JMToWin's NFL Edge: Week 17

Each week this NFL season, JMToWin will break down every game on the NFL slate from top to bottom, with a look at game flow, player matchups, coaching tendencies, DFS strategy, and anything else that shows up in his research that might give you an edge on the slate. Widely regarded as the most in-depth, DFS-specific article in the industry, this top-to-bottom breakdown is just what you need in order to conquer the slate and take home money each week!

A Quick Note On Week 17

People freak out a bit too much about Week 17, but it is certainly true that we need to be aware of the situation in which each team finds itself. Because people tend to swing too far toward crazy plays this weekend, it has typically been one of my best weekends of the DFS season – by simply sticking to the plays that make the most sense on paper.

Of course, we’ll touch on the unusual situations, where necessary, as we walk through this week’s article. But remember: this is like any other week. You are trying to make what you feel are the actual best plays you can make.

People always make a big deal about “teams that have nothing to play for in Week 17.”

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About the Author

  • JM Tohline (JMToWin)

  • JM Tohline (Tuh-lean) – DFS alias JMToWin – is a novelist and a DFS player who specializes in high-stakes MLB and NFL tourneys, with a strategy geared toward single-entry play in multi-entry tourneys. He joined the DFS scene at the beginning of the 2014 MLB season, and has since won five DFS championship seats and two separate trips to the Bahamas. His tendency to type a lot of words leads to a corresponding tendency to divulge all his DFS thoughts, strategies, and secrets…which is exactly what he does in his RotoGrinders articles and RotoAcademy courses. You can find JM on Twitter at JMToWin.

Comments

  • obmonk

    JM,

    Good morning, thanks for your insight, the foundation, and mechanics for developing a successful process. 2017 marks my 3rd year playing DFS, but my 1st year taking it seriously (working on an intentional process). I have seen my winnings dip then pick back up incrementally as I develop my process. However, that’s no different than Ex. A successful pitcher changing his pitch because long-term he will get better results. Initially, his stats will drop, but then it will pick back up and go further. I’m not even close to where I want to be (lol), but I’m starting to develop and read the map better. I will continue to read, research and fine tune my process in preparation for next season. Going forward, hopefully, I can continue to reach out to you for insight and not so much picks (because I need to understand for myself). You’re the best. #trusttheprocess Thanks, obmonk

  • doink09

    JM,

    I’ve really enjoyed your lineup review. It helps me to rethink my decisions and where I may have been thinking wrong the previous week. Quick question about my Week 16 cash lineup. I locked in on Joe Mixon last week. I felt his volume, value and matchup made him a great cash option. He seemed well on his way to a big day before getting hurt. I noticed in your review that you didn’t have him in your lineups. Is there anything specific that you saw that kept you away from him or did he just not seem to fit with what you were working with? I truly believe if he doesn’t get hurt he gets to 20 DK points and my cash lineup is profitable in all matchups. Instead I end up on the edge of most of my 50/50 contests. Just trying to see if I may have missed an angle that you saw. Thanks again for all you do.

  • ChiHawks28

    Excellent article. I don’t know why I haven’t read it for most of the year. Suggestion for next season- break up each game into separate pages so members can find individual game analysis quickly.

  • Oldschool92

    Thanks for all your hard work and have a great holiday. Have really appreciated your insights this year even if I have had my worst gpp year to date. Cash came early though in cash games and i’m set again with RG and JM2Win help.

  • nevershower

    @ChiHawks28 said...

    Excellent article. I don’t know why I haven’t read it for most of the year. Suggestion for next season- break up each game into separate pages so members can find individual game analysis quickly.

    ….we wouldn’t want you to have to scroll down for 2-3 seconds to get to the next game. Sheesh

  • Chazemclean

    JM-

    As always, you and Silva are my must reads. Thank you! Will you help me with something I am not quite getting – why would a guy who is suitable for a small field tourney not be appropriate for a large field tourney? Is it simply because a guy who might go mostly overlooked in a small field will almost certainly not go overlooked in a larger field, or is there some subtler nuance?

  • JMToWin

    • x2

      2014 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2016 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    @Chazemclean said...

    JM-

    As always, you and Silva are my must reads. Thank you! Will you help me with something I am not quite getting – why would a guy who is suitable for a small field tourney not be appropriate for a large field tourney? Is it simply because a guy who might go mostly overlooked in a small field will almost certainly not go overlooked in a larger field, or is there some subtler nuance?

    Great question! To clarify:

    For me, cash game plays are viable in ALL tourneys. Plays I categorize as good for “small-field tourneys” are good for ALL tourneys. It’s just large-field tourney plays that are exclusive to one category. Those are higher-risk guys who I would not play in smaller-field stuff (though with my style of play, I generally leave guys like that alone altogether).

  • JMToWin

    • x2

      2014 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2016 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    @doink09 said...

    JM,

    I’ve really enjoyed your lineup review. It helps me to rethink my decisions and where I may have been thinking wrong the previous week. Quick question about my Week 16 cash lineup. I locked in on Joe Mixon last week. I felt his volume, value and matchup made him a great cash option. He seemed well on his way to a big day before getting hurt. I noticed in your review that you didn’t have him in your lineups. Is there anything specific that you saw that kept you away from him or did he just not seem to fit with what you were working with? I truly believe if he doesn’t get hurt he gets to 20 DK points and my cash lineup is profitable in all matchups. Instead I end up on the edge of most of my 50/50 contests. Just trying to see if I may have missed an angle that you saw. Thanks again for all you do.

    Mixon wasn’t on my teams simply because I went another direction. He was a great play, as evidenced by what Gio did after he left. Just one of those unfortunate instances that occur sometimes in NFL. Sucks when injuries strike!

  • Smoeller16

    Omg so long but so informative. You da bomb – the manning whisperer

  • Chazemclean

    Got it! Thanks! Travel safely!

  • tin8shusd

    JM, fantastic article as always! Would you please elaborate a bit on this?

    “but I tend to focus more heavily on tourneys in Week 17”

    On such a humongous slate I’d assume your volume in cash to be at least the same if not more than usual.

    Thanks!

  • rlub

    JM,
    I want to like the Detroit passing game (Stafford and Jones in particular), but am concerned about the motivation factor. This is their last game of the season and their first game playing with nothing truly at stake. Shouldn’t there be significant concerns as far as 60 minute effort by the Lions (despite the players liking their coach)? On the other hand, isn’t there some reason to look towards a play like Golladay as a player that they want to give more time on the field while he’ll be giving maximum effort? Thoughts?

  • gouofi

    Any idea when the Grid is coming out?

  • domsaq

    Ctrl-F

  • Jsgiles79

    JM, what do you think about the Cleveland Defense at only $3k on Fanduel?? I would really, really, appreciate your insight here.

  • Thecowboy23

    Ctrl-F works wonders my friend! :)

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