JMToWin's NFL Edge: Week 11

Each week this NFL season, JMToWin will break down every game on the NFL slate from top to bottom, with a look at game flow, player matchups, coaching tendencies, DFS strategy, and anything else that shows up in his research that might give you an edge on the slate. Widely regarded as the most in-depth, DFS-specific article in the industry, this top-to-bottom breakdown is just what you need in order to conquer the slate and take home money each week!

Week 10 In Review

What a weird week we had!

Hopefully you survived – but I strongly encourage you to not get too down on your play, and to not adjust too drastically, if Week 10 went poorly for you. It was a strange week, with plenty of outlier occurrences – and with plenty of “best plays” that simply did not pan out.

At the same time, there were lessons to be learned. For yet another week, we saw a high-end player with locked-in usage (Mark Ingram) bounce back from a poor week…and draw minuscule ownership for literally no reason other than recency bias. As I said in this article last week: If you had been playing Ingram lately, there was every reason to play him again in Week 10. We should continue to keep an eye out for situations like this (I believe this is three consecutive weeks in which we have uncovered exactly one such situation in this article). Sometimes, a chalky player bombs because he should not have been chalk in the first place, and we should move away from that guy in future weeks. But we probably get 10 or 15 instances each season in which an elite play bombs simply due to variance…and everyone jumps off that play the next week.

I didn’t end up using Ingram on my main team. (As is usually the case, I had over 90% of my investment on a single team – though as most of you have heard me say over the years, I build around 80 to 100 teams throughout the week, messing around with thoughts and ideas, as I hunt for my “main team.” Most weeks, I throw those extra teams into the Millionaire Maker on DraftKings, so I was fortunate enough to have plenty of Ingram there.) I simply thought Leonard Fournette was a notably better play for just a little more in salary. I stand by my thought process there, even if it did not pay off.

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About the Author

  • JM Tohline (JMToWin)

  • JM Tohline (Tuh-lean) – DFS alias JMToWin – is a novelist and a DFS player who specializes in high-stakes MLB and NFL tourneys, with a strategy geared toward single-entry play in multi-entry tourneys. He joined the DFS scene at the beginning of the 2014 MLB season, and has since won five DFS championship seats and two separate trips to the Bahamas. His tendency to type a lot of words leads to a corresponding tendency to divulge all his DFS thoughts, strategies, and secrets…which is exactly what he does in his RotoGrinders articles and RotoAcademy courses. You can find JM on Twitter at JMToWin.

Comments

  • whodeyzach82

    Great stuff as always! You have me rethinking my Pats-Raiders megastack.

  • JMToWin

    • x2

      2014 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2016 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    @whodeyzach82 said...

    Great stuff as always! You have me rethinking my Pats-Raiders megastack.

    There are definitely ways it makes sense – and probably 95% of the other articles you read will make that case. But I think it’ll be the first place most people look, and will be super popular. And there are definitely clear cases to be made for it not paying off.

  • illinibob1977

    We can all see the “Obvious “ plays, your article helps me see past those. Would not have thought about Miami WR’s for example, but now I’m looking……good stuff.

  • Dizzo1992

    One of my favorites articles to read weekly thanks for your hard work! Any idea when the fanduel expert survey will be posted? That is also one of my favorites to read.

  • Theswans

    I appreciate the extended breakdown that includes your leaning to certain players more in cash, or tourneys, or larger tourneys, etc.!

  • Theman88

    I really liked you going more in depth with your thoughts on the numbers this week. The more there is to use with my own research the better. Thank you for the hard work!

  • srr50

    Love your articles – and i am rethinking my Stacking of philly (Wentz, Ajayi, Jeffrey) Also I had ignored Bruce Ellington, thanks for the heads up.

  • TheJuPrint

    Wait…this article can get better!? LOL. Great stuff as always my man. I also find the touch and target projections the most useful as well as your cash and/or tourney leans. I would maybe like to see at the bottom of the article a summary of players in cash and/or tourney consideration.

  • BigDYo

    Jim – if I was only allowed to read one piece of DFS goodness (which maybe I should start doing because I think I read too much and it hurts my decisioning making) – then it would be your Edge article. The thought process on your roster construction and your pre-kickoff writeup is so incredibly valuable. I am in year 3 of my DFS NFL (tourney only player) and being able to deconstruct the “pros” so I can better deconstruct my own thought process and decision making is far more valuable that just reading an article on top picks. I know this article takes a lot of time and effort for you, but I love it and keep refreshing my browser on thursday in hopes of getting to read it hot off the press

  • JMToWin

    • x2

      2014 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2016 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    @illinibob1977 said...

    We can all see the “Obvious “ plays, your article helps me see past those. Would not have thought about Miami WR’s for example, but now I’m looking……good stuff.

    Haha – the first half of this week’s article felt like a freaking wrestling match, trying to squeeze good plays out of those early games. But…man. I think we got some good stuff in those games!

    The later games are more obvious – but there are definitely some hidden gems up top this week.

  • rlub

    I appreciate what feels like an increase in distinction between cash/GPP plays as well as good Fan Duel versus DK plays.

  • rlub

    Delete

  • JMToWin

    • x2

      2014 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2016 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    @TheJuPrint said...

    I would maybe like to see at the bottom of the article a summary of players in cash and/or tourney consideration.

    This is typically an evolving list – and one thing I hate is to box myself into a thought I “have to side with because I told people I would.” I think posting my cash/tourney lists on Thursday night (which is about the earliest I would have time to get to it, after recovering from Edge researching/writing each week!) could cause trouble for my thought process and for the value I’m able to provide.

    With that said(!)…

    That’s one of the reasons the Edge was up a couple hours late this week! One of the ideas I was brainstorming through – for “how to make my contributions to RotoGrinders even better next year(!)” – was to put together an evolving Cash Game Consideration and a tiered Tourney Consideration list.

    This would be a list that goes up Saturday morning – when I have a fairly clear idea of where my head is (lately, I’ve been using Thursday to reread the Edge myself about five or six times, as I often miss stuff while researching/writing it that I pick up when rereading – then I use Friday to start working on actual construction). And the list would shift and grow every few hours, all the way up to kickoff.

    Would that be valuable?

    If you guys think so, let me know. I’ll take the idea for a test drive one weekend. (Can’t be this weekend because I’ll be in Nashville, and can’t be next weekend because I’ll be with family for Thanksgiving. But maybe we could test it out in Week 13 or Week 14.

  • rlub

    I love this article, but I also like easy-to-read lists. It would be great to get a weekly summary/grid/list of your favorite plays with notations about which site you like them on and if you like them for cash and/or GPPs. I don’t mind if this “grid” changes as your thoughts evolve throughout the week.

  • TheJuPrint

    That would be awesome! All of your thoughts are valuable and I’ve learned a ton reading your courses and articles and greatly appreciate you sharing with us. An evolving list is exactly what I had in mind but I didn’t want to come off as adding any more pressure to what you already provide. But I think most would agree, as much as we appreciate the edge you provide already, that getting an idea of your thought process as new information is released throughout the week would provide an even greater edge.

  • Jsgiles79

    I’ve been reading for years and this was maybe my favorite article ever. I kept thinking that throughout reading it, so when I saw you question at the end, I wanted to put my 2 cents in.

  • Elliotb005

    It would be good to hear how you decide your breakdown of GPP vs. cash exposure and if your breakdown of the slate alters that at all. Also enjoyed your breakdown of the milly maker winning lineup. Great work!

  • wllmll

    Love the evolving list idea

  • JimmyDick85

    Great stuff, as always, JM. Really appreciate the efforts you’ve made this year to allow your readers to get even deeper into your thought process. One thing I’d be curious to hear more about is your thoughts around further research through the rest of the week following publication of the NFL Edge, especially as it relates to players you have less conviction on (e.g. “I’m on the fence about player X, I plan to look deeper at A, B, and C over the next couple days”). As the week progresses, it feels like DFS players are exposed to more and more information and different takes on players, and while you can luck into the right information sometimes, it seems to introduce a lot of opportunities to be biased one way or the other based on the most recent take you might happen upon. So, long way of asking… after the 40+ hours that go into this piece, where do you go next?

    Specific to this week… I’d be interested to hear more of your thoughts on Cousins vs. the Saints pass defense. It’s definitely a pace down spot, as you point out, but while the Saints look good on DVOA numbers, how certain can we be that the pass defense is actually this good? To date this year, we have not seen them shut down a high quality QB (Newton, arguably, though he has been… volatile). Lattimore looks like a stud, but Cousins spreads the ball around so we aren’t worried about a top outside guy getting shut down, and targets tend to funnel to the middle of the field… seems to set up well for something like a Cousins-Thompson-Crowder GPP stack in a game where WAS is expected to be trailing…

  • SilversurferVII

    Thanks, Jim. Love this format and the deeper look into your thought process during roster construction. I’m learning a lot from you. BTW – if you don’t pay up for Brady at QB in cash this week, might one play Gabbert there? Thanks!

  • bignick

    WOW just WOW I love the new format, and want to thank you for all your incite I found it to be very useful.

  • nevershower

    @JMToWin said...

    This would be a list that goes up Saturday morning – when I have a fairly clear idea of where my head is (lately, I’ve been using Thursday to reread the Edge myself about five or six times, as I often miss stuff while researching/writing it that I pick up when rereading – then I use Friday to start working on actual construction). And the list would shift and grow every few hours, all the way up to kickoff.

    Would that be valuable?

    If you guys think so, let me know.

    JM, keep up the great work, as always. The list you mentioned would be an amazing asset for anyone playing DFS because of all the analysis & depth NFL Edge provides….often times there is SO MUCH info in the Edge (and Expert Square Table) that it can be challenging to narrow down my own list, so to get a glimpse of what a pro player is thinking on Saturday would be extremely valuable!

  • teamwillow

    I’m going all in on the Broncos Bengals game. When I hit everyone will be shocked.

  • DaPharmer

    It sounds like it could be of tremendous value, especially when coupled with your thoughts in the Edge!

  • hde0703

    Like the insights to your thought process! The vid series you and Gimino made are PRICELESS I’ve watched them several times this year!

    I’m in for the list or grid idea as well, with FD and DK distinctions, cash vs tourney plays, and a “notes” or brief digest of why you pick this player or that player

    Keep it up and I’ll keep subscribing

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