcher, he’s also tough to target with hitters.
MATCHUP: The Orioles have a great lineup, but they are still missing Hardy and Wieters. With how few options we have available today at pitcher, Buehrle may be in play on two-pitcher sites.
ASSESSMENT: I’m not a big BvP (batter-vs-pitcher) guy (in fact, I’m not really a BvP guy at all!), but with a guy like Buehrle – who has been around forever – I do like to glance. One interesting matchup from BvP is Delmon Young: 50 at-bats, .420 average, .1.153 OPS. Just saying! As for other hitters: Look, Buehrle gives up hits. It’s what he does! But he doesn’t get knocked around, and he doesn’t give up a ton of hard contact. Adam Jones – with his abilty to hit lefties hard – is a solid option. Pearce, Machado, and – heck – even Chris Davis can be considered. But none of these guys beg you to play them!
Bud Norris – RHP – v Blue Jays
SPLITS: Norris allowed a .333 wOBA to lefties last year, and held righties to a .296 wOBA.
SKILLS: Norris has average strikeout stuff, average ground ball stuff, and average run-prevention stuff. He’s not typically a guy you want to target with hitters. He’s not typically a guy you want to use. Also…
MATCHUP: Against the Blue Jays, he’s definitely not a “guy you want to use.” Sure, he looked pretty solid during the second half of last year, and he may carry that over to this year. But this early in the season, against this lineup, it’s not a risk you really want to take. This statement, however, comes with the obvious caveat: on two-pitcher sites, it’s not like there are too many appealing options!
ASSESSMENT: I don’t really know how much to trust Spring Training numbers. Honestly, it varies from player to player. Norris was awful in Spring Training, but some guys use Spring Training to loosen their arm and try some new things; there is no guarantee his poor Spring Training means he is “struggling” at the moment. If you want to imagine that his preseason struggles will carry over into the season, however, a low-owned Blue Jays stack could be an intriguing GPP option. There are definitely arguments that can be made in favor of that play.
Collin McHugh – RHP – at Rangers
SPLITS: McHugh held batters from both sides of the plate to very low wOBAs last year: .272 to lefties, and a miniscule .252 to righties.
SKILLS: Man. Collin freaking McHugh. His K% is super enticing (25.4% last year!), and his SIERA of 3.14 strongly backs up his actual ERA of 2.73. But…let me just warn you, he can be frustrating to use. The reason? It seems like it always takes him two or three (or four, or five) pitches to put a guy away with a strikeout. As such, he will have plenty of high-K games, but without a ton of innings (last year, in 25 starts, he reached the 7th inning only eight times). He will also randomly come out and just not have his best stuff (in 25 starts, he had NINE starts in which he either gave up four runs or failed to make it longer than 5.1 innings (or both!)).
MATCHUP: The Rangers seem to be rounding into form as an offense. It’s still too early for me to really render an assessment of them, but they do still seem to be a team that can pile up strikeouts.
ASSESSMENT: As his early-season price is starting fairly low (given his ceiling), and he’s pitching on an early slate with so few options, he’s strongly in play. Just realize, however, that he frustrated owners nearly 40% of games last year! When he’s on, though, he is really on.
Derek Holland – LHP – v Astros
SPLITS: In his career, Holland has given up a .293 wOBA to lefties and a .335 wOBA to righties. He improved even further on those numbers last year, but his five starts from last year is a very small sample size.
SKILLS: Holland is not a high-strikeout guy, and his peripheral stats don’t scream “stay away from him with hitters.” With that said, he seems to rarely give up hard contact…which isn’t great for using bats, as the Astros capitalize on making hard contact!
MATCHUP: The Astros strike out a ton. Sadly, Holland does not get a ton of strikeouts. I don’t love him as a cash game play (especially given the power the Astros possess), but he could be a sneaky tournament option – and given the state of this afternoon’s pitching options, he may work out for cash games as well.
ASSESSMENT: He’s not a great guy to use, given the low strikeouts…and he’s not a great guy to use hitters against, given his skill level. That is especially the case when, you know, there is a game at Coors Field today. Speaking of…
Travis Wood – LHP – at Rockies
SPLITS: Travis Wood impressively held lefties to a .276 wOBA last year. He also, impressively, gave up a .371 wOBA to righties last year – but that second one is impressive for how bad it is, not for how good it is!
SKILLS: Wood is a somewhat-low-strikeout, high-fly-ball pitcher, with a SIERA that hovers in the mid-4 range. Also…
MATCHUP: Hello, let me introduce you to Coors Field. And to the Rockies lineup.
ASSESSMENT: The Cubs are a smart organization, right? They have Theo Epstein. They have Jed Hoyer. They have Joe Maddon. So how do they have a guy with a combined 65% fly ball / line drive rate scheduled to pitch at Coors Field? Sheesh! One note: Wood induces an above-average infield fly ball rate, so not all of his fly balls are soaring toward the fences. But…yeah. A lot of them still are. Stay far away from Wood, of course. Load up on Rox righties in cash games. And…heck, maybe just stay away from GPPs today, since playing contrarian probably won’t work, as everyone stacking the Rockies are likely to be correct!
Tyler Matzek – LHP – v Cubs
SPLITS: Last year, Matzek gave up a ludicrously low .199 wOBA to lefties. His wOBA vs righties, however, was .372. Before you get too excited, though (and a bit more on this below, but…), his wOBA allowed on the road last year was .355. His wOBA allowed at home (yes, at Coors Field) was an impressively low .301.
SKILLS: Matzek is an odd one. He has several years of poor minor league numbers to his name. He pitched relatively poorly on the road last year with the Rockies. And yet, in eight starts at Coors Field, he had a 3.63 ERA, gave up only two home runs, and allowed only a .674 OPS. He improved each month in the majors last year, and there were plenty of days when people stacked against him (because, you know, he was a rookie pitching at Coors Field), only for me to take all the money because I recognized how well he was pitching at home and faded Coors Field and stacked elsewhere. With that said: it doesn’t exactly make sense!
MATCHUP: This is not about how Matzek matches up with the Cubs. You’re not using Matzek on your roster. It’s about how the Cubs match up with Matzek. How do they match up? Well…
ASSESSMENT: I don’t love the idea of a Cubs stack in GPP. Sure, they could have a big game – but if they do, they’ll be super high-owned, so you won’t gain much of an edge on the field. On the other hand, however, if they have a bad game, you gain an edge on the field by not having used them. As for cash games…it’s a tough call, really. There is no logical reason why Matzek should be BETTER at Coors Field, but this is also not the first time we have seen this. Jorge De La Rosa pitches much better at Coors Field (career 4.60 ERA…but 3.98 at Coors Field!), and maybe Matzek is just that way as well. Who knows. I wouldn’t blame you for throwing some Cubs righties into your cash game lineup, but I wouldn’t blame you for staying away completely, either.
Alfredo Simon – RHP – at Indians
SPLITS: Last year, Simon held lefties to a .313 wOBA, and he held righties to a .296 wOBA. Expect those numbers to go up this year… but even at that, he does manage to induce a decent amount of sub-optimal contact.
SKILLS: Check out this All Star! Seriously, though, there are some interesting stats that accompany Simon’s move to the Tigers. For one, his strikeout rate goes down considerably if you take out his strikeouts last year versus pitchers (and already he’s a low strikeout guy). For another thing, a large part of his solid numbers last year (considering most of his pitches get put in play) can be attributed to the excellent defense of the Reds. You probably know already, of course, that the Tigers have something of the opposite reputation defensively, so…yeah. I’m not loving the idea of using Simon on any of my rosters.
MATCHUP: No. No thanks.
ASSESSMENT: Obviously, you don’t want to be looking to use Simon as a pitcher on your roster. As for using hitters against him? It’s a tough call, honestly! If you want to play things safe in cash games and load up on Rockies bats, you’ll have to save money somewhere. Simon may not be the guy to target…but then again, there may not be too many options in the early slate that are better than him either!
Zach McCallister – RHP – v Tigers
SPLITS: McCallister allowed a .343 wOBA to lefties last year. His wOBA allowed to righties was a more respectable .316.
SKILLS: McCallister’s numbers looked awful last year on the surface (5.23 ERA!), but his SIERA was actually 3.86 – still bad, but not as awful as you might imagine. He’s pretty average at inducing ground balls, and he’s slightly below-average in striking out guys. Basically, he’s not a great pitcher to use. Especially when…
MATCHUP: …he’s playing the Tigers!
ASSESSMENT: If you want to move away from Coors Field and be a bit contrarian, a Tigers stack is definitely in play. Just don’t go into the day imagining you’ll be the only person who thinks of this!
Tommy Milone – LHP – at White Sox
SPLITS: Milone allowed a .323 wOBA to lefties last year and a .339 wOBA to righties. Neither are awful marks… but certainly, neither are good, either!
SKILLS: Here we are in #4 / #5 pitcher purgatory! Milone had an ugly SIERA of 4.57 last year to go with a super low strikeout rate (14.5%) and a too-high walk rate.
MATCHUP: Milone really holds no appeal for a spot on your DFS lineup. What you want to know about is the White Sox against him.
ASSESSMENT: The White Sox against Milone could be a very interesting contrarian stack, with everyone else on the Cubs, Rockies, and Tigers. Is there a chance this stack crashes (or that, even if it does well, the other stacks do even better)? Of course! But there is definite merit to the idea of going contrarian here and hoping for the best!
Hector Noesi – RHP – v Twins
SPLITS: Noesi was a reverse-splits guy last year, giving up a .320 wOBA to lefties, while allowing a .367 wOBA to righties. Throughout his career, righties hit him slightly better than lefties, but hitters from both sides of the plate have wOBAs around .350.
SKILLS: Noesi gave up more home runs last year than any pitcher in baseball. He also had a SIERA of 4.34, along with a measly 16.8 k%. As a fly ball pitcher at U.S. Cellular field, against a lineup that has some pop and is likely to experience some positive regression very soon, this is not a guy you want to hang with!
MATCHUP: The Twins are a much better lineup than they have shown so far. They have a lot of pop, and they mix in some hitters who can get on base and score runs when a home run is hit.
ASSESSMENT: Noesi may be the worst pitcher on the board in this early slate – and that’s really saying something! He did shut down several lineups last year on days when everyone stacked against him, but if you want to go contrarian in GPP, this is definitely a place to look. Furthermore you can save money with some of the Twins hitters to free up space for Rockies bats in cash games!
Late Slate
Wade Miley – LHP – at Yankees
SPLITS: Lefties clipped Miley for a .326 wOBA last year. Righties hit him at a .331 wOBA.
SKILLS: Let’s just say I was not exactly pumped when the Red Sox acquired Miley. Fair enough? He is very much NOT a bad pitcher. That’s about what we can say about him. He combines elite groundball stuff with an average (to slightly above-average) strikeout rate. That’s the good news. But he walks too many guys, he gives up too many home runs (HR/FB is something that typically normalizes over time, but that is unlikely to be the case for Miley, as his infield fly ball rate is ridiculously low), and he seems to allow himself to get into trouble too often.
MATCHUP: The Yankees have a pretty balanced lineup, with plenty of switch hitters that can bat from the right side against a lefty. They have power (even if it is old man power), and they’re not going to strike out a lot. In a good matchup, Miley will probably be a sneaky good play this year; in this matchup, however, I’d say not so much.
ASSESSMENT: You should know, I tend to be purposefully pessimistic about players on my own favorite team, as I want to make sure I’m not going overboard on using guys from the team I like just because I like them! This can get me into trouble on nights like last night, when I stayed away from Masterson, and… hey, perhaps I’m too bearish on Miley as well. After all, his home run troubles last year came mostly at Chase Field, which is a park that is very favorable for home run hitters. Perhaps Miley will be a much better pickup for the Sox than I am anticipating. With that said, this matchup tonight is still (from an unbiased standpoint) not the best.
Nathan Eovaldi – RHP – v Red Sox
SPLITS: Eovaldi held righties to a .304 wOBA last year, but lefties notched a .336 wOBA.
SKILLS: There is very little in MLB DFS that is more frustrating than rostering Eovaldi and subsequently watching him pitch. The guy has a scorching fastball, but he can’t strike out anyone! He’ll get to two strikes, then hitters will foul off pitch after pitch before finally finding something to put into play. Unless Eovaldi has developed a true strikeout pitch this offseason (it does not appear he has), he’s not going to turn his seemingly electric stuff into many great fantasy outings.
MATCHUP: Strangely, this Red Sox team seems to be following in the footsteps of last year’s team in the strikeout department. With that said, however, the Sox aim to build their team around guys who don’t strike out, so we should see more of that “difficulty to strike out” this year – and that means that this is not a game in which Eovaldi is likely to luck into a bunch of Ks. Furthermore, the Sox have left-handed power, and that’s what gives Eovaldi trouble, and this game is being played in the left-handed-power-heaven known as Yankee Stadium.
ASSESSMENT: Frankly, there are worse pitchers tonight against whom you can use hitters. And there are worse lineups (and better pitchers!) for purposes of picking pitchers. The Sox are built to be one of the top offenses in baseball, and that means they could be a strong stack any night, against any pitcher, so keep that in mind if you want to go the road less traveled tonight. But nothing in this game screams “must play.”
Gio Gonzalez – LHP – at Phillies
SPLITS: Gio held righties to a .293 wOBA last year, and was even better against lefties, holding them to a .284 mark.
SKILLS: On most nights, I feel Gio is overpriced for what you get, as his reputation (as well as his typical DFS price tag) leads you to believe you’re getting a pitcher who, you know, could make it to 7 innings in more than 8 of his 27 starts (in fact, Gio reached the 7th inning the same number of times last year that he failed to go more than 5 innings!). On a night like tonight, however – when teams are all throwing out their #4 and #5 pitchers (and this is the Nationals version of a #4 pitcher!), you’ll take the 25% strikeout rate and 45% ground ball rate and not complain one bit about the fact that he may not make it out of the 5th inning!
MATCHUP: The Phillies do not have a good lineup. The Phillies are also prone to striking out. Now that’s a good combination!
ASSESSMENT: I don’t like the term “must play,” as there is always room for argument in any such situation; with that said, Gio is as close to a “must play” in cash games as you can get tonight – even on a 10-game slate. As for GPP? He’s a strong fade candidate, simply because his ownership will probably be SO high. If you choose to fade him, however, realize that you are still probably fading the best pitching play of the night, and are simply hoping for a stroke of luck to help you soar past everyone who rostered him.
Jerome Williams – RHP – v Nationals
SPLITS: Lefties tagged Williams for a .348 wOBA last year. Righties notched a .320 wOBA off him.
SKILLS: Sure, Williams pitched well for the Phillies last year (his third team of the season – which should tell you something!), but his SIERA on the year was still 4.03, and his strikeout rate was only 16.5%, making him a poor DFS play.
MATCHUP: You’re not using Jerome Williams in your DFS lineups – let’s just get that out of the way now!
ASSESSMENT: This is all about whether or not it is advisable to use hitters against him, and the answer is: I really don’t know! He truly did improve once he reached Philadelphia last year (though not as much as his numbers on the surface would indicate), and the Nats are still hurting on offense. But, at the same time, he’s Jerome Williams, and they are the Nats. I’d say the Nats are a strong stack option in GPP; although they could get shut down, they also have the highest ceiling of just about any team tonight. I’d be a bit more wary of picking hitters on the Nats in cash, though, until we see what Williams looks like this year.
John Lackey – RHP – at Reds
SPLITS: Lackey has been a reverse-splits guy the last two years. Last year, he allowed a .327 wOBA to righties, while keeping lefties to a .316 wOBA.
SKILLS: Lackey’s “skills” are about as difficult to assess or predict as any pitcher in baseball. It seems you never know what version of Lackey will show up (and heaven help us all as we try to predict how he’ll perform when being forced to pitch for the league minimum salary due to a clause the Red Sox put in his contract regarding his elbow!). He’s pretty much a league average strikeout pitcher these days, with ground ball rates that are slightly above league average. He combines this with a solid but unspectacular 3.64 SIERA. The thing is, however: Lackey doesn’t pitch to these numbers consistently! He seems to either be far better than or far worse than these numbers in any given start. Last year, in 31 starts, he gave up 5 or more runs a whopping seven times! He also, however, held his opponents to 1 or fewer runs on eight occasions. Additionally, Lackey had 11 starts in which he struck out a batter an inning or better…but combined that with seven starts in which he struck out only one batter every two innings or worse. He’s like the Andre Drummond of pitchers! (That’s for all of you transitioning from NBA…) He’s a high-upside play – especially against a still-strikeout-prone Reds lineup – but he’s a high-risk play for cash games.
MATCHUP: The Reds have a solid lineup on paper, but they’re still striking out too much.
ASSESSMENT: I would not be averse to stacking against Lackey in GPP. And I would not be averse to using Lackey in GPP! I’m not sure I would use players on either side of this matchup in cash games, though.
Jason Marquis – RHP – v Cardinals
SPLITS: In AAA last year, Marquis held righties to a .676 OPS, while lefties notched a .733 OPS vs him. In his last year in the Majors – 2013 – lefties had a very high .378 wOBA vs him, while righties had a .322 wOBA. (The year before, lefties were even better, with a ridiculous .400 wOBA!)
SKILLS: Marquis is an elite ground ball pitcher…with a poor strikeout rate and a very high SIERA (his career SIERA is 4.73!). Last year, at the age of 35, he spent the entire season at AAA – in spite of a decade of Major League experience. That should tell you most of what you need to know.
MATCHUP: Do not use Jason Marquis!
ASSESSMENT: The Cardinals don’t strike out, and they’re facing a guy who doesn’t strike anyone out. That’s good! The Cardinals make for a strong stack candidate, and may even fly under the radar. Furthermore, the Cardinals hitters could end up being very solid plays in cash games as well.
Steve Geltz – RHP – at Marlins
SPLITS: Last year, in a suspension-shortened minor league season, Geltz allowed a .731 OPS to righties, but held lefties to a .435 OPS! He maintained those reverse splits the previous year, with righties hitting him at a .602 OPS, but lefties sitting at a ridiculously low .459 OPS.
SKILLS: Steve Geltz has ridiculous strikeout numbers. He’s going to get strikeouts today. He was also, however, slated to be pitching in the bullpen, so he may very well be going only four or five innings.
MATCHUP: The Marlins are continually improving their lineup, but they are still going to struggle with strikeouts this year, and the game is still in a spacious home ballpark.
ASSESSMENT: I would love to use Geltz if I knew he was going to get enough innings! He should rack up strikeouts, and may even hold the Marlins off the board, in his time on the mound. But he’s unlikely to be out there too long, as he’s simply not stretched out (and hasn’t been used as a starter in years). He’s worth a cheap GPP flier to see if you can catch lightning in a bottle, but he’s far too risky for cash.
Dan Haren – RHP – v Rays
SPLITS: While Haren serves up a ton of home runs, he tends to be otherwise respectable. He held lefties to a .290 wOBA last year, while righties pitched in a .333 wOBA. Those reverse splits are not a fluke; it’s been that way for the last four years.
SKILLS: Haren is a fly ball pitcher who no longer gets many strikeouts. That’s not a good skill set to have.
MATCHUP: The Rays have something of a makeshift lineup, and…you never know, Haren could shut them down. By that same token, however, Haren could get blown up by them!
ASSESSMENT: There aren’t enough solid Tampa bats or scoring opportunities for me to feel comfortable with Tampa as a cash game option. And Haren is certainly not a cash game pitcher. I guess anything is in play in GPP, though!
Jon Niese – LHP – at Braves
SPLITS: Niese held lefties to a .289 wOBA last year. He allowed a .329 wOBA to righties.
SKILLS: With a below-average strikeout rate, an above-average line drive rate, and a high SIERA, Niese is not a guy you want to use. There seems to be an early-season concept that “any pitcher is a good pitcher against the Braves.” What this idea neglects to acknowledge, however, is that these are still Major League hitters! Given the lack of Ks, Niese is not a high-ceiling fantasy play.
MATCHUP: The Braves do not have a strong lineup at the moment – but, again, they are still Major League hitters.
ASSESSMENT: I will not be using Niese on my rosters, although I’m sure plenty of people will. As for using Braves hitters, well…Freddie Freeman is the only truly appealing option, in my mind. But with no protection around him, it’s tough to get too excited, as I have a hard time seeing him getting many crushable pitches, and Niese doesn’t exactly get crushed by lefties in the first place.
Eric Stults – LHP – v Mets
SPLITS: Last year, Stults allowed a .341 wOBA to righties…and a .342 wOBA to lefties! He also allowed a .350 wOBA away from Petco Park last year.
SKILLS: Stults is all the things you don’t want in a pitcher: low strikeout rate, high fly ball rate, low infield fly ball rate, high SIERA and xFIP. Yet, somehow, in exactly half of his 32 starts last year, he went 5 or more innings and held his opponent to 2 or fewer runs. He is 100% not an option for your lineup, but he’s not as consistently bad as his numbers would suggest (and trust me: it’s not fun to stack against a guy this seemingly bad and be left wondering how the heck your lineup managed to do nothing!).
MATCHUP: You are not using Stults on your rosters (or…at least, I hope you are not!).
ASSESSMENT: There are some intriguing right-handed bats on the Mets that are worth strong consideration vs Stults. Also, a Mets stack could be a strong, widely-overlooked play on a slate of games this large!
Jeff Locke – LHP – at Brewers
SPLITS: Locke held lefties to an extremely low .238 wOBA last year. Righties, however, tagged him for a .342 wOBA.
SKILLS: Locke is a decent real-life pitcher, with a 50% ground ball rate and a knack for keeping things from getting out of hand. He is not, however, a good fantasy pitcher, with a low strikeout rate and nothing that indicates this will change – especially not against the Brewers, in Milwaukee!
MATCHUP: The Brewers are stacked with power bats that are desperate to turn things around from their dismal start. Locke is not a strong play.
ASSESSMENT: The right-handed bats on Milwaukee can all be considered – especially Gomez and Lucroy (with Braun and Aramis maybe mixed in) – but I would not go overboard here. Milwaukee stacks tend to always be highly-owned against mid-level pitchers, and while the Brewers could certainly have a big game, you’ll have a much better chance of winning a GPP by creating differentiation with your lineup and stacking elsewhere, then hoping the Brewers stack bombs and you gain an edge on everyone who used them!
Mike Fiers – RHP – v Pirates
SPLITS: Last year, Fiers held both righties and lefties to a wOBA of .240 or lower. Wow!
SKILLS: Fiers is a fly ball pitcher who makes a living pitching in a home run haven. His fastball is about the same speed as Stephen Strasburg’s changeup. And yet, he notched an awesome 27.7% strikeout rate last year in 10 Major League starts down the stretch (after posting a 31.5% rate in 17 AAA starts). And while his 2.13 ERA was almost a full run lower than his SIERA…well, his SIERA was still an excellent 2.94.
MATCHUP: The Pirates really don’t strike out a ton, and the game is in Milwaukee. Furthermore, the Pirates are excellent against right-handed pitchers.
ASSESSMENT: I will not be using Pirates bats today. As for using Fiers? It’s a risk, for sure. It’s an intriguing cash game option, as there are so few places today to get strikeouts, but Fiers is nevertheless an iffy play because of the matchup. Same goes for GPP! To use him or not to use him? That is, indeed, the question.
Brett Anderson – LHP – at Diamondbacks
SPLITS: We’ll go career numbers for Anderson since he’s hurt so frequently. In his career, he has been a reverse splits guy, allowing a .330 wOBA to lefties, but holding righties to a very good .299 wOBA.
SKILLS: Anderson has an absolutely ridiculous ground ball rate (over 60% each of his last two seasons), and he has notched strikeouts at times in his career. He also has respectable SIERA numbers. The knock against Anderson is his health, which does not affect us in daily fantasy.
MATCHUP: The Diamondbacks have a bit of pop, and play in a park that is friendly to home runs, but that should not matter much for Anderson with his super high ground ball rate.
ASSESSMENT: Honestly, Anderson could be a decent way to save salary today on two-pitcher sites, even without the high strikeout numbers. If he can go 7 innings and give up only one or two runs while striking out 5, I’d say you would be pretty happy at his price point.
Chase Anderson – RHP – v Dodgers
SPLITS: Anderson was a reverse splits guy last year in his first journey through Major League lineups, holding lefties to a .314 wOBA, but allowing righties to tag him for a .363 wOBA.
SKILLS: Chase Anderson gave up a lot of home runs last year, but the underlying stats say that there is no reason this should have been the case. Of course, he is a fly ball pitcher, and he does pitch at Chase Field. Those items don’t help. But even taking those items into account, the home runs allowed were high, and you can expect some positive regression there. Outside of that, Anderson has solid strikeout stuff (he had a 21.6% strikeout rate last year), and can hold an opposing lineup in check when he’s on.
MATCHUP: The Dodgers have a very strong lineup, practically from top to bottom.
ASSESSMENT: The other day, when I took the day off of MLB DFS, I texted a buddy to let him know that Adrian Gonzalez is one of the streakiest hitters in baseball. I almost never pay attention to non-quantifiable data such as “streakiness,” but it was almost impossible last year to not notice that Adrian’s home runs seemed to always come in bunches. Because Adrian had already homered two straight days, I suggested to my buddy that he use him. Yeah. Gonzalez went out and hit three more homers that night. I don’t know if he can keep it up, of course, but know that he’s a streaky hitter, he’s locked in, and he’s facing a fly ball pitcher in a home run park. Outside of this, you could go either way here. You could employ Anderson on your teams for the strikeout potential, or you could use a couple Dodgers bats, or you could go all out and stack Dodgers and hope for a big game in the desert!
Jason Vargas – LHP – at Angels
SPLITS: Last year, Vargas held lefties to a .296 wOBA, while allowing only a .321 wOBA to righties.
SKILLS: I think I’ll probably break the RotoGrinders Word Count Record with this article. I’ll keep this one simple. Vargas has a high SIERA, a high fly ball rate, and a low strikeout rate.
MATCHUP: Oh, and he faces the Angels.
ASSESSMENT: The Angels will probably be a popular stack tonight. Trout may touch 40% ownership in cash games. And I can’t necessarily blame those plays (I mean…Trout vs a fly-ball-pitcher lefty? – come on!). But I’m not sure I’ll be on board, either. Vargas is a bad fantasy pitcher, but he has a tendency to somehow keep teams from really getting to him. He did have six starts last year in which he allowed 5 or more earned runs, including one to the Angels…but he also had 19(!) starts last year in which he gave up 2 or fewer earned runs – which is pretty elite (and, yes, one of those came against the Angels as well).
Hector Santiago – LHP – v Royals
SPLITS: Lefties managed only a .274 wOBA vs Santiago last year. He held righties to a .326 wOBA.
SKILLS: Last year, I went from targeting Santiago with hitters early in the year to targeting Santiago in my pitcher slot for a cheap source of Ks late in the year. He’s a fly ball pitcher with league-average strikeout stuff who consistently outperforms his peripherals.
MATCHUP: With that said, the Royals don’t strike out, and they aren’t exactly the type of team you want to go after with a pitcher.
ASSESSMENT: On top of that, Royals bats aren’t exactly the type of bats you want to use (just wait till you use a Royals hitter and he ends up with three sacrifice bunts in a game!). In all, this is a “stay away” for me.
Taijuan Walker – RHP – at Athletics
SPLITS: Lefties managed a .333 wOBA off Walker last year. He held righties to a .229 wOBA. It was a small sample size (38 innings), but that’s indicative of what he can do.
SKILLS: Very few young pitchers in baseball have the skill level Taijuan Walker boasts. The issue, for him, is not skill; the issue is putting it all together. He sometimes struggles with command, and he can be prone to mid-game breakdowns. With that said: he was expected to be back in the minors to start the year, before he ended up giving up only one run in 25 Spring Training innings (while striking out 24 and walking only 4!). Looking for upside today? Here it is!
MATCHUP: The A’s, in theory, work the count and don’t strike out a lot. That’s how Billy Beane builds his teams. But that’s in theory. So far this year, the A’s lineup looks nothing like that “theory.”
ASSESSMENT: On a normal slate (with a couple aces and some other reliable pitchers available), Walker might be a GPP-only play. Today, however – when your options are #4 and #5 pitchers and nothing else – Walker may have the most upside of any pitcher, and his risk is not significantly higher than most other options available.
Drew Pomeranz – LHP – v Mariners
SPLITS: Somehow, Pomeranz held righties to a .259 wOBA last year in 54 total innings against them. This is out of line with his career wOBA allowed to righties of .345. Alternately, his career wOBA allowed to lefties is .243, but it was .300 last year.
SKILLS: Pomeranz has above-average strikeout stuff and above-average ground ball stuff – each of which are great to find on a day of pitchers such as today’s. He can also be inconsistent, and this may not be the best matchup in the world.
MATCHUP: Last year, a strikeout-throwing lefty against the Mariners would be gold. The Mariners have since taken steps to correct that issue (trading for Austin Jackson last year, and signing Nelson Cruz in the offseason), which makes Pomeranz no longer the slam dunk he might have seemed on this slate of games a year ago.
ASSESSMENT: I’m somewhat torn on Pomeranz. I’m not going out of my way to use hitters against him, but I may have a tough time rostering him as well. There aren’t a lot of great options at pitcher today, though, so Pomeranz is definitely among the most appealing available.
Tim Lincecum – RHP – at Padres
SPLITS: Lefties tagged Lincecum for a .335 wOBA last year. Righties were even better, at a .346 mark.
SKILLS: Who even knows anymore. Right? Lincecum on the mound used to be must-watch baseball for me. Nowadays, it’s more cringe-worthy than anything. He can still strike guys out at a league average rate, and he can induce ground balls, but when guys make solid contact against Lincecum these days, it’s really, really solid.
MATCHUP: These are not the Padres of the Lincecum no-hitters. Not even close.
ASSESSMENT: Don’t use him! As for using hitters against him? It pains me to say it, but…yeah. Be my guest. Lincecum always has those few awesome starts stored up in his arm each year, but since those starts are few and far between, targeting him with hitters is a more +EV move here than anything else.
Brandon Morrow – RHP – v Giants
SPLITS: In his career, Morrow has allowed a .325 wOBA to lefties and a .309 wOBA to righties.
SKILLS: Do we even know anymore who Brandon Morrow is? He’s missed most of the last two years with injuries, and his results have been unpredictable. Last year, in 33 innings, he had a 50% ground ball rate – after always being at or below 40% before. His strikeout rate, however, dropped last year to right around league average. He will be facing a National League lineup in a pitcher-friendly park, so that’s a bonus. But it’s still a bit early to say what we really have with Morrow.
MATCHUP: The Giants don’t offer a ton of power (which doesn’t really matter in Petco, anyway!), but they do have pretty solid bats from top to bottom.
ASSESSMENT: I won’t be using Morrow (though I wouldn’t blame you if you did!). But I probably won’t be using bats against him, either.
That’s it.
I’ve typed enough.
You don’t get a clever outro from me today. Swing for the fences, or something like that.
See you on Twitter (JMToWin). And see you back here on Sunday!