Justin Rose Leads at Colonial. Is it Time to Bet on His Golf Major Odds?
Before Thursday, Justin Rose was last seen shooting a 75 at The Players Championship. It was yet another disappointing round as Rose was on his way toward a third consecutive missed until the PGA responded to rising coronavirus concerns by canceling the tournament and suspending the season indefinitely.
Fast forward three months to the Tour’s highly-anticipated return — the Englishman co-leads a star-studded field at Colonial Country Club after a flawless 7-under 63 in the first round of the Charles Schwab Challenge.
Rose’s impressive Thursday marked only his third time to shoot in the 60s since returning from Asia in January. So what changed for Rose during quarantine?
As we touched on in betting picks for the Charles Schwab Challenge, the 39-year-old swapped out his Honma clubs ahead of the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March. Then in May, he made the club change official, announcing he was parting ways the Japanese club manufacturer.
Unlike Jordan Spieth, whom oddsmakers moved from 45-1 to 32-1 before Thursday, Rose was not a popular bet to win this week.
Those who had the foresight to bet on Rose 55-1 first-round leader have some money to play with over the next few days. Those who only bet on Rose to win the Charles Charles Schwab Challenge, like me, just hope he can hold on.
There’s still a lot of golf to be played and many putts to be made, but it’s not far-fetched think Rose can pull off a win. After all, he won here in 2018 with the second-lowest four-round score in the course’s rich history.
If he wins again, the reaction won’t be typical of a 50-1 longshot. Pundits and U.S. sportsbooks alike will recalibrate, acknowledging the golfer’s pedigree and long-term stats, and adjust accordingly. Looking at live odds through Thursday, which at one point made Rose a +750 favorite to win at Colonial, it’s clear they’re already doing so.
So yes, it’s only 18 holes, but is too soon to start betting on Justin Rose’s futures odds for the upcoming golf majors?
Golf Betting Odds: Is Justin Rose Undervalued?
PGA Championship – Rose +5000
U.S. Open – Rose +3300
The Masters – Rose +3300
At least momentarily, Rosey’s major championship odds on golf betting boards sit similarly to where they were Wednesday for the Charles Schwab Challenge. And considering 16 of the top 20 golfers in the world are at Colonial, we don’t have to make any drastic adjustments for the strength of the upcoming fields.
As of now, you’ll find Rose 50-1 to win the PGA Championship at Bet365 and 41-1 at FanDuel Sportsbook, which is the first major on the golf schedule. He is 33-1 to win the U.S. Open one month later at Winged Foot (Rose’s lone major title came at the U.S. Open in 2013). But Rose’s best chance at winning a major in 2020 maybe The Masters. Oddsmakers at PointsBet seem to agree, listing him 20-1 to walk away with a green jacket.
Rose already has a pair of runners-up at Augusta and consistently plays well at the venue. Though he missed the cut in 2019, Rose was a top-four betting favorite with 12-1 odds ahead of the tournament, per golfodds.com. All things considered, 33-1 to win the 2020 Masters at BetMGM certainly looks like a generous price.
Regardless of what happens between now and the final round of the Charles Schwab Challenge, it is tough to imagine a scenario where Rose’s major odds do not shorten. At worst, a mediocre finish will keep Rose’s odds the same.
When it comes to betting on golf futures, timing is everything. Now is as good of a time as any to lock in current co-leader at the Charles Schwab Challenge Justin Rose to have a phenomenal 2020 major season.
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