JMToWin's NFL Edge: Week 14
Each week this NFL season, JMToWin will break down every game on the NFL slate from top to bottom, with a look at game flow, player matchups, coaching tendencies, DFS strategy, and anything else that shows up in his research that might give you an edge on the slate. Widely regarded as the most in-depth, DFS-specific article in the industry, this top-to-bottom breakdown is just what you need in order to conquer the slate and take home money each week!
Looking Toward Week 14
The discussion above – about “not overthinking things,” but “still making bold moves” – fits wonderfully with this week’s slate.
As we make our way through this week’s games, you will see that there are a lot of “really obvious, really great plays.” In my opinion, this is a fantastic week to go chalky in cash games (or, at least, what I expect will be “chalky”).
Consequently, it’s a great week to either A) go heavier in cash games and lighter in tourneys, or B) go heavier-than-normal in tourneys – while loading up on “the good plays no one is likely to be on.”
I’ll likely lean with Option A myself – going heavier in cash games and lighter in tourneys. This week sets up well for me to go heavy in cash, with my style of play – in which I worry less about ownership, and more about “Who I feel the best plays genuinely are.” Some weeks (the Robert Woods 40-point week, for example), “Who I feel the best plays genuinely are” also happens to be super contrarian plays. On those week, it makes sense for me to attack tourneys more heavily. But on a week such as this – in which I feel the (expected) chalk is super strong – it makes sense for me to stick with the style of play I am best at (i.e., “Picking who I feel are the best plays, regardless of ownership”) – even if that means landing on chalky guys. And as such, I expect to be fairly chalky this week – and to maybe pull back to just the $1500 and $333 tourneys on DraftKings, while throwing a ton of money into double-ups.
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