JMToWin's MLB Edge: Tuesday, April 7th
Each Tuesday & Friday this MLB Season, the legendary JMtoWin (2014 DK WBC Atlantis Finalist, 2014 DSBC Finalist x2) will bring you premium DFS MLB analysis like no one else in the industry can. A top-tier Grinder, and a professional writer, FD & DK subscribers can expect only the best quality throughout MLB season. Check out a sample of JMtoWin’s work from this NFL season here.
Editor’s Note: This column will soon only be available for DraftKings and FanDuel incentives subscribers. Enjoy our free preview period – here’s a taste of what you’ll get!
MLB Edge: You Didn’t Forget About Me!
Hey, you didn’t forget about me!
I know it sounds funny – but really, that means a lot to me.
Maybe I shouldn’t be surprised. A lot of you seemed to really enjoy my NFL articles, and football finished just a few months ago. Why should you have forgotten about me, right? But we all have other things going on in our lives. It’s not as though DFS is the primary priority in our minds most days (I mean…okay, it is – but in theory, it’s not), and it’s not as though I’m dropping ridiculously valuable knowledge on you every single day like Notorious does, so I don’t exactly stay in your minds in that way. So, really, it means a lot to me that so many of you commented to tell me how much you enjoyed my NFL articles, and/or that you were hoping I would be writing for MLB. It means a lot to me that I was not forgotten.
You know what else was not forgotten? My ability to play MLB DFS.
I was a bit concerned – I’ll be honest. Baseball season ended a long time ago, and a lot of DFS strategy and study has taken place since then in other sports, pushing MLB to the back of my brain. I was worried it would take me a little while to remember what I knew about MLB players and strategy. I figured it might be a week or two before I felt comfortable riding in this saddle once more.
That was not the case. Three cheers for that. (Cheer! Cheer! Cheer!)
Day 1 of baseball season was good to me (in fact, in Day 1 alone, I hit my “profit goal” for the entire month!), and I’m going to carry that over to Day 2. Feel free to ride the wave with me!
Today (as I mentioned on Sunday would be the case), we have a chance to explore DFS together through a more traditional article, in which I will be giving you my thoughts on today’s specific slate of games (as opposed to those Sunday articles, which – in case you missed this last Sunday’s – will be more focused on providing you with thoughts on strategy, and with notes on some of the recent MLB player trends you can look to take advantage of in the week ahead!). Before we get to my specific thoughts on this specific slate of games, however, I want to mention a few important things.
FIRST IMPORTANT THING: I have not forgotten you! It may seem like I have, because I did not respond to any of the comments on Sunday’s article. Usually, I make an effort to respond to all comments in order for all of us to stay connected, but as Sunday was Easter (and I was with family all day), and Sunday night was taken up with my preparation for Monday’s slate of games (followed by being unable to sleep well all night, as I was so excited for baseball to be starting again; and no, that’s not a joke – that really happened), I was not able to hop on and keep up with all of you in the comments. A quick reminder on that: the comments on these articles usually go back a couple pages, and by the time I get an opportunity to respond, my comments are usually on Page 2 or 3 of the comments; as such, if you ask a specific question in the comments, always climb deeper into the comments pages to find my response before complaining to everyone you know that I’m a “butt-hole meany,” and that I didn’t respond to your comment!).
Because I did not get a chance to respond in the comments section on Sunday, here is my response to some of the questions that were asked (or, where warranted, to some of the statements that were made)…
Jaws1002: The best places to research stats, in my opinion, are Fangraphs and Baseball Reference.
mgovas: Did I make more in baseball or football? Even though football provides only 17 slates all season (compared to about 180 for baseball!), I was actually in shape – about 2/3 of the way through the NFL season – to make even more from football than I did from baseball. The last few weeks of the NFL season were full of misplays and instances of “just barely not making the cut for cashing” on my part, however, so MLB remained my profit king.
fightingirish980: Numbers nerdiness is part of what makes MLB such a beautiful DFS sport! Basically any place where you can find stats is a good place to go – but, again, in my opinion, Fangraphs is the boss, with Baseball Reference a great resource as well. Additionally, RotoGrinders compiles tons of information from Fangraphs (and other sites) that you would otherwise have to search out yourself (check out the Tools section for some of this stuff).
Mangle54: Do I get a cut of that $10k you won in NFL off of the help my articles provided? (I kid, I kid. Now, let’s do the same thing with MLB!)
collinman005: You think you are my worst freaking nightmare? You’re wrong – your raspberry lemonade is my worst freaking nightmare! I was lying when I said I liked it. Also, your house is too loud.
bostonboca: Good to see you again! Stacks in cash games? Honestly, I don’t see stacking as a poor strategy at all in cash games. The only issue, of course, is spreading risk. For example: on Opening Day, the most obvious “sure thing, cash game stack” would have been the Brewers against Kyle Kendrick. Which would not have worked out too well. This is, of course, why the idea of taking players from a bunch of different teams seems to reign supreme for cash game players. It’s all about preference, honestly, though. Statistically speaking, stacking in cash games is not necessarily any riskier than the traditional cash game approach (assuming, of course, you are properly identifying the “safest stack of the day” each day).
SECOND IMPORTANT THING: I use a lot of parentheses in my writing. (As if you needed me to tell you that.) One thing that’s always weird to me, though, is those places where a colon is warranted…after a closed parentheses. Example: above, where I said “(or, where warranted, to some of the statements that were made)” – after that, I put an ellipsis (…), but really, a colon was warranted. The reason I did not use a colon? It would have looked like a frowny face. See: ): That’s why I use an ellipsis sometimes in those instances, even though a colon is what actually belongs there. (How about that for nerdiness?)
THIRD IMPORTANT THING: I need a name for this article series! Every Tuesday and Friday (as I’ve told you, like, five times already), I’ll be breaking down that specific day’s slate of games. Because the purpose behind these Tuesday and Friday articles will be the same every single week (that purpose being: to help you make money off that day’s slate of games!), we need to brand the article in some way. The Talented Mr. Roto has his Love/Hate. The Talented Mr. Noto has the Grind Down. What does The Guy Who Doesn’t Have Talented In His Name choose to call this Tuesday/Friday offering? Right now, I’m rolling with “MLB Edge,” but I think we may be able to do better. Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated!
FOURTH IMPORTANT THING: I’m going to start playing some head to heads on DraftKings most days! I’ll probably stick, for the most part, to the $1 and $5 level so I don’t price myself out of anyone’s range (I prefer large-field double-ups to head-to-heads, so I’m really just going the head-to-head route for the fun opportunity it provides for all of us to compete against one another!). Because my username is pretty much in the middle of everything alphabetically, however, I’ll probably get skipped over by plenty of people who are picking up head to heads. As such, feel free to search me out any day you want – we can clash over $1 or $5 and see what happens throughout the season!
FIFTH (and final) IMPORTANT THING: I haven’t really been on Twitter since football ended, but I’ll be hopping back on there now that MLB is in full swing. Find me on there – JMToWin. I’ll be using Twitter to share player thoughts and strategy thoughts, and to answer questions.
And now: let’s get to it! Let’s provide you with an MLB Edge on today’s slate of games:
4/7/15 – AN INTRO TO TODAY’S SLATE:
One of the main things I want to do with this article every Tuesday and Friday is give you a unique perspective you cannot get from other articles (after all, why should you read this article if you can find the same information anywhere else?). As such, the actual presentation of the slate-specific content may look very different from one Tuesday or Friday to the next. Feel free to let me know which article presentations you enjoy the most and find most useful (as with NFL: if an overwhelming majority of readers prefer a specific format – as was the case during NFL, when most people vocally preferred the game-by-game breakdown – I’ll skew more heavily toward that), but regardless of the presentation, the purpose will remain the same in each article: to provide you with a unique take (and a unique edge) on that day’s slate that you will not be able to find in any other article.
Today – in keeping with the idea I presented to you on Sunday (that breaking down pitching is the foundation for choosing both pitchers AND hitters in MLB DFS) – I am going to be breaking things down by pitchers. I’ll dig into each pitcher a bit, and I’ll let you know what each pitcher’s outlook means for your roster construction!
BREAKING DOWN TODAY’S PITCHERS:
We-Yin Chen – LHP – at Rays
SPLITS: For three consecutive years, lefties have had exactly a .298 wOBA off Chen. Righties chipped in a .326 wOBA vs Chen last year, with a .329 mark over his career.
SKILLS: Chen doesn’t really strike out anyone. He doesn’t really walk anyone, either. He doesn’t really give up a ton of runs, but he doesn’t really shut anyone down. Really, he is about as boring as they come!
MATCHUP: Although the Rays seem to have something of a makeshift lineup (I don’t want to make any completely concrete assessments of any lineups until we see how things come together and how these teams are performing), Chen is unlikely to really take advantage of the opportunity they provide. As a guy who pitches to contact, he’s best left off your rosters.
ASSESSMENT: Can you use hitters against Chen? Absolutely! I never like the idea of stacking against Chen, as he almost never has a game in which he falls apart (he had only three starts all year last year in which he gave up 5 runs, and he had no starts in which he gave up more). He is, however, a fly ball pitcher, and this makes a fly ball hitter (particularly one from the right side of the plate who has a history of power against lefties…like, say, Longoria) a solid addition to your lineups, and a strong cash game play.
Nate Karns – RHP – v Orioles
SPLITS: Last year, in AAA, Karns gave up a .777 OPS to righties and a .684 OPS to lefties. In 2013, in AA, his splits vs righties and lefties were about the same as one another (right around .700). (We’re looking at OPS here instead of wOBA, because that’s what we can collect for minor league stats! Still, OPS is often surprisingly reflective of wOBA , with a .777 OPS allowed being pretty poor, and an OPS of right around .700 being okay, but really neither good nor bad.)
SKILLS: I’m intrigued. Karns’ Major League numbers in five career starts are pretty ugly, but part of that is bad luck (such as a 30% HR/FB rate, when league average is around 10%!). In the minors (where he has had some ugly numbers as well, to be honest), his strikeout numbers have looked solid (28% K% in AA, 24.5% in AAA), and this Orioles lineup is hurting a little bit right now with Hardy and Wieters out. He’s a risky play – no question about it – but he’s not a bad play at all.
MATCHUP: The Orioles do not have a bad lineup. However, they do not have a full-strength lineup either. They could crush Karns, but they could also get shut down by him.
ASSESSMENT: I would not touch Karns in cash games. Not until we see a bit more of him. But as a guy with strikeout potential, pitching at home against a team that is missing some key bats, he’s worth a flier in a GPP lineup or two! Alternately: Yes, you can absolutely use hitters against Karns. And yes, you can absolutely stack vs Karns in GPPs! Maybe you’ll come away shaking your head and wondering how he shut down your whole team…but maybe, instead, you’ll be celebrating the big night they had knocking around this dude who may not be ready for the big-time stage.
Alex Wood – LHP – at Marlins
SPLITS: Wood held righties to a .299 wOBA last year. He was even better against lefties, keeping them to a .288 wOBA.
SKILLS: Combine a 24.5% strikeout rate with a 45.9% ground ball rate, throw in a 6.5% walk rate, and you have a very, very solid pitcher. I’m a big fan of Wood (heck, I used him in DraftKings’ million dollar tournament in Atlantis last year!), and his ERA indicators show that last year was not a fluke.
MATCHUP: The Marlins have their fair share of righty bats, but their catalysts are Dee Gordon and Christian Yelich at the top of the lineup, each of whom are lefties. Not that it necessarily matters which side of the plate someone is hitting from against Wood, but it’s worth noting that he’ll benefit from a lefty/lefty matchup at the top of the order – and, frankly, he’s a good enough pitcher to shut down this entire lineup.
ASSESSMENT: A win may be tough to come by in this game (especially with what passes for an offense for the Braves), and the Marlins are not exactly an easy lineup to face. But they’re not the Angels or Tigers, either, and Wood is definitely among the top options on the day. As for targeting hitters against him? I’d go as far as Stanton (especially on a day with so much cheap pitching you’ll basically be forced to pay up for a number of hitters), but that’s about it.
Mat Latos – RHP – vs Braves
SPLITS: Last year, Latos held lefties to a .271 wOBA and righties to a .306 wOBA.
SKILLS: It’s tough, really, because you want to assume Latos is a great play against this humorous lineup. But last year, Latos had his fly ball rate go up, while his velocity and K% went down. Not good! If he’s not a good bet for strikeouts, he’s not going to be very easy to rely on.
MATCHUP: But…boy, oh boy, is this matchup ever appetizing! If you choose to use Latos in cash games (or even tourneys) and hope for some strikeouts, I won’t blame you. But it’s a tough call for me.
ASSESSMENT: Latos is a risky play, even against the Braves, as there is really no indication he’s set to turn things around in the strikeout department. As for using hitters against him? I’d say it would have to be as an extremely contrarian GPP stack; it would be tough to go near this lineup in cash games.
Editor’s Note: Cardinals at Cubs has been postponed due to inclement weather.
Lance Lynn – RHP – at Cubs
SPLITS: Last year, Lynn allowed a 3.14 wOBA to lefties and a 2.84 wOBA to righties. Each of those are solid (if not-exactly-spectacular) numbers.
SKILLS: If you still think of Lynn as an above-average K guy, it’s time to let go of that notion. He came into the league as a guy who couldn’t retire left-handed hitters and racked up a lot of strikeouts. After altering his approach to left-handed hitters last year – learning to induce more weak contact by changing the pitches he uses vs lefties – Lynn became a more dependable real-life starter. He also, however, saw his K% drop to right around league average. With that said, he’s a very solid starter who induces ground balls or infield flies on more than 55% of at-bats. He could still stand to cut down on the walks a bit (he carries a non-elite 8.6% BB% throughout his career), but that shouldn’t be a major issue against the aggressive Cubs lineup. His 2.74 ERA last year is deceptive (his SIERA and xFIP – each of which, essentially, indicate what a pitcher’s ERA should have been – were both right around 3.80), but he’s not a bad option in general.
MATCHUP: The Cubs still bring a lot of strikeout potential to the table – but not nearly as much as they did last year, as they have added a few new pieces, and their pieces from last year (most of them highly-talented, but somewhat raw youngsters) have continued to mature. They are a matchup that could yield some solid lines to pitchers, but that could also destroy some pitchers’ days.
ASSESSMENT: I see Lynn as being more a pitcher to avoid using hitters against than a pitcher to use on your lineups. That assessment comes with the following caveat: he can notch some high-strikeout games, and the Cubs are a team against which he could get those strikeouts. In all, however, I don’t quite like his ceiling enough to tout him as a tournament play, and I don’t quite like his K numbers enough to push him as a cash game play.
Editor’s Note: Cardinals at Cubs has been postponed due to inclement weather.
Jake Arrieta – RHP – v Cardinals
SPLITS: Lefties had a minuscule .251 wOBA off Arrieta last year. Righties had an even more minuscule .234 wOBA off him. Wow!
SKILLS: Steamer’s season projections see Arrieta turning into something between the pitcher he was with the Orioles (a disappointment) and the pitcher he was last year with the Cubs (a revelation). With that said, it is worth noting that Arrieta did not “simply get lucky” last year; instead, his SIERA and xFIP both pointed to a sub-3 ERA. After changing his approach in the offseason, Arrieta turned in an excellent 49% ground ball rate last year, along with an elite 27% strikeout rate. I do have a soft spot for him, as I identified him as an elite play (rather than a fluke) before most other DFSers did, and was therefore able to use him at a discount with low ownership % for a decent chunk of the season last year – so, sure, take my thoughts with a grain of salt. But I still think it’s a pretty accurate assessment!
MATCHUP: Frustratingly, the Cardinals are pretty darn close to the Royals in the race of “teams you don’t really love using a pitcher against,” as they are adamant, as an organization, about putting the ball in play. This lowers the strikeout ceiling of someone like Arrieta. Furthermore, facing Lynn makes a win for Arrieta a tossup, rather than something you can bank on.
ASSESSMENT: Can you use Arrieta? Absolutely. I think he’s a safe cash game play. Even though he is unlikely to hit his normal strikeout ceiling against the Cardinals, he is also unlikely to have a game that hurts you. I don’t love him for tournaments, simply because of the price and matchup (relative to other prices and matchups on the day), but he’s certainly a safe play. Can you use hitters against him? I would only do so in tournaments if you want to go all out and stack the Cardinals for contrarian purposes.
Jordan Lyles – RHP – at Brewers
SPLITS: Lyles gave up a pretty massive .372 wOBA vs lefties last year. He gave up a very solid .290 wOBA to righties. One item worth noting: his elite ground ball rate became less elite vs lefties…but it still came in at 46%, which is not exactly the sort of ground ball rate that makes you feel good about using guys against him.
SKILLS: “Hey, JM, how do you feel about Jordan Lyles?” “Meh.” That about sums up my feelings about this guy. Remember when I said Chen doesn’t strike out anyone? This guy REALLY doesn’t strike out anyone. He induces a lot of ground balls (an elite level of ground balls, honestly), and although he walks some guys and gives up some hits, he doesn’t really allow those counting stats you want to grab from hitters.
MATCHUP: The Brewers have a great offense. And Lyles is not a great pitcher. Simple does it.
ASSESSMENT: He gets no strikeouts. You really can’t use him on your lineup. It’s as simple as that. As for using hitters against him? Well, he had 12 starts away from Coors Field last year; he gave up 5 runs once, 4 runs once, and 3 or fewer runs the other 10 times. If that appeals to you, be my guest, but I can’t imagine stacking against him even as a contrarian play.
Matt Garza – RHP – v Rockies
SPLITS: Garza held batters from both the right and left side of the plate to a wOBA under .300 last year: .285 for lefties, and .289 for righties.
SKILLS: Garza is no longer a solid bet for strikeouts. In fact, he is now a below-average strikeout pitcher, with a K% of 18.5% last year. His velocity has dropped, his strikeout rate has correspondingly dropped three straight years, and he really just doesn’t do anything to make you want to use him on your roster…especially not against the Rockies.
MATCHUP: Have you looked at the Rockies lineup? Yeah. Even away from Coors Field, they can beast.
ASSESSMENT: I will not be using Garza on any teams. As for using hitters against him? Look, it’s Day 2 of the season, and everyone (absent of those teams with injuries, of course) is throwing their #2 starter out there. That means there are very few “bad” pitchers to pick on today. There are, however, pitchers worse than Garza to pick on. He’s a disappointment in the eyes of most of us because he never reached his full potential…but he’s still a solid pitcher (one who generally goes 6 or 7 innings, and generally keeps runs down), so while he’s definitely a guy you could target with a contrarian stack, he’s not a guy I’d go out of my way to use hitters against.
Ryan Vogelsong – RHP – at Diamondbacks
SPLITS: Vogelsong gave up a .346 wOBA to lefties last year. His wOBA allowed to righties was .301. He also pitched FAR worse on the road last year than he pitched at home.
SKILLS: Speaking of “below-#2-starter” pitchers pitching because of injuries…Vogelsong is never really a great option to use on your DFS team, even with the low price. You see, one element of targeting a low-priced player in DFS is that you want them to have the potential to put up a big game for you – a potential Vogelsong does not really have, as he barely approaches league strikeout rates, and hovers at a SIERA/xFIP right around 4.00. He does have the ability to get knocked around a bit, making him an intriguing option to stack the Diamondbacks against, but as for using him on your roster? Naw – I think I’ll pass.
MATCHUP: Doesn’t matter. Vogelsong does not possess the strikeout stuff to make him an intriguing option to me regardless of matchup.
ASSESSMENT: As I was typing this, Jake Lamb ripped a deep, three-run double off Sergio Romo in a pinch-hit appearance for the Diamondbacks. Lamb was one of my favorite underpriced young players to use last year, and he’ll fill that same role for me this year vs right-handed pitchers (until the pricing algorithms get wise to my shenanigans!). Do you see where I’m going with this? I like the DBacks as a potentially low-owned stack (one that would be inexpensive, to boot), but I’m not going out of my way to use DBacks righties in cash games. Lefties on the DBacks are a different story, though! Jake Lamb and David Peralta (another one of my favorite young, underpriced guys to use last year – with his combination of power and speed) are both very attractive options in cash games and tourneys alike.
Rubby De La Rosa – RHP – v Giants
SPLITS: Last year, De La Rosa gave up a .364 wOBA to lefties and a .348 wOBA to righties. His career numbers aren’t much better.
SKILLS: Last year, I was at Fenway Park to watch De La Rosa’s first start of the season for Boston: 7 innings pitched, 4 hits allowed, 0 earned runs, and 8 strikeouts. That was fun. In 17 more starts, however, De La Rosa went 7 full innings only four more times, and he notched 8 strikeouts only one more time. He also had 6 starts (out of 18 total!) in which he failed to reach 5 innings. Yeah. His strikeout rate was 16.8% – incredibly disappointing considering how good his stuff can be – and while he has a solid ground ball rate (46.3% in his career), he combines this with too many walks (9.3% career BB%).
MATCHUP: Doesn’t matter. De La Rosa may have one or two shutdown performances this year, but I don’t want to try to predict when those will be (not unless he starts showing something he hasn’t shown to date).
ASSESSMENT: If you are looking for a lineup to stack, the Giants are a solid one to consider – especially considering the fact that the game is in Arizona (a hitter’s park), and the fact that De La Rosa is equally generous to righties and lefties. If you are looking for players to use in cash games, Giants hitters (especially the lefties) are equally intriguing.
Tyson Ross – RHP – at Dodgers
SPLITS: Ross is not much fun for hitters. Last year, he held righties to a .286 wOBA. Lefties only improved on that to the tune of .289.
SKILLS: Let’s settle here for a moment before we talk about the matchup, okay? Let’s focus, just for a moment, strictly on skill. Skill? Strikeouts – check! Ross had a strong 24% K% last year (23.6% the year before). Ground balls – check! Ross had an unbelievable 57% ground ball rate last year (54.9% the year before). ERA predictors – check! SIERA and xFIP each have him as a pitcher whose ERA should hover right around 3.00. Consistency? – meh…he does throw up more duds than you’d like, but this does keep his price down, and his strong games can be really excellent.
MATCHUP: This is where things get tricky. This is a very solid lineup, top to bottom, that the Dodgers have. You also have to consider that Ross has traditionally been much better at home (.243 wOBA allowed at PetCo last year; .330 allowed away from home).
ASSESSMENT: Ross makes for an intriguing option, but he is not as much of a slam dunk as he would be against a lesser lineup, at home. I would still give him strong consideration for your lineups…but also, realize that he does have the ability to throw in a dud sometimes, especially away from home. Consider a low-owned Dodgers stack in GPPs. Hey, chances are it won’t pay off…but if it does, you’ll be getting points no one else is getting, and you’ll be in great shape to cash for big money as a result.
Zack Greinke – RHP – v Padres
SPLITS: Good luck, Padres! Last year, Greinke held lefties to a .277 wOBA. In his career, he’s held righties to a wOBA below .300 as well. (Worth noting: his career wOBA allowed to lefties is .325, but keep in mind that Greinke is known for constantly adjusting his game, so it is likely that the suppressed lefty stats against him are more a result of adjustments Greinke has made than a result of flukiness).
SKILLS: Greinke jumped his K% back up last year (going from 20.6% to 25.2%!), and he cut his BB% back down to 5.2%. His ground ball rate has been around 48% for three consecutive seasons, and because he is overshadowed by Kershaw, he can often be had at a nice little discount.
MATCHUP: With all of that said…we saw on Opening Day against Kershaw that this is (as I pointed out in Sunday’s article!) not last year’s Padres lineup. There are still strikeouts to be found on the Padres revamped lineup…but there are also a lot more places where a pitcher can get in trouble.
ASSESSMENT: Greinke is a strong play – but like Tyson Ross, he is not as strong of a play as he would be in a better matchup. Furthermore, he’s something of a tossup for a win today, which could hurt you a bit if you roster him and he doesn’t pick up those extra points. Greinke does not have the blowup potential Ross has that makes the latter an intriguing “contrarian stack against” target (Greinke only had ONE game all year last year in which he gave up 4 or more runs at Dodger Stadium), so I’m certainly not going out of my way to use Padres hitters. But I don’t see Greinke as a slam dunk, must-play guy at pitcher, either.
Colby Lewis – RHP – at A’s
SPLITS: Wow! Lefties had a .373 wOBA against Lewis last year. Righties had a .355 wOBA.
SKILLS: Hello, old friend! Colby Lewis was one of my favorite pitchers to target last year (uh…by “target,” I don’t mean use him on my rosters; I mean “target” as in, “set up that target and I’ll take shots at it” (yes, I know I used “target” as a verb at first, and as a noun in the example; cut me some slack, okay!) – or, as in, “look, Colby Lewis is starting – let me use hitters against him!”). His strikeout rate was not awful (17.5%), but with a combined line drive and fly ball rate over 66%, he’s always a threat to see the ball leave the park.
MATCHUP: Doesn’t matter. I will not be using Lewis on any rosters.
ASSESSMENT: Because Lewis keeps the walks down, and because his ultra-high FB% means fewer hits, he has the ability to throw up a zero (or, I should say, to hold his opponent under 4 runs), making him less of a sure bet to stack against than it might, at times, seem. Also, it can be dangerous to pick and choose hitters against him in cash games, as he can be something of a “home run or nothing” pitcher. With that said: if you stack against Colby Lewis enough times over the course of a season, you’ll have plenty of high-scoring days!
Jesse Hahn – RHP – v Rangers
SPLITS: Although it was a somewhat small sample size (73 Major League innings in all), Hahn held lefties to an impressive .291 wOBA, and righties to an equally impressive .278 wOBA.
SKILLS: Oh, man! – I love me some Jesse Hahn! Hahn is just simply a fun pitcher to watch. Hahn was also my ticket to Atlantis last year for DraftKings’ million dollar tournament (it was Hahn’s second Major League start; his minor league numbers really stood out to me, and I had watched his first Major League start, in which he gave up a couple home runs to the Pirates but otherwise looked very impressive; I used him in the Qualifier in his second career start at a massive discount, and I got a bunch of points that nearly no one else got). Injuries ended his season early last year (or did the Padres just choose to shut him down? – crap, I can’t remember!), but with a solid 22.9% K% and an excellent 50.3% ground ball rate, Hahn is very attractive at his low early-season price.
MATCHUP: The Rangers seem to still lack punch in their lineup. I don’t want to make premature assessments that I’ll have to backtrack on later, but for now, I still very much see the Rangers as a lineup worth targeting with solid pitchers.
ASSESSMENT: Honestly, I expect Hahn to be low-owned. His low price will automatically make a lot of people assume he’s a poor play, and he is just generally a guy who gets overlooked by a lot of DFSers. That makes him an excellent GPP option, given his upside, but it also could make him a slightly riskier cash game option. If he were going to be 50% owned in cash games, you could use him with very little fear, knowing you’d stick with a large portion of the pack if he had a bad game. But if he’s under 10% owned, a bad game from him could really hurt you. Ultimately, I’d say don’t let predicted ownership percentage be a deciding factor (it’s just a guess, after all) – but do take it into account. He should be a solid bet for a win, however, and I’d say 6 innings, 6 strikeouts, and under 2 runs allowed is a pretty safe projection.
C.J. Wilson – LHP – at Mariners
SPLITS: Wilson held lefties to an excellent .266 wOBA last year, but righties tagged him to the tune of a .345 wOBA.
SKILLS: ERA predictors (SIERA and xFIP) have Wilson sitting at an ERA over 4.00. Although his strikeout rate is still decent (19.8% last year – projected at 19.4% by Steamer for this year), his BB% remains a problem (11.2% last year; 10% in his career). His ground ball rate still sits at a sturdy 48%, but he’s simply not a pitcher who is pitching well enough these days to match his reputation.
MATCHUP: The ballpark, obviously, is great for him, but the lineup he is facing is not. Wilson certainly benefits from the fact that the Mariners are a lefty-heavy lineup, but that’s not enough to make me want to use him.
ASSESSMENT: I will not be using Wilson on my rosters today; if you choose to risk him against this lefty-heavy lineup, however, I would not blame you. Certainly, there is merit to using hitters against him, but the lefty-heavy nature of the Mariners lineup also makes them a somewhat poor candidate for a profitable stack.
James Paxton – LHP – v Angels
SPLITS: Lefties managed a measly .251 wOBA off Paxton last year. Righties didn’t do a whole lot better, putting up only a .281 wOBA.
SKILLS: I really like Paxton a lot. His 19.5% K% is a bit lower than you’d really love to use, and his 9.6% BB% last year is an issue, but his 54.8% ground ball rate is excellent, and his stuff can be downright nasty.
MATCHUP: It’s the Angels. You know what you’re getting from them: a very solid lineup that can cause issues for a pitcher.
ASSESSMENT: My hope, honestly, is that Paxton has a decently rough outing so that fewer people will use him in his next couple starts. That would give the rest of us an edge, as he has shutdown potential. I don’t think I can risk using Paxton in this tough of a matchup, but he definitely has the stuff to shut down any lineup when he’s on. As for using hitters against him? Hey, the Angels have a lot of righties! It could be a sneaky contrarian stack if Paxton throws up a dud, but I doubt I’ll be going there, either.
That’s all for today! I think I’ll break down pitchers again for Friday’s article, then we’ll shake things up next week (perhaps going position by position and looking at my favorite plays!). Ultimately, the goal in these articles is not to “give you fish,” so to speak, but is instead to “teach you how to fish” – showing you some of the ways in which you can profitably compile information and make quality roster decisions.
Until next time!
As for today: “There’s nothing like a bad bunt, so swing away!” (That conclusion is courtesy of FiveStarCo; trying it on for size today!)
And, of course, be sure to let me know in the comments your ideas for a name for this article series! Is “MLB Edge” a solid title, or is there a way we can improve?
See you on Twitter (JMToWin).
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See you on Friday. (Don’t forget about me!)