JMToWin's MLB Edge Preview: Friday, April 17th
Each Tuesday & Friday this MLB Season, the legendary JMtoWin (2014 DK WBC Atlantis Finalist, 2014 DSBC Finalist x2) will bring you premium DFS MLB analysis like no one else in the industry can. A top-tier Grinder, and a professional writer, FD & DK subscribers can expect only the best quality throughout MLB season. Check out a sample of JMtoWin’s work from this NFL season here.
Wait…What? All The Arms Have Disappeared!
I started putting together an intro that aimed to explore what the heck has been going on lately with starting pitching. I compiled these lines from the last four days alone from pitchers you had to pay a premium for:
Jordan Zimmermann v Red Sox: 2.1 IP, 9 hits, 8 runs, 7 earned runs, 1 walk, 0 strikeouts – no win
Adam Wainwright v Brewers: 7 IP, 8 hits, 5 runs, 3 earned runs, 1 walk, 4 strikeouts – no win
Jon Lester v Reds: 6 IP, 10 hits 6 runs, 6 earned runs, 0 walks, 4 strikeouts – no win
Stephen Strasburg v Red Sox: 5.1 IP, 10 hits, 5 runs, 5 earned runs, 0 walks, 5 strikeouts – no win
Hisashi Iwakuma v Dodgers: 5 IP, 6 hits, 4 runs, 4 earned runs, 3 walks, 5 strikeouts – no win
Jake Arrieta v Reds: 6.2 IP, 7 hits, 3 runs, 3 earned runs, 1 walk, 5 strikeouts – no win
Gio Gonzalez v Red Sox: 6 IP, 6 hits, 5 runs, 4 earned runs, 2 walks, 6 strikeouts – win
Cole Hamels v Nationals: 6 IP, 5 hits, 5 runs, 5 earned runs, 4 walks, 7 strikeouts – no win
Madison Bumgarner v Diamondbacks: 7 IP, 6 hits, 4 runs, 4 earned runs, 1 walk, 4 strikeouts – no win
I started researching the reasons why we have been seeing what we have been seeing (this list, of course, does not even include Kershaw’s poor line six days ago, and may even miss a few lines I failed to notice as I was going through the last four days!), and while I found some interesting stuff (such as: take a look at Madison Bumgarner’s start to the season the last two years; Cole Hamels, too; neither guy really seems to round into form until mid-May or even early June!), I certainly was not able to find anything definitive enough to put into this article – nothing that would be more than “guesswork.” Nothing that I could say, with 100% certainty, will help you (and me!) do a better job selecting pitchers moving forward, in order for us to stop having to rely so heavily on bats!
Of course, in tournaments, it’s not quite as big of a deal that so many top pitchers have been pitching poorly lately. In fact, it may even be a good thing for you, as you have perhaps been purposely targeting low-owned pitchers, and have therefore been flying past all these high-owned guys as a result. But in cash games, where pitchers are supposed to be your safest source of production, we need to make sure we are doing everything we can to figure out how to predict pitching – especially when the “obvious plays” are not going well.
And so, a few more thoughts (since I have already spent a couple hours on researching all this and still can’t find anything definitive to provide!)…
1) Matchup matters. Yesterday, I made the mistake of ignoring this knowledge, and I picked Cole Hamels against the Nationals instead of taking Doug Fister against the Phillies. When your option is a high-priced, high-K guy against a very good lineup that is unlikely to strike out a lot (I say “unlikely to” because the Nats have high-K numbers to start the year, but given their lineup, that is unlikely to remain the case), or a moderate-priced, moderate-K guy who has very good stuff outside of strikeouts and is facing a poor, high-K lineup (a pitcher, that is to say, who would have to really come out without his best stuff to give up a bunch of runs, and who is likely to get more strikeouts than normal given the matchup), it’s almost always better to go with the lower-priced option. Notice the teams that have given pitchers poor performances in the list above: The Red Sox three times, the Reds twice, the Brewers, the Nationals, and the Dodgers. The only team that doesn’t really seem to fit on the list is the Diamondbacks, but they also gave Kershaw his bad outing last week, so maybe we need to start taking them a bit more seriously as well. (We also think of the Reds as a lineup to target, because they were last year, but with Hamilton hitting well, Votto healthy, and Frazier behind him – followed by Bruce and Phillips – that’s an order that can do some damage when they’re hitting well.) Another tough element, in this area, is that we are not deep enough into the season to truly know which lineups are the “lineups to target.” Keep a close eye on the data as the season progresses, and you’ll keep having a better idea!
2) Some of the pitchers on the list above are overpriced to begin with. Look at Gio Gonzalez’ 2014 season. Look at his game logs. Is he a good pitcher? Sure! Is he a guy you will feel comfortable paying a high price tag for? Most days, I’d say no. The same goes for Zimmermann (who rarely goes over 100 pitches, and rarely goes 7 innings as a result; and I know a lot of other top MLB DFSers like Zimmermann a lot, but personally, I almost never have him on my rosters). Strasburg away from home? No thanks! (Especially not against the Red Sox!) And while Wainwright is still a tremendous real-life pitcher, I truly do not think we’ll ever see him being the consistent-high-K guy he once was (if he were priced like Fister yesterday, I’d be all over him; priced like a high-K ace, though? – yeah…). As for Lester? Well…is he really an ace? He’s had one ace-like season (last year) in his career. Maybe we need to temper expectations there a bit.
3) Things will get easier! Firstly, all these guys will pitch better than this during this season, and will get into a groove where they are pitching well consistently. Secondly, we will start to gather more data on the lineups that are truly worth targeting with pitchers. Thirdly, we’ll soon have a better idea of which low-priced pitchers (well…low-priced for now) have truly taken the next step and can be relied on consistently. Fourthly (perhaps most importantly!), we’ll soon have true aces to choose from every day – as off days and rotation shakeups will soon clear up this cluster of “Opening Day Starters” who are all available on the same DFS slate (example: today, with Kershaw, Scherzer, Price, Kluber, Cueto, Samardzija, Shields, Teheran, and Gray all pitching on the same day).
Hang in there, and soon you’ll be getting those 25- to 30-point pitching performances you are seeking (and are sometimes paying up for!).
In the meantime, keep doing what you can do each day; keep making smart decisions, and keep praying that your bats keep you afloat on those days your arms desert you!
Continue Reading JMtoWin’s feature: FanDuel Members or DraftKings Members
Take Your Game to the Next Level!
Each Tuesday & Friday this MLB Season, the legendary JMtoWin (2014 DK WBC Atlantis Finalist, 2014 DSBC Finalist x2) will bring you premium DFS MLB analysis like no one else in the industry can.
