JMToWin's NFL Edge: Week 14

Each week this NFL season, JMToWin will break down every game on the NFL slate from top to bottom, with a look at game flow, player matchups, coaching tendencies, DFS strategy, and anything else that shows up in his research that might give you an edge on the slate. Widely regarded as the most in-depth, DFS-specific article in the industry, this top-to-bottom breakdown is just what you need in order to conquer the slate and take home money each week!

Looking Toward Week 14

The discussion above – about “not overthinking things,” but “still making bold moves” – fits wonderfully with this week’s slate.

As we make our way through this week’s games, you will see that there are a lot of “really obvious, really great plays.” In my opinion, this is a fantastic week to go chalky in cash games (or, at least, what I expect will be “chalky”).

Consequently, it’s a great week to either A) go heavier in cash games and lighter in tourneys, or B) go heavier-than-normal in tourneys – while loading up on “the good plays no one is likely to be on.”

I’ll likely lean with Option A myself – going heavier in cash games and lighter in tourneys. This week sets up well for me to go heavy in cash, with my style of play – in which I worry less about ownership, and more about “Who I feel the best plays genuinely are.” Some weeks (the Robert Woods 40-point week, for example), “Who I feel the best plays genuinely are” also happens to be super contrarian plays. On those week, it makes sense for me to attack tourneys more heavily. But on a week such as this – in which I feel the (expected) chalk is super strong – it makes sense for me to stick with the style of play I am best at (i.e., “Picking who I feel are the best plays, regardless of ownership”) – even if that means landing on chalky guys. And as such, I expect to be fairly chalky this week – and to maybe pull back to just the $1500 and $333 tourneys on DraftKings, while throwing a ton of money into double-ups.

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About the Author

  • JM Tohline (JMToWin)

  • JM Tohline (Tuh-lean) – DFS alias JMToWin – is a novelist and a DFS player who specializes in high-stakes MLB and NFL tourneys, with a strategy geared toward single-entry play in multi-entry tourneys. He joined the DFS scene at the beginning of the 2014 MLB season, and has since won five DFS championship seats and two separate trips to the Bahamas. His tendency to type a lot of words leads to a corresponding tendency to divulge all his DFS thoughts, strategies, and secrets…which is exactly what he does in his RotoGrinders articles and RotoAcademy courses. You can find JM on Twitter at JMToWin.


  • rayboy212

    Great article!!! Brand new to this, at the end of the article when it mentions “That’s enough to make Thomas a strong play on the “smaller slates”, what exactly is that referring to (what is a “smaller slate” and a “main slate”? Thanks in advance anyone for the help!

  • rlub

    @rayboy212 said...

    Great article!!! Brand new to this, at the end of the article when it mentions “That’s enough to make Thomas a strong play on the “smaller slates”, what exactly is that referring to (what is a “smaller slate” and a “main slate”? Thanks in advance anyone for the help!

    A smaller slate usually refers to a contest grouping of only 2-4 games to choose players from where a larger slate includes contests with 9+ games from which to choose.

  • rayboy212

    Very much appreciated, thank you!!!

  • mike42

    So last week I figured you may use Duke based on the rankings and I wish I could have able to discuss my thesis as to why he was a bad play and will remain a bad play moving forward. Prior to Coleman getting healthy and Gordon getting sober, Duke was essentially the number one receiver. Now with those two in the LU, not to mention Njoku’s increased involvement, his role is less secure moving forward and his value is diminished. I keep telling people that Cleveland went from having scrubs at WR to athletic freaks. Between WR and TE they now have the best 3 athletes any team has ever put on the field at the same time, increasing Kizers value but making Duke an afterthought. I think the Cleveland offense will be fun to watch moving forward . Thanks and good luck this week.

  • GordonsGecko

    The Steelers-Ravens game is not on the FD main slate this week.

  • illinibob1977

    I was dismissive of Alex Smith when I began looking at this slate, as I have been of KC for a few weeks. But when Adam L came out with Smith as his “start of the week”, I was curious to see your take. Then you never (directly) mention his name! Maybe in Sat. update you could throw us a bone re: Smith? Thks JM.

  • Tank_91

    • 2017 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    Like your thoughts on Gore this week, and Mack for that matter. I was tinkering with them on Thursday slates already. Your right that it may not be worth the risk of their low upside on this slate, but I think one of them will end up on a team or two for me. This is a strange week, I’ve found a couple of really nice value plays (Gore, T. Taylor, Westbrook) then I realize I don’t really have to go that deep. Should be a fun week, thanks as always for your hard work.

  • Ncreighton91

    • 529

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #98

      RG Tiered Ranking

    They changed it because they wanted the championship to reflect the main slate.

  • Fetty7132

    Note that peters was suspended by the team so there is nothing to overturn

  • Horseplayer1975

    JM, with Blue out, I have been considering Cheat Coding the HOU RB’s for cash, Miller/Ellington in a pace up game, the total is on the way up still (45.5 now up 3 since open). Could we project 30+ touches between the 2 maybe more if Ellington plays some slot? NOt bad for $9.4K. Add in Gio and $12.5K buys you 50-60 touches with all 3 capable receivers? After that, playing a low priced QB gives you the ability to play basically any WR/TE/DST you want. It also gives a unique LU constructions which I find extremely useful in H2H.

  • Canimal31

    JM, is not Miller in a similar spot as to Howard last week? I just don’t get the love for Miller. But, now I am afraid I am missing something. SF has actually held opposing RB’s -1.8 points below their average over the past 5 games. All year, the points they have given up have been more about volume than efficiency. Now, with Jimmy G, the Texans aren’t likely to be playing with a lead, which could hurt Miller’s rushing even more. Not to mention he is just a guy. I guess we are hoping that Miller makes up for it with catches. But, with Fuller back, those could go to Ellington instead. Seems risky to me.

  • Canimal31

    Re: Shepard, with Sean Lee back, the Cowboys run defense gets a big boost and they played much better last week by switching to Kavon Frazier over Byron Jones on run downs. Dallas will likely have success on the ground and play for a lead. But, the Giants will likely only have success throwing the ball. This should keep Shepard’s floor where it was the previous two games played with Manning.

  • oqwin1

    Any concern with possible bad weather for the Cleveland games with Kizer and Gordon being the chalk?

  • Austin_Stone

    Anyone got some late advice for me. TY Hilton or Demariyus Thomas??

  • Austin_Stone

    Anyone got some late advice for me. TY Hilton or Demariyus Thomas??

  • Horseplayer1975

    Weather report for Buffalo is terrible…

  • Horseplayer1975

    Weather report for Buffalo is terrible…

  • Fetty7132

    You muffed hard on rudolph

  • mtjroto79

    “ Outside of maybe taking an “upside” shot on Jordan Howard

    good call

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