2023 John Deere Classic Classic Golf Betting Tips: TPC Deere Run Course Preview

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2023-07-04 13:53:32

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down golf betting tips for the 2023 John Deere Classic. Use the PrizePicks promo code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on PGA DFS Pick’em entries this week!

Prior to heading abroad, the PGA Tour makes one last domestic stop at TPC Deere Run for the John Deere Classic. A wildly weaker field, the John Deere Classic presents an opportunity for the rest of the field to earn FedEx Cup points. Last season, J.T. Poston put together a ball-striking clinic ahead of his second win on tour.

Rickie Fowler hoisted a trophy again in what turned out to be a birdie festival at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. The course will be set up for scoring again at TPC Deere Run. Will another short-odds golfer win? Can a longshot come through? Let’s open with betting odds and a look at TPC Deere Run.

2023 John Deere Classic at BetMGM Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – July 3rd – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of The John Deere Classic:

• 2022 – J.T. Poston (-21)
• 2021 – Lucas Glover (-19)
• 2019 – Dylan Frittelli (-21)
• 2018 – Michael Kim (-27)
• 2017 – Bryson DeChambeau (-18)
• 2016 – Ryan Moore (-22)
• 2015 – Jordan Spieth (-20)
• 2014 – Brian Harman (-22)

156 players will tee it up at TPC Deere Run with the top 65 and ties playing this weekend. Nine of the top 50 in the OWGR will play this week highlighted by Cameron Young, Russell Henley, and Denny McCarthy. Denny is one of the betting favorites after back-to-back excellent finishes and a win seemingly on the precipice. With so few of the world’s best contending ahead of The Open Championship in a few weeks, this field is an opportunity for younger players.

Young players? Ludvig Aberg will absolutely be featured heavily during this week’s golf coverage. The budding superstar has performed exceptionally well in his first starts on tour and already seems poised for a breakout. This is the type of field that suits an emerging star. Aberg is priced well, though. If you are betting on a breakout at this event, you will pay the full price.

Let’s take a look at the golf course.

2023 John Deere Classic Betting Preview

• Course: TPC Deere Run
• Date: July 6 – 9
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,289
• Greens: Bentgrass

This week’s golfers head to Silvis, Illinois to take on TPC Deere Run. TPC Deere Run does not offer much in the way of defense. A bit short, the course offers doglegs and undulating fairways. With winning scores at -18 over the years, we should not expect players to be threatened much this week.

Birdies, birdies, and more birdies. This week, we are looking for guys who can score in bunches. Obviously, opportunities and SG: Approach are important as players will need to dial it up with the irons to produce as many scoring opportunities as possible.

The course features three Par 5’s and they are the primary scoring opportunities for players. Make no mistake, players must make birdies on these holes to have a chance. The Par 4’s are not particularly long with only four at 450 yards or more. The toughest hole is a Par 4 longer than 500 yards. Tread water on this hole and score elsewhere.

Similar to the Rocket Mortgage Classic, the winner at this event must be able to roll the rock. Dylan Fritteli and Michael Kim gained north of 7 and 13 strokes on the green, respectively in their victories. Denny McCarthy leads the field in putting. Other notable proficient putters in good form are Nick Taylor, Taylor Moore, Eric Cole, and Chez Reavie.

Further, wedges are going to play a key role in this course. Getting off of the tee should not be too challenging on this course. Instead, players will look for strategic places to leave the golf ball to have a wedge in at the right angle. The key proximity range at TPC Deere Run is 125-150 yards. Chris Kirk and Russell Henley sit atop this week’s field in strokes gained in this category.

SG: Approach is the paramount stat in our model but we will include Good Drives, Putting, BOB%, Par 5 scoring, and our key proximity range. That said, who are we considering for golf betting this week?

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Golfers To Watch This Week

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Denny McCarthy +1400

Oh, Denny. You almost binked us quite the week at the Travelers. After cashing a FRL ticket for us, Denny maintained a spot atop the leaderboard until Sunday when he got stuck in neutral. With the field scoring a ton of birdies, Denny could not keep up despite cashing a Top 10.

Denny is priced as the top dog in this field. Normally, I am not a fan of allocating a ton of money at the top of the board. That said, I can feel FOMO setting in when considering my final betting card. Denny makes plenty of sense as your OAD pick if you still have him and seems like a good target for matchups if you can find favorable odds.

Betting Denny means going down the board for the rest of the card. The McCarthy decision is more of a card construction question than a talent question. Tune in to see what we decide to do on Twitter.

Nick Taylor +4000

Nick Taylor made an eagle putt for the ages when we last saw him. With Canada on his shoulders, Taylor came through in a back-and-forth playoff with Tommy Fleetwood. This course feels designed for Nick Taylor.

Taylor is second in the field in BOB% and 9th in Par 5 scoring. With scoring at a likely high, we need players that can go on runs. We can’t forget that Taylor struggled in his opening round in Canada and then lit up the lamp for three straight days to when the Canadian Open. If he starts off strong, Taylor can wire this event.

He is definitely in strong consideration for our first bet on the card if we want to stick in the mid-range. If we want to include Denny and Taylor, we will have to go bargain bin shopping to fill out our betting card.

Chez Reavie +5000

Chez Reavie has been in form of late and does exactly what is required at TPC Deere Run — hit greens and make putts.

Reavie brings plenty of experience to this course — playing the event ten times over the years. While he has missed a few cuts he typically performs pretty well including a fifth-place finish years ago. Without a doubt, Reavie is going to know where to leave the golf ball and know which angles are required to approach greens. If his putter gets hot, he is a bargain at 50/1.

Opening with Reavie and Taylor in the mid-range would give us plenty of leeway to spend on additional golfers. Reavie would be a very sneaky OAD play but features as a strong top-finisher bet and matchup play when you can find him at positive odds.

Michael Kim +6600

A former winner in good form? Need I say more?

Kim has top-ten finishes at Wells Fargo and Charles Schwab recently and lacks holes in his game over his last 36 rounds. While he isn’t top five in any categories of concern, he also does not possess any blemishes. He is ninth in Good Drives and hovers in the top 25 in many of our categories. Obviously familiar with the course as a previous winner, Kim feels like a steal at 66/1 this week.

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.

Image Credit: Getty Images