JMToWin's NFL Edge: Week 11
Each week this NFL season, JMToWin will break down every game on the NFL slate from top to bottom, with a look at game flow, player matchups, coaching tendencies, DFS strategy, and anything else that shows up in his research that might give you an edge on the slate. Widely regarded as the most in-depth, DFS-specific article in the industry, this top-to-bottom breakdown is just what you need in order to conquer the slate and take home money each week!
Week 10 In Review
What a weird week we had!
Hopefully you survived – but I strongly encourage you to not get too down on your play, and to not adjust too drastically, if Week 10 went poorly for you. It was a strange week, with plenty of outlier occurrences – and with plenty of “best plays” that simply did not pan out.
At the same time, there were lessons to be learned. For yet another week, we saw a high-end player with locked-in usage (Mark Ingram) bounce back from a poor week…and draw minuscule ownership for literally no reason other than recency bias. As I said in this article last week: If you had been playing Ingram lately, there was every reason to play him again in Week 10. We should continue to keep an eye out for situations like this (I believe this is three consecutive weeks in which we have uncovered exactly one such situation in this article). Sometimes, a chalky player bombs because he should not have been chalk in the first place, and we should move away from that guy in future weeks. But we probably get 10 or 15 instances each season in which an elite play bombs simply due to variance…and everyone jumps off that play the next week.
I didn’t end up using Ingram on my main team. (As is usually the case, I had over 90% of my investment on a single team – though as most of you have heard me say over the years, I build around 80 to 100 teams throughout the week, messing around with thoughts and ideas, as I hunt for my “main team.” Most weeks, I throw those extra teams into the Millionaire Maker on DraftKings, so I was fortunate enough to have plenty of Ingram there.) I simply thought Leonard Fournette was a notably better play for just a little more in salary. I stand by my thought process there, even if it did not pay off.
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